Factoid

December 18, 2018

Big-game runners

Best running games tend to come late

If you’re looking for huge games from running backs, now is the time they are most likely to occur. There are a lot more gigantic running games in December than occur early in the season.

Derrick Henry, of course, is exhibit A, with back-to-back monster games. And we’ll see a few more such games from other running backs in the final two weeks.

Part of this (I think) can be attributed to offensive lines and running backs needing time to jell. Late in the year, everyone has a better idea of how plays are suppose to work, and how they need to be timed. Weather might also be a factor, with lesser conditions dictating more running.

And there are some teams nowadays that are simply out of it, with injuries piling up some franchises probably just mailing it in. You get a playoff contender against an also-ran, and it’s a recipe for big stats.

Whatever the reasons, 200-yard games tend to get a lot more popular late in the year. Since the move to 32 teams, there have been 9 200-yard games occurring in the first five weeks of the season. There have been 31 such games in the final five weeks -- over 3 times as many. (There have been 23 of those games in Weeks 6-12). And I’m looking at just the 2002-2017 seasons here, so no Derrick Henry against Jacksonville.

Here are those backs. Guys from the last five weeks of the season are in bold. The guys from the first five weeks have black dots.

RUNNING BACKS GOING OVER 200 YARDS
Year	Wk	Player	Opponent	Score	Att	Yds	Avg	TD
2007	9	Adrian Peterson, MIN	vs. SD	W 35-17	30	296	9.9	3
2003	2	• Jamal Lewis, BAL	vs. CLE	W 33-13	30	295	9.8	2
2009	15	Jerome Harrison, CLE	at KC	W 41-34	34	286	8.4	3
2009	17	Jamaal Charles, KC	at DEN	W 44-24	25	259	10.4	2
2011	7	DeMarco Murray, DAL	vs. STL	W 34-7	25	253	10.1	1
2012	9	Doug Martin, TB	at OAK	W 42-32	25	251	10.0	4
2003	17	LaDainian Tomlinson, SD	vs. OAK	W 21-14	31	243	7.8	2
2016	14	LeVeon Bell, PIT	at BUF	W 27-20	38	236	6.2	3
2015	11	Doug Martin, TB	at PHI	W 45-17	27	235	8.7	0
2006	17	Tiki Barber, NYG	at WAS	W 34-28	23	234	10.2	3
2012	3	• Jamaal Charles, KC	at NO	W 27-24	33	233	7.1	1
2010	1	• Arian Foster, HOU	vs. IND	W 34-24	33	231	7.0	3
2002	17	Clinton Portis, DEN	vs. ARI	W 37-7	24	228	9.5	2
2002	13	Ricky Williams, MIA	at BUF	L 21-38	27	228	8.4	2
2011	12	Beanie Wells, ARI	at STL	W 23-20	27	228	8.4	1
2009	8	Chris Johnson, TEN	vs. JAC	W 30-13	24	228	9.5	2
2012	16	Jamaal Charles, KC	vs. IND	L 13-20	22	226	10.3	1
2007	6	Adrian Peterson, MIN	at CHI	W 34-31	20	224	11.2	3
2013	12	Knowshon Moreno, DEN	at NE	L 31-34	37	224	6.1	1
2006	14	Willie Parker, PIT	vs. CLE	W 27-7	32	223	7.0	1
2008	1	• Michael Turner, ATL	vs. DET	W 34-21	22	220	10.0	2
2002	13	LaDainian Tomlinson, SD	vs. DEN	W 30-27	37	220	5.9	3
2005	15	Tiki Barber, NYG	vs. KC	W 27-17	29	220	7.6	2
2003	17	Ahman Green, GB	vs. DEN	W 31-3	20	218	10.9	2
2003	14	Clinton Portis, DEN	vs. KC	W 45-27	22	218	9.9	5
