The 49ers are bringing in Tevin Coleman, and I’ll sign off on that signing. He looks like a great fit for that offense.
Coleman played for Kyle Shanahan in Atlanta, of course, so he knows the system. In Shanahan’s final season with the Falcons, Coleman ran for 520 yards, averaging 4.4 yards per carry, as the second half of a one-two punch with Devonta Freeman.
Coleman signed a two-year deal worth $10 million. That sounds about right. Mark Ingram signed for $15 million for three years, Adrian Peterson is at $8 million for two, and Latavius Murray is at $14.4 for four.
In my opinion, all of those backs are contributors, but none are the types of backs you want to have on the field down after down.
With Coleman, I think Shanahan has a stable of backs he can work with. Matt Breida averaged 5.3 yards per carry last year. He’s probably their best runner, but he’s on the small side (5-11, 190) to be used in a heavy-duty way. I would think Breida and Coleman will be the two leading rushers on this team. The 49ers also signed Jerick McKinnon to a big contract a year ago, but I don’t think he runs as well as the other two.
Over the past three years, 61 running backs have run the ball at least 200 times. Only three have averaged more yards per carry than Breida, but only two have averaged fewer yards per attempt than McKinnon (who didn’t get any regular-season carries last year after injuring his knee in August).
| RUSHING, 2016-2018 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Att | Yards | Avg | TD |
| Aaron Jones | 214 | 1176 | 5.5 | 12 |
| Alvin Kamara | 314 | 1611 | 5.1 | 22 |
| Saquon Barkley | 261 | 1307 | 5.0 | 11 |
| Matt Breida | 258 | 1279 | 5.0 | 5 |
| Mark Ingram | 573 | 2812 | 4.9 | 24 |
| Kareem Hunt | 453 | 2151 | 4.7 | 15 |
| Kenyan Drake | 286 | 1358 | 4.7 | 9 |
| Bilal Powell | 389 | 1837 | 4.7 | 8 |
| Dalvin Cook | 207 | 969 | 4.7 | 4 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 868 | 4048 | 4.7 | 28 |
| Devonta Freeman | 437 | 2012 | 4.6 | 18 |
| Chris Carson | 296 | 1359 | 4.6 | 9 |
| Derrick Henry | 501 | 2293 | 4.6 | 22 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 336 | 1533 | 4.6 | 9 |
| Isaiah Crowell | 547 | 2490 | 4.6 | 15 |
| Mike Gillislee | 221 | 1003 | 4.5 | 13 |
| Jay Ajayi | 514 | 2329 | 4.5 | 12 |
| James Conner | 247 | 1117 | 4.5 | 12 |
| Sony Michel | 209 | 931 | 4.5 | 6 |
| Tevin Coleman | 441 | 1948 | 4.4 | 17 |
| Spencer Ware | 265 | 1167 | 4.4 | 5 |
| LeVeon Bell | 582 | 2559 | 4.4 | 16 |
| Marlon Mack | 288 | 1266 | 4.4 | 12 |
| C.J. Anderson | 422 | 1847 | 4.4 | 9 |
| Jordan Howard | 778 | 3370 | 4.3 | 24 |
| Joe Mixon | 415 | 1794 | 4.3 | 12 |
| Orleans Darkwa | 201 | 862 | 4.3 | 7 |
| LeSean McCoy | 682 | 2919 | 4.3 | 22 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 297 | 1267 | 4.3 | 10 |
| Dion Lewis | 399 | 1696 | 4.3 | 7 |
| Todd Gurley | 813 | 3441 | 4.2 | 36 |
| Alex Collins | 357 | 1509 | 4.2 | 14 |
| Melvin Gordon | 713 | 2987 | 4.2 | 28 |
| Alfred Morris | 295 | 1218 | 4.1 | 5 |
| Lamar Miller | 716 | 2934 | 4.1 | 13 |
| DeMarco Murray | 477 | 1946 | 4.1 | 15 |
| Wendell Smallwood | 211 | 850 | 4.0 | 5 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 226 | 910 | 4.0 | 4 |
| Latavius Murray | 551 | 2208 | 4.0 | 26 |
| T.J. Yeldon | 283 | 1132 | 4.0 | 4 |
| Giovani Bernard | 252 | 1006 | 4.0 | 7 |
| Frank Gore | 680 | 2708 | 4.0 | 7 |
| Carlos Hyde | 629 | 2497 | 4.0 | 19 |
| Terrance West | 232 | 912 | 3.9 | 7 |
| David Johnson | 562 | 2202 | 3.9 | 23 |
| Robert Kelley | 234 | 906 | 3.9 | 9 |
| Peyton Barber | 397 | 1517 | 3.8 | 9 |
| Devontae Booker | 287 | 1094 | 3.8 | 6 |
| Theo Riddick | 216 | 814 | 3.8 | 4 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 626 | 2345 | 3.7 | 25 |
| Jeremy Hill | 263 | 980 | 3.7 | 9 |
| Jamaal Williams | 274 | 1020 | 3.7 | 7 |
| Matt Forte | 321 | 1194 | 3.7 | 9 |
| Adrian Peterson | 444 | 1643 | 3.7 | 9 |
| Leonard Fournette | 401 | 1479 | 3.7 | 14 |
| Alfred Blue | 321 | 1181 | 3.7 | 4 |
| Javorius Allen | 203 | 735 | 3.6 | 7 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 422 | 1521 | 3.6 | 15 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 309 | 1109 | 3.6 | 5 |
| Chris Ivory | 344 | 1206 | 3.5 | 5 |
| Doug Martin | 454 | 1550 | 3.4 | 10 |
In Shanahan’s system, of course, receiving production is important. He likes to involve the running backs heavily as a pass catchers.
