You’re putting together your fantasy roster for the postseason. Do you load up on players from Kansas City and New Orleans? Or is it more likely that we’ll see a pair of more lightly regarded teams in the Super Bowl?

On these kind of things, I always like to look at the historical numbers. Not that the answer is hidden there, but it gives us a better idea of what kind of odds we’re looking at.

In the last five years, only one No. 1 seed failed to make it to the Super Bowl (the 2016 Dallas Cowboys, slayed by Green Bay in the divisional round when Aaron Rodgers and Jared Cook connected on that unlikely long completion in the dying seconds to set up a game-winning field goal. Other than that, 9 of the last 10 No. 1 seeds have advanced to the Super Bowl.

So if recent form is a guide, we’ll be seeing New Orleans and Kansas City playing in Super Bowl LIII.

But if we go back a little further, the record gets a lot spottier. In the previous 11 seasons only 10 of the 22 teams playing in the Super Bowl were No. 1 seeds.

The NFL went to the 32-team format in 2002. In the 16 seasons since that switch, 19 of the 32 Super Bowl combatants have been No. 1 seeds. Just over half.

Of the last 16 winners, seven have been No. 1 seeds – just under half.

For me, I don’t consider either one of these franchises to be of the lock variety. I don’t think they’re as strong as what we typically see as a No. 1 seed. So if I had to guess, I would expect we’ll see at least one team in the Super Bowl that isn’t a No. 1 seed.

Unlikely, however, that both No. 1 seeds fall before Atlanta. Only three teams in the last 16 years has there been a Super Bowl with neither No. 1 seed (2008, 2010, 2012).

No. 1 seeds in the 32-team era
2018Kansas City12-4???
2018New Orleans Saints13-3???
2017New England Patriots13-3lost in Super Bowl
2017Philadelphia Eagles13-3won Super Bowl
2016Dallas Cowboys13-3lost in divisional round
2016New England Patriots14-2won Super Bowl
2015Carolina Panthers15-1lost in Super Bowl
2015Denver Broncos12-4won Super Bowl
2014Seattle Seahawks12-4lost in Super Bowl
2014New England Patriots12-4won Super Bowl
2013Denver Broncos13-3lost in Super Bowl
2013Seattle Seahawks13-3won Super Bowl
2012Atlanta Falcons13-3lost in conference championship
2012Denver Broncos13-3lost in divisional round
2011Green Bay Packers15-1lost in divisional round
2011New England Patriots13-3lost in Super Bowl
2010New England Patriots14-2lost in divisional round
2010Atlanta Falcons13-3lost in divisional round
2009Indianapolis Colts14-2lost in Super Bowl
2009New Orleans Saints13-3won Super Bowl
2008Tennessee Titans13-3lost in divisional round
2008New York Giants12-4lost in divisional round
2007Dallas Cowboys13-3lost in divisional round
2007New England Patriots16-0lost in Super Bowl
2006San Diego Chargers14-2lost in divisional round
2006Chicago Bears13-3lost in Super Bowl
2005Indianapolis Colts14-2lost in divisional round
2005Seattle Seahawks13-3lost in Super Bowl
2004Pittsburgh Steelers15-1lost in Super Bowl
2004Philadelphia Eagles13-3lost in Super Bowl
2003Philadelphia Eagles12-4lost in conference championship
2003New England Patriots14-2won Super Bowl
2002Philadelphia Eagles12-4lost in conference championship
2002Oakland Raiders11-5lost in Super Bowl

—Ian Allan