2002	4	• LaDainian Tomlinson, SD	vs. NE	W 21-14	27	217	8.0	2
2013	14	LeSean McCoy, PHI	vs. DET	W 34-20	29	217	7.5	2
2007	2	• Jamal Lewis, CLE	vs. CIN	W 51-45	27	216	8.0	1
2002	14	Ricky Williams, MIA	vs. CHI	W 27-9	31	216	7.0	2
2008	16	Derrick Ward, NYG	vs. CAR	W 34-28	15	215	14.3	0
2016	7	Jay Ajayi, MIA	vs. BUF	W 28-25	28	214	7.6	1
2006	10	Willie Parker, PIT	vs. NO	W 38-31	22	213	9.7	2
2012	15	Adrian Peterson, MIN	at STL	W 36-22	24	212	8.8	1
2009	17	Fred Jackson, BUF	vs. IND	W 30-7	33	212	6.4	0
2006	11	Frank Gore, SF	vs. SEA	W 20-14	24	212	8.8	0
2013	13	Adrian Peterson, MIN	vs. CHI	W 23-20	35	211	6.0	0
2005	11	Larry Johnson, KC	at HOU	W 45-17	36	211	5.9	2
2012	13	Adrian Peterson, MIN	at GB	L 14-23	21	210	10.0	1
2012	17	DeAngelo Williams, CAR	at NO	W 44-38	21	210	10.0	2
2009	6	Thomas Jones, NYJ	vs. BUF	L 13-16	22	210	9.5	1
2015	11	Thomas Rawls, SEA	vs. SF	W 29-13	30	209	7.0	1
2008	17	Michael Turner, ATL	vs. STL	W 31-27	25	208	8.3	1
2009	2	• Frank Gore, SF	vs. SEA	W 23-10	16	207	12.9	2
2016	16	Jay Ajayi, MIA	at BUF	W 34-31	32	206	6.4	1
2009	16	Jonathan Stewart, CAR	at NYG	W 41-9	28	206	7.4	1
2005	8	Tiki Barber, NYG	vs. WAS	W 36-0	24	206	8.6	1
2011	4	• Matt Forte, CHI	vs. CAR	W 34-29	25	205	8.2	1
2003	16	Jamal Lewis, BAL	at CLE	W 35-0	22	205	9.3	2
2011	13	Ray Rice, BAL	at CLE	W 24-10	29	204	7.0	1
2004	11	Edgerrin James, IND	at CHI	W 41-10	23	204	8.9	1
2016	6	Jay Ajayi, MIA	vs. PIT	W 30-15	25	204	8.2	2
2014	11	LeVeon Bell, PIT	at TEN	W 27-24	33	204	6.2	1
2011	15	Reggie Bush, MIA	at BUF	W 30-23	25	203	8.1	1
2002	17	Tiki Barber, NYG	vs. PHI	W 10-7	32	203	6.3	0
2005	17	Tiki Barber, NYG	at OAK	W 30-21	28	203	7.3	1
2015	10	Adrian Peterson, MIN	at OAK	W 30-14	26	203	7.8	1
2004	12	Rudi Johnson, CIN	vs. CLE	W 58-48	26	202	7.8	2
2005	17	Larry Johnson, KC	vs. CIN	W 37-3	26	201	7.7	3
2014	11	Jonas Gray, NE	at IND	W 42-20	37	201	5.4	4
2006	12	Shaun Alexander, SEA	vs. GB	W 34-24	40	201	5.0	0
2012	5	• Ahmad Bradshaw, NYG	vs. CLE	W 41-27	30	200	6.7	1
2012	17	Alfred Morris, WAS	vs. DAL	W 28-18	33	200	6.1	3
2003	7	LaDainian Tomlinson, SD	at CLE	W 26-20	26	200	7.7	1

If you want to lower the bar and look at games with 160-plus yards (also a very productive game), it still tilts strongly in favor of late year.

Since 2002 there have been 95 such games in the final five weeks of the season. There have been only 49 of those games in the first five weeks – about half as many.

NUMBER OF 160-YARD RUSHERS
Week	No
Week 1	9
Week 2	12
Week 3	10
Week 4	10
Week 5	8
Week 6	11
Week 7	17
Week 8	13
Week 9	14
Week 10	12
Week 11	15
Week 12	16
Week 13	17
Week 14	20
Week 15	18
Week 16	10
Week 17	30

If we’re looking for a game with 160-plus yards this week, I would be thinking either Nick Chubb or Ezekiel Elliott. Both backs are really good, and they’re both at home against really bad run defenses.

—Ian Allan

Nick Chubb Ezekiel Elliott

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