Rob Gronkowski is gone, and no one can really replace him in New England. The Patriots have a host of different candidates, but not only don't they have a clear No. 1, the closest thing they do have to such a player won't be available the first month of the season.
The Patriots signed Benjamin Watson out of retirement himself a few weeks back. He's 38 years old, but between his receiving ability, history with the organization, and experience compared to the other options on the roster, he seemed to be the favorite. But Watson has been suspended for the first four games of the season due to use of performance enhancer drugs. If you select Watson in a fantasy draft, not only do you have the risk that he doesn't emerge as the team's best option at the position, over Austin Seferian-Jenkins and Matt LaCosse, but you definitely won't have him available before Week 5. A long time to save a bench spot in many leagues for potentially little upside.
Several weeks ago Ian Allan laid out how little upside it might be. That's because over the last three seasons, including playoffs, New England has been without Gronkowski for a total of 16 games, so a season's worth of stats. In those games, Patriots tight ends have barely done anything in the passing game, catching a total of 44 passes and 4 TDs. That's bottom-5 production compared to other NFL team tight end production last season.
| TEAM TIGHT END PRODUCTION | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | No | Yards | Avg | TD | PPR |
| Philadelphia | 155 | 1571 | 10.1 | 12 | 384.1 |
| Indianapolis | 108 | 1216 | 11.3 | 21 | 355.6 |
| Kansas City | 115 | 1500 | 13.0 | 13 | 343.0 |
| San Francisco | 95 | 1481 | 15.6 | 7 | 285.1 |
| Oakland | 91 | 1111 | 12.2 | 10 | 262.1 |
| Pittsburgh | 86 | 1119 | 13.0 | 6 | 233.9 |
| Tampa Bay | 73 | 911 | 12.5 | 11 | 230.1 |
| Baltimore | 86 | 1071 | 12.5 | 5 | 223.1 |
| Washington | 84 | 966 | 11.5 | 5 | 210.6 |
| Cleveland | 75 | 853 | 11.4 | 8 | 208.3 |
| NY Giants | 79 | 935 | 11.8 | 5 | 202.5 |
| Green Bay | 81 | 922 | 11.4 | 4 | 197.2 |
| Atlanta | 85 | 799 | 9.4 | 5 | 194.9 |
| Tennessee | 67 | 802 | 12.0 | 7 | 189.2 |
| Carolina | 65 | 676 | 10.4 | 7 | 174.6 |
| Chicago | 64 | 668 | 10.4 | 7 | 172.8 |
| Minnesota | 74 | 747 | 10.1 | 4 | 172.7 |
| NY Jets | 67 | 735 | 11.0 | 5 | 170.5 |
| Cincinnati | 67 | 708 | 10.6 | 5 | 167.8 |
| New Orleans | 66 | 739 | 11.2 | 4 | 163.9 |
| Dallas | 68 | 710 | 10.4 | 4 | 163.0 |
| Houston | 61 | 745 | 12.2 | 4 | 159.5 |
| Seattle | 51 | 600 | 11.8 | 8 | 159.0 |
| Denver | 68 | 649 | 9.5 | 3 | 150.9 |
| LA Rams | 58 | 617 | 10.6 | 5 | 149.7 |
| New England | 54 | 761 | 14.1 | 3 | 148.1 |
| LA Chargers | 48 | 567 | 11.8 | 3 | 122.7 |
| Jacksonville | 59 | 530 | 9.0 | 1 | 118.0 |
| Pats (no Gronk) | 44 | 487 | 11.1 | 4 | 116.7 |
| Detroit | 45 | 461 | 10.2 | 4 | 115.1 |
| Buffalo | 56 | 525 | 9.4 | 1 | 114.5 |
| Arizona | 46 | 475 | 10.3 | 1 | 99.5 |
| Miami | 39 | 386 | 9.9 | 2 | 89.6 |
So the first month of the season, it will be Austin Seferian-Jenkins and Matt LaCosse. If one of those guys plays well and emerges as a reliable threat for Tom Brady, Watson might never really have a significant role in the offense.
Looking at the numbers, I was a little surprised to see that Seferian-Jenkins actually caught 50 passes for the Jets two years ago. Those catches went for just 357 yards -- a mere 7.1 yards per catch. Seldom has one player done so little with so many catches. You wouldn't think there'd be a player less likely to do anything after the catch than a 38-year-old Watson, but Seferian-Jenkins might be the guy. Table shows all tight ends to catch at least 30 passes in either of the last two seasons. Seferian-Jenkins was a yard and a half per reception below everyone else.