In that regard, Coleman is better than McKinnon and Breida. I don’t think Coleman has remarkable hands, but he understands that offense and has been effective in it.
Over the last three years, Coleman averages 11.1 yards per catch. That’s 2nd-best in the league among running backs. He’s caught 11 touchdowns, tying for 2nd-most among running backs.
Breida, I think, is the worst pass catcher of these three. McKinnon has the highest catch rate of the three, but too many of his catches haven’t resulted in much production. He also hasn’t actually played in Shanahan’s offense yet. (And he’s coming off a knee surgery).
In the last three years, 63 running backs have been targeted at least 60 times in the passing games. Here’s how they sort out. I’m ranking them by average yards per target.
(Note that in the rushing chart, the touchdown totals included only rushing touchdowns. In this one, the touchdowns include only TDs on pass plays.)
| RUNNINB BACKS, RECEIVING (2016-18) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Tgt | Rec | Pct | Yards | TD | Avg/Tgt |
| Spencer Ware | 65 | 53 | 82% | 671 | 2 | 10.3 |
| Kareem Hunt | 98 | 79 | 81% | 833 | 10 | 8.5 |
| Tevin Coleman | 123 | 90 | 73% | 996 | 11 | 8.1 |
| Austin Ekeler | 88 | 66 | 75% | 683 | 6 | 7.8 |
| Todd Gurley | 226 | 166 | 73% | 1,695 | 10 | 7.5 |
| Alvin Kamara | 205 | 162 | 79% | 1,535 | 9 | 7.5 |
| Chris Ivory | 77 | 54 | 70% | 566 | 1 | 7.4 |
| Duke Johnson | 229 | 174 | 76% | 1,636 | 6 | 7.1 |
| Rex Burkhead | 76 | 61 | 80% | 530 | 4 | 7.0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 172 | 135 | 78% | 1,199 | 6 | 7.0 |
| James Conner | 72 | 55 | 76% | 497 | 1 | 6.9 |
| Kyle Juszczyk | 132 | 100 | 76% | 905 | 2 | 6.9 |
| David Johnson | 205 | 136 | 66% | 1,392 | 7 | 6.8 |
| Jalen Richard | 156 | 124 | 79% | 1,057 | 3 | 6.8 |
| Devonta Freeman | 119 | 95 | 80% | 802 | 3 | 6.7 |
| Melvin Gordon | 206 | 149 | 72% | 1,385 | 10 | 6.7 |
| Damien Williams | 84 | 66 | 79% | 564 | 6 | 6.7 |
| Tarik Cohen | 162 | 124 | 77% | 1,078 | 6 | 6.7 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 72 | 60 | 83% | 476 | 0 | 6.6 |
| Chris Thompson | 171 | 129 | 75% | 1,127 | 7 | 6.6 |
| Matt Breida | 67 | 48 | 72% | 441 | 3 | 6.6 |
| Leonard Fournette | 74 | 58 | 78% | 487 | 2 | 6.6 |
| Joe Mixon | 89 | 73 | 82% | 583 | 1 | 6.6 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 237 | 187 | 79% | 1,518 | 11 | 6.4 |
| Frank Gore | 101 | 79 | 78% | 646 | 6 | 6.4 |
| LeVeon Bell | 200 | 160 | 80% | 1,271 | 4 | 6.4 |
| Matt Forte | 88 | 67 | 76% | 556 | 2 | 6.3 |
| Jamaal Williams | 75 | 52 | 69% | 472 | 2 | 6.3 |
| Darren Sproles | 106 | 74 | 70% | 660 | 4 | 6.2 |
| James White | 281 | 203 | 72% | 1,731 | 15 | 6.2 |
| Devontae Booker | 134 | 99 | 74% | 815 | 1 | 6.1 |
| Dalvin Cook | 65 | 51 | 78% | 395 | 2 | 6.1 |
| Saquon Barkley | 121 | 91 | 75% | 721 | 4 | 6.0 |
| Ty Montgomery | 127 | 92 | 72% | 756 | 1 | 6.0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 159 | 117 | 74% | 943 | 3 | 5.9 |
| Latavius Murray | 86 | 70 | 81% | 508 | 0 | 5.9 |
