If I’m walking into a dynasty draft, I have some interest in Jace Sternberger. He’s definitely a pass-catching tight end, and I’m thinking the Packers would like to get rid of Jimmy Graham sooner rather than later.
I expect Graham will be their tight end this season, but I would be shocked if he’s still around in 2020. It should be Sternberger’s gig at that time, and he could pick up that ball and run with it nicely, working with Aaron Rodgers.
Sternberger played only one season at Texas A&M but it was a good one. Getting downfield like a receiver, he caught 48 passes for 832 yards, with 10 TDs.
He’s just a third round tight end, of course, but that’s been a pretty good area for tight ends. In this century, 39 have been selected in the third round, and 8 of them have gone on to be what you would call impact pass catchers. That’s a solid 1 in 5 hit rate (and I expect a third-round from last year, Mark Andrews, will be added to the lists of hits).
Jason Witten, Travis Kelce, Jordan Reed and Jimmy Graham were all third-round picks.
Instant impact, though, not so much. In this century, only five (of those 39) have finished with top-20 numbers in their first season, and none higher than 12th.
| THIRD-ROUND TIGHT ENDS | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | No | Yards | TD | PPR | Rnk |
| 2000 | Erron Kinney, Ten. | 19 | 197 | 1 | 44.7 | 30 |
| 2000 | Dustin Lyman, Chi. | 1 | 4 | 0 | .0 | -- |
| 2001 | Sean Brewer, Cin. | 0 | 0 | 0 | .0 | -- |
| 2001 | Shad Meier, Ten. | 3 | 31 | 0 | .0 | -- |
| 2002 | Matt Schobel, Cin. | 27 | 212 | 2 | 60.2 | 30 |
| 2002 | Chris Baker, NYJ | 2 | 14 | 0 | .0 | -- |
| 2003 | • Jason Witten , Dall. | 35 | 347 | 1 | 75.7 | 20 |
| 2003 | Visante Shiancoe , NYG | 10 | 56 | 2 | .0 | -- |
| 2003 | Mike Seidman , Car. | 5 | 35 | 0 | .0 | -- |
| 2004 | • Chris Cooley, Was. | 37 | 314 | 6 | 104.4 | 12 |
| 2004 | Ben Hartsock, Ten. | 4 | 33 | 0 | 7.3 | 38 |
| 2005 | Alex Smith, T.B. | 41 | 367 | 2 | 89.7 | 19 |
| 2005 | Kevin Everett, Buff. | 0 | 0 | 0 | .0 | -- |
| 2007 | Matt Spaeth, Pitt. | 5 | 34 | 3 | 26.4 | 53 |
| 2008 | • Jermichael Finley, G.B. | 6 | 74 | 1 | 19.4 | 60 |
| 2008 | Brad Cottam, K.C. | 7 | 63 | 0 | 13.3 | 71 |
| 2008 | Craig Stevens, Ten. | 1 | 9 | 0 | 1.9 | 95 |
| 2009 | • Jared Cook, Ten. | 9 | 74 | 0 | 16.4 | 69 |
| 2009 | Travis Beckum, NYG | 8 | 55 | 0 | 13.5 | 73 |
| 2009 | Chase Coffman, Cin. | 0 | 0 | 0 | .0 | -- |
| 2010 | Tony Moeaki, K.C. | 47 | 556 | 3 | 120.6 | 17 |
| 2010 | • Jimmy Graham, N.O. | 31 | 356 | 5 | 96.6 | 27 |
| 2010 | Ed Dickson, Balt. | 11 | 152 | 1 | 32.2 | 52 |
| 2011 | Rob Housler, Ariz. | 12 | 133 | 0 | 25.3 | 54 |
| 2012 | Dwayne Allen, Ind. | 45 | 521 | 3 | 115.1 | 25 |
| 2012 | Michael Egnew, Mia. | 0 | 0 | 0 | .0 | -- |
| 2013 | • Jordan Reed, Was. | 45 | 499 | 3 | 112.9 | 22 |
| 2013 | • Travis Kelce, K.C. | 0 | 0 | 0 | .0 | -- |
| 2014 | Richard Rodgers, G.B. | 20 | 225 | 2 | 54.5 | 43 |
| 2014 | Crockett Gillmore, Balt. | 10 | 121 | 1 | 28.1 | 58 |
| 2014 | C.J. Fiedorowicz, Hou. | 4 | 28 | 1 | 12.8 | 80 |
| 2015 | Clive Walford, Oak. | 28 | 329 | 3 | 78.9 | 31 |
| 2015 | Tyler Kroft, Cin. | 11 | 129 | 1 | 29.9 | 59 |
| 2015 | Jeff Heuerman, Den. | 0 | 0 | 0 | .0 | -- |
| 2016 | • Austin Hooper , Atl. | 19 | 271 | 3 | 64.1 | 38 |
| 2016 | Nick Vannett , Sea. | 3 | 32 | 0 | 6.2 | 94 |
| 2017 | Jonnu Smith, Ten. | 18 | 157 | 2 | 45.7 | 47 |
| 2018 | Mark Andrews, Balt. | 34 | 552 | 3 | 107.2 | 17 |
| 2018 | Jordan Akins, Hou. | 17 | 225 | 0 | 39.5 | 53 |
| 2019 | Dawson Knox, Buff. | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 2019 | Kahale Warring, Hou. | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 2019 | Jace Sternberger, G.B. | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 2019 | Josh Oliver, Jac. | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
A busy year, by the way, for tight ends in the third round. There were four selected. That’s the most since 1982, when five were selected. (Two notable tight ends among those five from 1982 – Rodney Holman and Pete Metzelaars.)
For this 2019 class, I don’t think any will make a big rookie impact. I think we’re looking more at 2020 and beyond. To me, Sternberger is the best. If I were walking into a dynasty draft, I would have him pegged as one of the second 12 selected. Excellent prospect to sit on for a year.
—Ian Allan