Patrick Mahomes finished the season with 50 touchdown passes. History tells us, however, that throwing a bunch of touchdown passes doesn’t necessarily mean a Super Bowl title is coming.

In league history, 12 other quarterbacks have finished seasons with 40-plus touchdown passes. Only one of those players (Kurt Warner in 1999) cap his season with a Super Bowl championship.

Three of the four others with at least 48 touchdown passes, at least made it to the championship game. None of the others did (and two didn’t even make the playoffs).

2013Peyton Manning, Den.55lost in Super Bowl
2007Tom Brady, N.E.50lost in Super Bowl
2018Patrick Mahomes, K.C.50???
2004Peyton Manning, Ind.49lost in divisional round
1984Dan Marino, Mia.48lost in Super Bowl
2011Drew Brees, N.O.46lost in divisional round
2011Aaron Rodgers, G.B.45lost in divisional round
1986Dan Marino, Mia.44didn’t make playoffs
2012Drew Brees, N.O.43didn’t make playoffs
1999• Kurt Warner, St.L.41won Super Bowl
2011Matthew Stafford, Det.41lost in first round
2014Andrew Luck, Ind.40lost in AFC Championship
2016Aaron Rodgers, G.B.40lost in NFC Championship

—Ian Allan