Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition. Are the Patriots finished? Why isn't Kareem Hunt catching passes? Is it time to trade for LeVeon Bell? And why isn't Kenyan Drake running for more yards?
Question 1
Now that's Burkhead is injured, and Edelman plus Gordon will be available in another week or so, how do you see the Patriots offense evolving? With Michel, White and Barner, it seems like they don't have that big back to bring in for short-yardage plays. I assume Edelman will already be in game-shape and won't be rusty, so he should contribute immediately. Gronk will continue to draw double-coverage unless Hogan and/or Gordon can draw coverage to the outside, longer routes. This is a great opportunity for Michel but, as you've noted, he hasn't been impressive so far. I guess this leaves the Patriots offense as much of a mystery as ever, albeit with a much weaker running attack than we're used to seeing!
Drew Paterson (Ferndale, WA)
They’ve got a lot of issues to figure out. The defense isn’t very good. I don’t see them putting together their usual top-10 running game. They don’t have a lot of sizzle in their receiving corps, where they’ve been relying on three guys who didn’t ever really do much with other teams (Hogan, Phillip Dorsett, Cordarrelle Patterson). Tom Brady is 41 and Rob Gronkowski is 29 – they’re not as good as they’ve been in the past. It’s going to be very difficult for them to make the necessary corrections to get this team to an 8th straight AFC Championship game. Best I can say on their behalf if that all of the other teams in that conference also have flaws. Kansas City has allowed more yards than anyone. Jacksonville has Blake Bortles at quarterback. I wonder if the Chargers could cobble together a good defense when Joey Bosa comes back?
Question 2
I am curious what you think of Kareem Hunt's situation. It seems to me the downfield success of Patrick Mahomes is having a direct effect on Hunt. He isn't being targeted nearly as much Mahomes doesn't seem to have the dump off mentality (nor has he needed it frankly). Do you expect Hunt's stats to remain on pace with his first three weeks for the rest of the season? If so, I might try to trade him. My other running backs are Kamara, Ingram, Chris Carson and Phillip Lindsay. PPR league.
Johnny Bazzano (Santa Rosa, CA)
Hunt has caught only one pass for 6 yards in the first three games. Pretty discouraging. But let’s give it some time. It’s a long season, and no doubt a bunch of the remaining defenses will play them differently. I expect Hunt will catch plenty of passes before we’re through. In about a half of a game’s worth of action in the preseason, Hunt caught 4 passes for 47 yards. He caught 53 passes last season.
Question 3
What is going on in Miami? Is Kenyan Drake ever going to get the season started? Your original PPR projections for the draft had Drake much higher than his production thus far should have warranted, agreed?
TIM ZEUCH (Mason, OH)
Drake so far is averaging 35 rushing and 14 receiving yards, with one touchdown. That’s very disappointing, particularly with Miami being 3-0 and having played back-to-back games against lesser defenses (Jets, Raiders). I thought Oakland might have the worst run defense in the league, set Drake and Frank Gore combined to carry 11 times for 15 yards in that game. At home. Inexplicable. But I am not giving up on Drake just yet. Rosters vary, but you may even want to use him this week. He’s got a lot of big-play ability, and we saw that as recently as in the preseason. This week they’re playing a slow, struggling defense. I could see Drake ripping off a long gain or two at New England.
Question 4
When is it time to trade for LeVeon Bell? Owners seem to be getting tried of holding him and are offering him in trade in every league I’m in. Is it time to explore a trade? Also, what is a fair price for him?
dan renzi (Moorestown, NJ)
I would think this thing gets resolved before too much longer. He’s probably ready to play some ball and make some money, and the Steelers probably wouldn’t mind being done with him. But I don’t think Bell has substantial value. If he were to show up somewhere today (either in Pittsburgh or for another team) I wouldn’t be confident he’d put up top-10 numbers. With the Steelers, I would expect he would share time with James Conner. And I don’t see other teams where he’d show up and be a top-10 guy. There was a report that the Jets might look into a trade; I don’t think he’d put up top-15 numbers in that offense. If we were walking into a draft today, I would think Bell would be chosen in the mid-to-late 20s, in there with guys like Chris Carson, Derrick Henry and Lamar Miller. For asking price, I think that’s about fair.
