Let me dip back into John Ross, who either is or isn’t being shopped around by the Bengals. Ross is really fast, but he’s been really unproductive in his first two seasons.
Since being selected with a top-10 pick (just before Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson – ugh) Ross missed most of his rookie season, then wasn’t much of a factor in his second year. Some numbers went by yesterday, and they were even worse than I expected.
Ross caught only 21 of the 58 passes thrown his way last year. That’s 36 percent – worst among all wide receivers with at least 50 targets.
Ross also averaged only 10 yards per catch, so that works out to only 3.6 yards per pass play. Among wide receivers who’ve seen at least 50 targets in the last 10 years (and there have been 871 such wide receivers) only one has been less effective per play. That was Eddie Royal in 2011, and he was working with scatter-armed Tim Tebow that year.
In the last 10 years, only 20 other wide receivers have averaged under 5 yards per play. That’s out of those 871 with 50-plus targets.
| AVERAGING UNDER 5 YARDS PER TARGET (last 10 years) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Tgt | Rec | Yards | Avg | TD | Next Year |
| 2011 | Eddie Royal, Den. | 50 | 19 | 155 | 3.1 | 1 | 23-234-1 |
| 2018 | John Ross, Cin. | 58 | 21 | 210 | 3.6 | 7 | ?-?-? |
| 2012 | Early Doucet, Ariz. | 53 | 28 | 207 | 3.9 | 0 | 0-0-0 |
| 2013 | Davone Bess, Cle. | 86 | 42 | 362 | 4.2 | 2 | 0-0-0 |
| 2017 | • Zay Jones, Buff. | 74 | 27 | 316 | 4.3 | 2 | 56-652-7 |
| 2009 | • Eddie Royal, Den. | 79 | 37 | 345 | 4.4 | 0 | 59-627-3 |
| 2011 | Mike Thomas, Jac. | 92 | 44 | 415 | 4.5 | 1 | 18-108-1 |
| 2010 | • Laurent Robinson, St.L. | 75 | 34 | 344 | 4.6 | 2 | 54-858-11 |
| 2011 | Andre Caldwell, Cin. | 68 | 37 | 317 | 4.7 | 3 | 1-18-0 |
| 2010 | Bernard Berrian, Min. | 54 | 28 | 252 | 4.7 | 0 | 7-91-0 |
| 2013 | Greg Little, Cle. | 99 | 41 | 465 | 4.7 | 2 | 6-69-0 |
| 2015 | Eddie Royal, Chi. | 50 | 37 | 238 | 4.8 | 1 | 33-369-2 |
| 2009 | Bryant Johnson, Det. | 87 | 35 | 417 | 4.8 | 3 | 18-210-0 |
| 2016 | Tavon Austin, LAR | 106 | 58 | 509 | 4.8 | 3 | 13-47-1 |
| 2013 | Darrius Heyward-Bey, Ind. | 64 | 29 | 309 | 4.8 | 1 | 3-33-0 |
| 2018 | Jermaine Kearse, NYJ | 76 | 37 | 371 | 4.9 | 1 | ?-?-? |
| 2011 | Jonathan Baldwin, K.C. | 52 | 21 | 254 | 4.9 | 1 | 20-325-1 |
| 2010 | • Early Doucet, Ariz. | 59 | 26 | 291 | 4.9 | 1 | 54-689-5 |
| 2009 | Bobby Wade, K.C. | 74 | 36 | 367 | 5.0 | 2 | 0-0-0 |
| 2009 | Chansi Stuckey, NYJ-Cle | 64 | 30 | 318 | 5.0 | 2 | 40-346-1 |
| 2017 | • Cole Beasley, Dall. | 63 | 36 | 314 | 5.0 | 4 | 65-672-3 |
If Ross bounces back to make much of an impact, he’ll be beating the odds. A handful of these other receivers, however, did cobble together some nominal success. Laurent Robinson, most famously, was the most surprising wide receiver of the 2011 season, with 858 yards and 11 TDs. Four other wide receivers at least went over 600 yards, including Zay Jones and Cole Beasley last year (the receivers who had a detectable pulse the next year, I’ve tagged with black dots).
I’m not giving up on Ross yet. With his speed, he could still develop into a dangerous deep threat. But he looks like a project at best. If I’m walking into a draft today, I wouldn’t expect he would be selected.
—Ian Allan