| Wendell Smallwood | 66 | 47 | 71% | 388 | 2 | 5.9 |
| Andre Ellington | 78 | 51 | 65% | 454 | 0 | 5.8 |
| Kenyan Drake | 131 | 94 | 72% | 762 | 6 | 5.8 |
| Mark Ingram | 156 | 125 | 80% | 905 | 5 | 5.8 |
| LeSean McCoy | 180 | 143 | 79% | 1,042 | 3 | 5.8 |
| Lamar Miller | 119 | 92 | 77% | 678 | 5 | 5.7 |
| Mike Davis | 65 | 52 | 80% | 370 | 1 | 5.7 |
| Theo Riddick | 212 | 167 | 79% | 1,199 | 7 | 5.7 |
| DeMarco Murray | 114 | 92 | 81% | 643 | 4 | 5.6 |
| Dion Lewis | 126 | 108 | 86% | 708 | 4 | 5.6 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 121 | 94 | 78% | 676 | 4 | 5.6 |
| Charles Sims | 79 | 59 | 75% | 439 | 2 | 5.6 |
| Alex Collins | 68 | 49 | 72% | 376 | 1 | 5.5 |
| Travaris Cadet | 74 | 57 | 77% | 405 | 4 | 5.5 |
| T.J. Yeldon | 187 | 135 | 72% | 1,023 | 5 | 5.5 |
| C.J. Anderson | 73 | 49 | 67% | 393 | 3 | 5.4 |
| Bilal Powell | 125 | 92 | 74% | 668 | 3 | 5.3 |
| Isaiah Crowell | 123 | 89 | 72% | 653 | 0 | 5.3 |
| Charcandrick West | 71 | 57 | 80% | 375 | 5 | 5.3 |
| Jordan Howard | 108 | 72 | 67% | 568 | 1 | 5.3 |
| Nyheim Hines | 81 | 63 | 78% | 425 | 2 | 5.2 |
| Shane Vereen | 72 | 55 | 76% | 347 | 0 | 4.8 |
| DeAndre Washington | 69 | 52 | 75% | 321 | 1 | 4.7 |
| Jay Ajayi | 75 | 56 | 75% | 329 | 1 | 4.4 |
| Javorius Allen | 107 | 84 | 79% | 461 | 4 | 4.3 |
| Wayne Gallman | 70 | 48 | 69% | 282 | 1 | 4.0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 137 | 96 | 70% | 546 | 3 | 4.0 |
For me, I’m thinking this is a committee backfield. For rushing, I would rank them Breida-Coleman-McKinnon. For receiving, I’d go with Coleman-McKinnon-Breida.
Injuries no doubt will play a role. No way will all three of these backs play all 16 games. And maybe some other running back plays his way into the mix. If I were drafting them today, I think I’d take Breida just a little earlier than Coleman, with McKinnon probably not fitting onto a fantasy roster.
—Ian Allan
16 Reader Comments:
Paul Desimone
Dennis Salisbury
Ian Allan
Drew Paterson
Andy Richardson
Whatever they say, McKinnon getting cut has to be a possibility.
Richard Jackson
Paul Desimone
With McKinnon, he's a never-done-it guy. Brieda, I like his energy, I like his toughness. But he's proven to be a soft-tissue risk. Even if you discount salaries (and McKinnon's the only one with an exorbitant contract for his accomplishments), the run game has such choreography, and timing is so critical, you just can't run a bunch of guys out there and expect good results at the NFL level.
I'm not the kind of guy to heartlessly wish anybody out of a job. But I don't like the McKinnon fit.
Ian Allan
Drew Paterson
Bob McKinlay
Paul Desimone
Yes on Mostert. HE looked really good - explosive - before the injury. And the plus thing (if there's ever really a "plus" about injuries) is that it was a freakish injury - a fractured forearm. Don't see that as being a candidate for a repeat.
Personally, I liked what I saw of Mostert better than Breida. And I saw all their games.
Vin Kmetz
Andy Richardson
Ian Allan
Paul Desimone
Andy Richardson