Question 5
League where we have to carry two QBs, I currently have Rivers & Wilson. I'm leaning towards dropping Wilson for Winston. I just don't feel like Seattle has it this year ... coupled with the fact that Winston will at some point get his job back. Basically, either of them would keep the seat warm while Rivers starts unless one were to prove otherwise. Your thoughts?
Jeff Carter (Franklin, TN)
Rivers and Wilson are both definitely starting quarterbacks in your league. I would be leery of cutting one of them to make room for someone who might not play at all this year. Said player might come back and start multiple games against you. If and when it becomes more certain that Winston will become a starter than you might have to make a move – he could post better numbers than both Rivers and Wilson.
Question 6
Watching the Thursday night game last night, Baker Mayfield looked pretty solid. The whole offense seemed to rally around him. He made some really good reads Where do you slot Mayfield in the QB mix going forward?
Jason Brater (Ann Arbor, MI)
It was a nice debut. He definitely sparked them. But there are a lot of good quarterbacks out there. If I were walking into a draft today, I wouldn’t be thinking at all about making Mayfield one of the first 20 selected (I think I’ve got him 26th among quarterbacks on my current board).
Question 7
What are your feelings on Breida in a dynasty format? Is he just a guy benefiting from a good system, holding the seat warm until McKinnon (or Tevin Coleman, or LeVeon Bell, or whomever) takes the job next season? Or do you see him as a legit starting NFL back? I've been getting a lot of offers for him and I'm having a hard time deciding what his long-term value is. Appreciate your thoughts.
Bill Rehor (Culver City, CA)
He’s not as big as you’d like (5-11, 190), and he’s not a great pass catcher. So I don’t think he’s ever going to be a full-time, workhorse type back. But I think he’s shown he can be a viable part of a one-two punch. He averaged 4.4 yards per carry last year. Of the 47 running backs with at least 100 carries last year, only eight had a better YPC. Now he’s playing even better. He’s splitting time with Alfred Morris, and he’s the more dynamic half of that tandem. Had Jerick McKinnon not blown out his knee, Breida probably would be splitting time with him and doing the same kind of things – I think he’s a better runner than McKinnon. I expect Breida will probably be part of a one-two punch for the 49ers in 2019.
Question 8
Week 4 brings hard lineup decisions. I have to choose between Chris Carson, Tyler Boyd and John Brown for my flex spot. I hate Pete Carroll; he doesn't seem to know what he is doing (but Carson did touch the ball 34 times last week). So which player do you trust the most? I think Boyd might be the safest but I prefer to start RBs with good matchups like Seattle has against the Cards.
David Kennedy (Steamburg, NY)
To me, Arizona’s defense looks pretty sound. It limited Jordan Howard to 2.5 yards per carry, and the previous week it held Todd Gurley to 2.2. I don’t see Carson ripping them up. I would rather go with one of the pass catchers, and they look very similar. Both play for AFC North teams playing as underdogs on the road in games that I think will be shootouts. It wouldn’t surprise at all if for both Bengals-Falcons and Ravens-Steelers, both teams score 27-plus points. Boyd has been awfully hot recently with 6 catches for 90-plus yards and a touchdown in back-to-back games. Brown is the top guy in Baltimore, and I know he’s got some long touchdowns in him. They’re facing defenses that both have allowed over 330 passing yards and 3-plus touchdowns in back-to-back games.
Question 9
I have the #1 waiver wire spot (it doesn't reset). Should I pick up Mayfield or wait for a RB to pop later in the season? We have a 12-team league and start only one QB. It is a keeper league, so I can keep him next year for $6 when our cap is $100. How good do you think he is going to be going forward?
Eric Scolnick (Redmond, WA)
That No. 1 waiver wire spot is solid gold real estate. When you’ve got it, you’ve got to make sure to make it count. I don’t see that with Mayfield. Decent enough debut, but it’s really difficult to get to the level where he would be a starting quarterback in a 12-team league. Unlikely, I think, that you would want to pay $6 for him next year. There are a lot of good quarterbacks out there. I did a pair of auctions last month in 12-team leagues. This is PPR scoring and 12 teams, with a $200 cap. In both of those leagues, only four quarterbacks went for more than 6 percent of a team’s cap: Rodgers, Wilson, Watson and Brady.
Question 10
I already have Mahomes. Is it worth shipping off Tom Brady for a chance on Josh Gordon in a trade?
