Before starting my deep dive on the Ravens, my expectation was that it was probably best to stay away from this team’s passing game entirely. John Brown, I knew from when I was working on the Bills, caught only 10 of 33 passes for 128 yards in the eight games Lamar Jackson started. But things didn’t play out quite like I expected.
Baltimore’s tight ends, I was surprised to see, actually played better after the team switched quarterbacks. Joe Flacco is well known for liking to throw short balls in the middle of the field. Dennis Pitta had a security-blanket role in that offense, catching 86 passes in 2016. But the tight ends last year actually averaged more yards with Jackson at quarterback.
As poorly as Jackson played at times last year, he completed 71 percent of his passes when throwing to tight ends. Flacco completed only 64 percent. And more of Jackson’s throws went downfield and did damage. Mark Andrews (pictured) caught a 68-yard touchdown at Los Angeles and a 74-yard ball against the Raiders, but he also averaged 14 yards per catch on his other balls from Jackson. (He averaged only 9.3 yards per catch with Flacco.)
The tight ends averaged more catches with Flacco. They also caught 3 TDs (in nine games) from Flacco. In eight games (including the playoffs) with Jackson, they caught 2 TDs. But as a group, they averaged 68 yards when the rookie was at quarterback – 5 more than the first nine games.
If we take those splits and project them out over 16 games, Baltimore would have finished with 1,092 tight end yards had Jackson started for the entire season (and played at the same level). That’s despite them averaging a feeble 165 passing yards per game after the quarterback switch.
If you’re using standard scoring, Baltimore’s tight ends last year were more productive with Jackson at quarterback. In PPR, they were more effective with Flacco. But in both systems, they were much better than I expected – not down on the John Brown level, with Jackson seemingly unable to hit the side of a barn with a lot of his throws.
Only six teams last year finished with more tight end yads than Baltimore last year, and that looks like it was going to be the same whether Jackson or Flacco was at quarterback.
| TEAM TIGHT END TOTALS (yards) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | No | Yards | Avg | Long | TD |
| Philadelphia | 155 | 1,571 | 10.1 | 34 | 12 |
| Kansas City | 115 | 1,500 | 13.0 | 43 | 13 |
| San Francisco | 95 | 1,481 | 15.6 | 85 | 7 |
| Indianapolis | 108 | 1,216 | 11.3 | 53 | 21 |
| Pittsburgh | 86 | 1,119 | 13.0 | 75 | 6 |
| Oakland | 91 | 1,111 | 12.2 | 45 | 10 |
| Jackson (16 G proj.) | 74 | 1,092 | 14.8 | 74 | 4 |
| Flacco (16 G proj.) | 94 | 1,003 | 10.6 | 30 | 5.3 |
| Washington | 84 | 966 | 11.5 | 53 | 5 |
| NY Giants | 79 | 935 | 11.8 | 54 | 5 |
| Green Bay | 81 | 922 | 11.4 | 54 | 4 |
| Tampa Bay | 73 | 911 | 12.5 | 75 | 11 |
| Cleveland | 75 | 853 | 11.4 | 66 | 8 |
| Tennessee | 67 | 802 | 12.0 | 61 | 7 |
| Atlanta | 85 | 799 | 9.4 | 36 | 5 |
| New England | 54 | 761 | 14.1 | 42 | 3 |
| Minnesota | 74 | 747 | 10.1 | 44 | 4 |
| Houston | 61 | 745 | 12.2 | 47 | 4 |
| New Orleans | 66 | 739 | 11.2 | 32 | 4 |
| NY Jets | 67 | 735 | 11.0 | 32 | 5 |
| Dallas | 68 | 710 | 10.4 | 43 | 4 |
| Cincinnati | 67 | 708 | 10.6 | 32 | 5 |
| Carolina | 65 | 676 | 10.4 | 50 | 7 |
| Chicago | 64 | 668 | 10.4 | 47 | 7 |
| Denver | 68 | 649 | 9.5 | 44 | 3 |
| LA Rams | 58 | 617 | 10.6 | 40 | 5 |
| Seattle | 51 | 600 | 11.8 | 66 | 8 |
| LA Chargers | 48 | 567 | 11.8 | 27 | 3 |
| Jacksonville | 59 | 530 | 9.0 | 24 | 1 |
| Buffalo | 56 | 525 | 9.4 | 26 | 1 |
| Arizona | 46 | 475 | 10.3 | 40 | 1 |
| Detroit | 45 | 461 | 10.2 | 39 | 4 |
| Miami | 39 | 386 | 9.9 | 27 | 2 |
There are other issues here that need to be worked out. The Ravens used four tight ends last year. Andrews averaged 35 receiving yards per game last year, but three other tight ends all averaged 11-14, with a combined 2 TDs. If they use the same kind of committee mish-mash, that might prevent Andrews from posting top-20 numbers. But I’ve got a feeling Andrews could be pretty good.
Maxx Williams is a free agent, and I doubt he’ll be back. I think they want to use three tight ends, and I believe he’s the odd man out. Inside the 10 last year, by the way, Williams caught 4 passes – more than the other three combined. Looks like a decent player who could be ready to play better than he has. If I were running an NFL team, he’s a guy I’d be looking into signing as a depth guy who might potentially outperform the value of his contract – could be ready to start performing more like what the Ravens were hoping for when they selected him in the second round in 2015.
Nick Boyle helps power the team’s running game. John Harbaugh called him the “best blocking tight end in the league” when the team re-signed him to a three-year deal worth $18 million, with $10 million guaranteed. He’ll be out there on pretty much every play, but he’ll never develop into much of a factor as a receiver. In the eight games Jackson started last year, he went 9 of 10 when passing to Boyle, for 77 yards – so you’re talking about one catch for 10 yards per game.
The Ravens selected tight ends in both the first and third rounds of last year’s draft, and it’s looking like those picks probably should have been flipped. They picked Hayden Hurst in the first, but if his name was tossed back into the draft, I don’t think anyone would take him before the third. He’s fine. I imagine he’ll play some and catch some balls. But he doesn’t seem to have the same ability to get downfield for big catches. At some point, maybe an injury elevates Hurst into a larger role and he becomes a viable option, but doesn’t look like he’s worth being on a fantasy roster to me.
Andrews, on the other hand, looks like the emerging force here – like maybe he should have been picked in the first round. With his hands and ability to get downfield, he looks like he might develop into another Travis Kelce. (Like Kelce, Andrews even likes to hurdle defenders when he’s built up a head of steam and is heading downfield.) I haven’t stacked my board yet, but I’m thinking I might have Andrews high enough that he’ll be on most of the teams I draft this year. I think he might be a starter-caliber tight end who tends to be selected as if he’s just a warm-body depth tight end.
—Ian Allan