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A.J. Brown and D.K. Metcalf

Will better college producer have better NFL career?

It was a little disappointing when A.J. Brown was drafted by the Tennessee Titans. That's long been a lesser passing game and iffy quarterback situation, plus they seem to already have a No. 1 wideout in Corey Davis. Had Brown gone to Seattle, like Mississippi teammate D.K. Metcalf, and we'd be talking about a potential top-5 pick in rookie drafts.

Metcalf generated a lot more hype the last couple of months, due to his huge combine performance and huge physique (you're probably seen the shirtless picture, which drew enough attention that Pete Carroll took off his own shirt when meeting up with Metcalf draft weekend -- yes, that happened). But Brown was the better college performer by far. Could he go on to have the better NFL career?

I took at look at examples this century of college teammates both being drafted in the first three rounds. It's happened more often than you'd think -- 17 times in the last 20 years. How often has the guy who had the better final season of college gone to have the better pro career?

Judge for yourself. Of the 16 previous instances where a pair of wideouts from the same school were drafted early, eight of them didn't seem to help or hurt the argument. In those eight cases, either both wideouts were busts, both turned out great, or both put up very similar college numbers.

Of the other eight, I counted six times where the better college player had the better pro career. Those guys are in bold. Two times the inferior college numbers produced the better pro career. Those two are in italics. In the table, numbers are final year of college receiving.

TEAMMATES DRAFTED IN FIRST THREE ROUNDS, 2000-PRESENT
YearRdPkPlayerSchoolNoYdsTD
2019251A. J. Brown, Tenn.Mississippi8513206
2019264D.K. Metcalf, Sea.Mississippi265695
2016247Michael Thomas, N.O.Ohio State567819
2016385Braxton Miller, Hou.Ohio State 263414
2014112Odell Beckham Jr., NYGLouisiana State5911529
2014263Jarvis Landry, Mia.Louisiana State565735
2013129Cordarrelle Patterson, Minn.Tennessee467785
2013234Justin Hunter, Tenn.Tennessee7310839
201318Tavon Austin, St.L.West Virginia114128912
2013392Stedman Bailey, St.L.West Virginia114162225
2011244Titus Young, Det.Boise State7112159
2011378Austin Pettis, St.L.Boise State7195110
2009129Hakeem Nicks, NYGNorth Carolina 68122212
2009383Brandon Tate, N.E.North Carolina 163763
2009382Derrick Williams, Det.Penn State 444854
2009391Deon Butler, Sea.Penn State 478107
2007123Dwayne Bowe, K.C.Louisiana State6599012
2007130Craig Davis, S.D.Louisiana State568364
200719Ted Ginn Jr., Mia.Ohio State597819
2007132Anthony Gonzalez, Ind.Ohio State517348
2007245Dwayne Jarrett, Car.Southern Cal70101512
2007251Steve Smith, NYGSouthern Cal7110839
2005122Mark Clayton, Balt.Oklahoma668768
2005239Mark Bradley, Chi.Oklahoma234917
2005396Brandon Jones, Tenn.Oklahoma273453
2004115Michael Clayton, T.B.Louisiana State78107910
2004250Devery Henderson, N.O.Louisiana State5386111
2002233Jabar Gaffney, Hou.Florida67119113
2002248Reche Caldwell, S.D.Florida65105910
2001116Santana Moss, NYJMiami457485
2001130Reggie Wayne, Ind.Miami4375510
2000110Travis Taylor, Balt.Florida344636
2000380Darrell Jackson, Sea.Florida6711569
200014Peter Warrick, Cin.Florida State7193411
2000366Ron Dugans, Cin.Florida State436443
2000378Laveranues Coles, NYJFlorida State121791

Laveranues Coles, it should be noted, played in only four games his final year of college. The other inferior college producer, Cordarrelle Patterson, hasn't been a great pro, but he's had his moments (more than Hunter, certainly).

Plenty of times the better college player was expected to be better -- e.g., Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry, or Michael Thomas and Braxton Miller. And Brown was selected a little earlier than Metcalf, so it shouldn't be a surprise if he's better. But he hasn't drawn the hype of Metcalf, and I think he's being selected later in a lot of rookie drafts. Anyway, will be interesting to watch these players over the next few years. Maybe it'll be a Santana Moss-Reggie Wayne deal, where both turn out great.

--Andy Richardson

Fantasy Index