DAVID ENGBERG (Saint Augusta, MN)
I am on board with trading Tom Brady. You can start Mahomes every week. But I would need to get more than Josh Gordon in return. Gordon has a lot of talent, but with him not knowing the offense at all and having not played much football in the last four years, I’m expecting he’ll be a lightly use deep threat – hardly even worth a roster spot in typical fantasy formats, I think.
Question 11
I am in a 12-team keeper league. I am looking to pick up a WR and would like your help. Available : DeSean Jackson, John Brown, Tyler Boyd, Quincy Enunwa, Geronimo Allison, Keelan Cole and Cameron Meredith. Out of this group, who will help my roster this year? For the next three years?
mark meyer ()
If you took all of those guys, it wouldn’t be a bad receiving corps. So I guess we need not worry too much about 2019 and 2020 (if there are players like this there for the taking right now, then I assume there will also be decent guys available in future years). I don’t see a ton of difference between the first six you list, so keep in mind that there’s probably at least a 75 percent chance that the receiver you chose won’t be as good as at least one of the others your leave behind. But I would latch onto the receiver who’s paired to the best quarterback – give me Geronimo Allison.
Question 12
Our league has a taxi of four rookies that you can store players for as long as you want. I currently have Chris Warren, Ito Smith, Anthony Miller, and TreQuan Smith. Do you like Josh Adams ahead of any of those four in 2019, 2020 or beyond? Thanks for all you do!
Dennis Thomas (Royal Oaks, CA)
Anthony Miller and TreQuan Smith are definitely going to be players. It’s just a matter of giving them time to develop. Those are your top 2. With the three running backs, you’re hoping that maybe one of them develops into something at some point. Maybe. Smith was a fourth-round pick and weighs only 195 pounds. He seems to be doing OK so far – probably will be the No. 2 back in Atlanta next year (assuming Tevon Coleman signs somewhere). With Warren and Adams, we’re talking about guys who weren’t even drafted. Warren banged out a bunch of yards in the preseason, but he’s pretty slow and is going to spend the year on injured reserve. Josh Adams looked pretty ordinary in the preseason to me; they signed him to the active roster last week, and he banged out 30 yards on 6 carries against the Colts in his first game. That’s not enough for me to put him ahead of Warren or Ito Smith.
Question 13
I've been starting Kenyan Drake while Javorious Allen racks up the points while riding my bench. TD's are over weighted in my league but, with only 8 or 10 touches a game, I don't know if I can risk putting him in for Drake. Ekler or Riddick would be my other options. Also, I see you are high on Shepard at WR. I have Green and, if he can't go, Shepard would be a no brainer to replace him. However, I have also been starting Cooper, Wood and Allison. Would you suggest starting Shepard over any of them? I also have Sanu on my bench but with the emergence of Ridley I figure his targets will suffer. Thanks for your help!
David Hogshire (Plymouth, MN)
Evan Engram is out, so I have considerable interest in Sterling Shepard this week. Giants are at home against New Orleans, and that’s been a remarkably bad defense. I’m thinking that one will be a shootout, and there are really just three main pieces in that offense – Odell Beckham, Saquon Barkley and Shepard. At running back, it can be frustrating when your backups (Allen, Ekeler) put up big numbers, but I expect Drake will come around.
Question 14
Carson and Henry were both dropped in my league. Which one would be better going forward?
Kevin Toland (South Boston, MA)
Similar value, I think. They both have a chance to finish the season as top-20 backs. Both are in backfields with other players who potentially could finish with better numbers (Dion Lewis, Rashaad Penny). Carson will catch more passes than Henry. With Henry, it will help when they get their offensive line healthy.
Question 15
Is almost everything Pete Carroll says a lie? "Seahawks coach Pete Carroll said he's confident Doug Baldwin (knee) has a chance to play this week." Huh? I'm confident that before I die there's a chance I'll take a trip to the moon. Not likely, but a chance.
Dave (MOJO) Smith (Avon Park, FL)
Baldwin is practicing, and there’s apparently some chance he’ll be active this week. If you’ve got Baldwin, there’s a decent chance you might be able to plug him into your fantasy lineup in Week 5.
Question 16
Would you trade LeVeon Bell for Dalvin Cook? I also have Latavius Murray, and my cousin has James Conner? Basically, we'd have both backs on the respective teams.
ED HAYES (Lisle, IL)
Sounds good to me. If I were walking into a draft today, I would definitely select Cook before Bell.