| TIGHT END RECEIVING, 2017-2018 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | No | Yds | Avg | TD |
| 2018 | O.J. Howard, T.B. | 34 | 565 | 16.6 | 5 |
| 2018 | Mark Andrews, Balt. | 34 | 552 | 16.2 | 3 |
| 2017 | Rob Gronkowski, N.E. | 69 | 1084 | 15.7 | 8 |
| 2018 | George Kittle, S.F. | 88 | 1377 | 15.6 | 5 |
| 2017 | Vernon Davis, Was. | 43 | 648 | 15.1 | 3 |
| 2017 | Ed Dickson, Car. | 30 | 437 | 14.6 | 1 |
| 2018 | Rob Gronkowski, N.E. | 47 | 682 | 14.5 | 3 |
| 2018 | Jesse James, Pitt. | 30 | 423 | 14.1 | 2 |
| 2018 | Jared Cook, Oak. | 68 | 896 | 13.2 | 6 |
| 2018 | Travis Kelce, K.C. | 103 | 1336 | 13.0 | 10 |
| 2018 | Chris Herndon, NYJ | 39 | 502 | 12.9 | 4 |
| 2017 | Hunter Henry, S.D. | 45 | 579 | 12.9 | 4 |
| 2018 | Evan Engram, NYG | 45 | 577 | 12.8 | 3 |
| 2017 | Jared Cook, G.B. | 54 | 688 | 12.7 | 2 |
| 2017 | Travis Kelce, K.C. | 83 | 1038 | 12.5 | 8 |
| 2017 | Cameron Brate, T.B. | 48 | 591 | 12.3 | 6 |
| 2018 | Vance McDonald, Pitt. | 50 | 610 | 12.2 | 4 |
| 2017 | David Njoku, Cle. | 32 | 386 | 12.1 | 4 |
| 2017 | George Kittle, S.F. | 43 | 515 | 12.0 | 2 |
| 2017 | Seth Devalve, Cle. | 33 | 395 | 12.0 | 1 |
| 2018 | Jimmy Graham, Sea. | 55 | 636 | 11.6 | 2 |
| 2018 | Benjamin Watson, Balt. | 35 | 400 | 11.4 | 2 |
| 2018 | David Njoku, Cle. | 56 | 639 | 11.4 | 4 |
| 2017 | Charles Clay, Buff. | 49 | 558 | 11.4 | 2 |
| 2018 | Eric Ebron, Det. | 66 | 750 | 11.4 | 13 |
| 2017 | Evan Engram, NYG | 64 | 722 | 11.3 | 6 |
| 2017 | Zach Ertz, Phil. | 74 | 824 | 11.1 | 8 |
| 2017 | Delanie Walker, Ten. | 74 | 807 | 10.9 | 3 |
| 2017 | Eric Ebron, Det. | 53 | 574 | 10.8 | 4 |
| 2017 | Austin Hooper, Atl. | 49 | 526 | 10.7 | 3 |
| 2018 | Trey Burton, Phil. | 54 | 569 | 10.5 | 6 |
| 2017 | Antonio Gates, S.D. | 30 | 316 | 10.5 | 3 |
| 2018 | Jordan Reed, Was. | 54 | 558 | 10.3 | 2 |
| 2018 | C.J. Uzomah, Cin. | 43 | 439 | 10.2 | 3 |
| 2018 | Dallas Goedert, Phil. | 33 | 334 | 10.1 | 4 |
| 2018 | Ricky Seals-Jones, Ariz. | 34 | 343 | 10.1 | 1 |
| 2018 | Zach Ertz, Phil. | 116 | 1163 | 10.0 | 8 |
| 2018 | Kyle Rudolph, Min. | 64 | 634 | 9.9 | 4 |
| 2017 | Jermaine Gresham, Ariz. | 33 | 322 | 9.8 | 2 |
| 2018 | Gerald Everett, LAR | 33 | 320 | 9.7 | 3 |
| 2018 | Cameron Brate, T.B. | 30 | 289 | 9.6 | 6 |
| 2017 | Tyler Kroft, Cin. | 42 | 404 | 9.6 | 7 |
| 2017 | Martellus Bennett, N.E. | 30 | 286 | 9.5 | 0 |
| 2017 | Julius Thomas, Jac. | 41 | 388 | 9.5 | 3 |
| 2017 | Kyle Rudolph, Min. | 57 | 532 | 9.3 | 8 |
| 2018 | Austin Hooper, Atl. | 71 | 660 | 9.3 | 4 |
| 2018 | Ian Thomas, Car. | 36 | 333 | 9.3 | 2 |
| 2017 | Jimmy Graham, Sea. | 57 | 520 | 9.1 | 10 |
| 2018 | Jeff Heuerman, Den. | 31 | 281 | 9.1 | 2 |
| 2017 | Jason Witten, Dall. | 63 | 560 | 8.9 | 5 |
| 2017 | Jesse James, Pitt. | 43 | 372 | 8.7 | 3 |
| 2017 | Jack Doyle, Ind. | 80 | 690 | 8.6 | 4 |
| 2017 | Benjamin Watson, Balt. | 61 | 522 | 8.6 | 4 |
| 2017 | Austin Seferian-Jenkins, 2TM | 50 | 357 | 7.1 | 3 |
So, Matt LaCosse, anyone? The former Bronco caught 24 passes last season. If I were going to take a last-round flier on a Patriots tight end in an early or best-ball tight draft, he'd be my favorite. But again, the post-Gronk history suggests minimal production regardless.
--Andy Richardson