ATLANTA (vs. Dallas)
Atlanta's offense has been pretty awesome at home, averaging 32 points and scoring 19 TDs in five games -- nearly 4 per week. But all of those games were against suspect defenses (Panthers, Saints, Bengals, Bucs and Giants, all 20th or worse in scoring defense). Dallas is ...
... a lot better (3rd in points allowed). Risky to underestimate the Falcons, but they're not a lock to score 3 TDs in this one. Falcons won 27-7 in this matchup last season, although this should be closer. Their defense isn't as good now, and Dallas didn't have Ezekiel Elliott available. ... The Falcons join the Bucs in having one of the two most pass-heavy offenses in the league: 2nd in passing, 30th in rushing. So it will be Matt Ryan leading the way. That's been the case for most of the season, with Ryan passing for at least 330 yards in four straight and six of seven. He also has multiple touchdown passes in six of eight. A lot of favorable matchups in there (the division's other teams plus the Bengals, Browns and Giants), though. That's not Dallas, which ranks 8th in pass defense, allowing just 249 yards per game, with 12 ...
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... TDs. That being said, Dallas hasn't faced many Ryan-caliber passers. Probably four (we're including Russell Wilson, while leaving out Newton, Manning, Mariota, Bortles and Alex Smith), and those guys did fine against this defense.
| Better passers versus Dallas | ||
|---|---|---|
| Player | Yards | TDs |
| Wilson, Sea. | 192 | 2 |
| Stafford, Det. | 307 | 2 |
| Watson, Hou. | 375 | 1 |
| Wentz, Phil. | 360 | 2 |
Not that it's an easy matchup for Ryan. Dallas has a strong pass rush (25 sacks), while Ryan has been sacked 24 times. But it's not like this defense is any easier to run on (and Atlanta has been pretty lousy running the ball most weeks), so Ryan will probably finish with above-average numbers -- albeit below what he's been putting up this season. Any offense the team can muster will likely come via his arm. Ryan threw for just 215 yards, but with 2 TDs, in last year's meeting. ... With the team leaning on the pass, there will be some viable receivers. Production should be down from what the Falcons have generally been putting up, but it's still how the offense will need to move the ball. Julio Jones has scored two weeks in a row, and has gone over 100 yards in four straight. He's averaging 115 yards per game, tops in the league. Mohamed Sanu and Calvin Ridley are both at 46-56 yards per game, though Ridley's the better option, outscoring Sanu 7-3. Overall numbers are scaled back, making these players less desirable choices, but they'll be out there pretty close to full-time. Dallas has allowed only 6 TDs to wide receivers, none since Week 6. Neither Jones nor Sanu reached 60 yards or scored against Dallas last year. ... Austin Hooper has been involved, at 46 yards per game. Compare that to last year, where he followed up a huge Week 1 by averaging just 27 yards over the next 15 games. As it happens, his 2nd-best game a year ago was against this defense (6 for 49 with a touchdown). Dallas just got shredded for 14 catches and 2 TDs by Zach Ertz, and on the season has allowed nearly as many touchdowns to tight ends (4) as wideouts (6). ... Dallas ranks 8th in run defense, allowing just 3.6 yards per carry, and Atlanta hasn't been had much success running it (30th). We made the mistake of underestimating them at Washington two weeks ago (they rushed for 154 yards in that one) but otherwise they've been under 75 yards in four straight and six of eight on the season. Tevin Coleman will be the main back, and he's been fine. He hasn't put up big rushing numbers (58 yards per game, setting aside ones Devonta Freeman played in), but add in his work as a receiver (26 yards per game) and he's a decent enough option. He's scored 5 TDs, including 4 in the last four games. Ito Smith in those same Freeman-less games is at 26 rushing and 16 receiving, with 4 TDs. They'll work against a defense that's allowed just 6 rushing scores, although running backs have caught 2 TDs, both in the last three weeks. It's a tough matchup, so Coleman appears a little lower than usual (and Smith is more of a desperation choice). Last year Freeman was knocked out of this matchup early with a concussion, helping Coleman rush for 83 yards and a touchdown. Unlikely he's that productive this time around. ... Matt Bryant (hamstring) got in one limited practice last Thursday before being ruled out on Friday, missing his third straight game. Will probably be the same approach this week: he'll test it out in practice, and if he can't go, Giorgio Tavecchio will kick again. Both guys have averaged a little over 7 kicking points, while the matchup is worse than that (Dallas is allowing under 6.5 per game). ... The Falcons Defense is a lesser unit, having lost a number of key starters to injury. It has just 17 sacks, and although its 8 interceptions are slightly above average, it counters that by having a league-worst 1 fumble recovery. Atlanta get Deion Jones back from a foot injury this week, which will help, but unlikely this suddenly becomes an above-average group. It does get a favorable matchup with Dak Prescott, however, especially in terms of sacks. He's taken 32 in nine contests, nearly 4 per game. Just 5 interceptions, but he's also lost 4 fumbles. For pass rush alone, there's some streaming potential.