It’s not supposed to be a good year for running backs in the draft. There is no Saquon Barkley or Ezekiel Elliott type guy that will be selected in the top 5. I don’t think any will be selected in the top 20. But that doesn’t mean some viable fantasy options won’t crawl out of the woodwork.
When looking at a draft, the tendency is to focus on the top guys. The first round is the most important. If more than usual will be selected before the end of the second, then bust out the “deep draft” label. But history shows us – over and over and over – that some of the players nobody talks about will make an impact.
In this century (19 seasons) 28 running backs selected after the first two rounds have put up top-30 fantasy numbers in their first season, and we’ve seen more of those kind of seasons recently. Just one (undrafted Phillip Lindsay) last year, but at least two in each of the previous six seasons.
For me, there’s a difference between the second and third rounds. When a team selects a running back in the second, I think the team’s mindset is usually that it will make an effort to get said player on the field. He’s being drafted with the idea he’s going to come in and play a role. With third-round guys, there just being given the opportunity to compete. I think there’s less of an assumption they’ll necessarily play at all.
We’ve seen big (top-10) numbers from three running backs selected in the third round in recent years, but I don’t think any of them were guys that were locked into roles. David Johnson began for the Cardinals in a supporting role and quickly moved up as he kept busting off long gains. Alvin Kamara at the start of his rookie season was kind of their third running back (behind Adrian Peterson and Mark Ingram). And with Kareem Hunt, I think they were planning on him being their No. 2, but then Spencer Ware tore his ACL in a preseason game.
While there’s been some huge third-round running backs in recent years, the hit rate hasn’t been huge for that round.
Once you get to the fourth round and beyond, then you’re definitely looking at off-the-radar players. Some of these guys don’t even make the 53-man roster. Teams will try to stash some of these players on practice squads and whatnot.
Nonetheless, some of these lightly regarded running backs will make an impact.
Since 2000, nine running backs selected in third round have finished with top-30 numbers in their first season. Four have put up top-10 numbers.
For rounds fourth and on (including undrafted players) 19 have put up top-30 numbers in their first year. Six have finished with top-15 numbers in their first year.
The numbers appear below. For the points, those are fantasy points using standard scoring. The rank (Rk) shows where they placed among running backs that year.
| LESS-HERALDED ROOKIE RUNNING BACKS WITH TOP-30 NUMBERS | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rd | Year | Player | Run | Rec | Tot | TD | Points | Rk |
| 6 | 2000 | Mike Anderson, Den. | 1,500 | 169 | 1,669 | 15 | 258.9 | 4 |
| 3 | 2000 | Travis Prentice, Clev. | 512 | 191 | 703 | 8 | 118.3 | 28 |
| FA | 2001 | Dominic Rhodes, Ind. | 1,104 | 224 | 1,328 | 10 | 192.8 | 11 |
| 3 | 2001 | Kevan Barlow, S.F. | 512 | 247 | 759 | 5 | 105.9 | 30 |
| 4 | 2003 | Domanick Davis, Hou. | 1,031 | 351 | 1,382 | 8 | 186.2 | 15 |
| FA | 2005 | Samkon Gado, G.B. | 582 | 77 | 659 | 7 | 107.9 | 30 |
| FA | 2006 | Mike Bell, Den. | 677 | 158 | 835 | 8 | 131.5 | 30 |
| 3 | 2008 | Kevin Smith, Det. | 976 | 286 | 1,262 | 8 | 174.2 | 18 |
| 3 | 2008 | Steve Slaton, Hou. | 1,282 | 377 | 1,659 | 10 | 225.9 | 6 |
| FA | 2010 | LeGarrette Blount, T.B. | 1,007 | 14 | 1,021 | 6 | 138.1 | 24 |
| 3 | 2011 | DeMarco Murray, Dall. | 897 | 183 | 1,080 | 2 | 120.0 | 30 |
| 6 | 2012 | Alfred Morris, Wash. | 1,613 | 77 | 1,690 | 13 | 247.0 | 5 |
| 5 | 2012 | Vick Ballard, Ind. | 814 | 152 | 966 | 3 | 114.6 | 27 |
| 5 | 2013 | Zac Stacy, St.L. | 973 | 141 | 1,114 | 8 | 159.4 | 18 |
| 6 | 2013 | Andre Ellington, Ariz. | 652 | 371 | 1,023 | 4 | 126.3 | 25 |
| 4 | 2014 | Andre Williams, NYG | 721 | 130 | 851 | 7 | 127.1 | 21 |
| FA | 2014 | Isaiah Crowell, Clev. | 607 | 87 | 694 | 8 | 117.4 | 28 |
| 3 | 2014 | Tre Mason, St.L. | 765 | 148 | 913 | 5 | 121.3 | 25 |
| 4 | 2015 | Jeremy Langford, Chi. | 537 | 279 | 816 | 7 | 125.6 | 24 |
| FA | 2015 | Thomas Rawls, Sea. | 830 | 76 | 906 | 5 | 120.6 | 26 |
| 3 | 2015 | David Johnson, Ariz. | 581 | 457 | 1,038 | 13 | 181.8 | 7 |
| 5 | 2016 | Jordan Howard, Chi. | 1,313 | 298 | 1,611 | 7 | 203.1 | 9 |
| FA | 2016 | Robert Kelley, Wash. | 704 | 82 | 786 | 7 | 120.6 | 26 |
| 4 | 2016 | Devontae Booker, Den. | 612 | 265 | 877 | 5 | 117.7 | 27 |
| 4 | 2017 | Jamaal Williams, G.B. | 556 | 262 | 818 | 6 | 117.8 | 29 |
| 3 | 2017 | Alvin Kamara, N.O. | 728 | 826 | 1,554 | 14 | 241.4 | 4 |
| 3 | 2017 | Kareem Hunt, K.C. | 1,327 | 455 | 1,782 | 11 | 244.2 | 3 |
| FA | 2018 | Phillip Lindsay, Den. | 1,037 | 241 | 1,278 | 10 | 187.8 | 13 |
—Ian Allan