Playing around with some numbers, I stumbled onto another reason to not use an early pick on Chicago’s defense. It projects to play a much harder schedule this year.

Strength of schedule ain’t everything, of course. But if you plug in the sack and turnover numbers from last year, Chicago projects to play the least friendly schedule in the league.

The Bears’ 16 opponents combined threw only 166 interceptions last year – about 10 and half per game. That’s the fewest in the league. They’ll play two games each against Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford and Kirk Cousins, and those guys don’t tend to throw many picks.

The schedule is more average in terms of fumbles and sacks, but if you use 2 points for turnovers and 1 point for sacks, the Bears slot out last of the 32 teams.

Minnesota, Jacksonville and Houston also tend to be highly regarded, and they also grade out in the bottom 5. (The Jaguars were the Bears-type defense of last summer, but they slid last year – great with an easy schedule in 2017, and they slipped with a harder slate in 2018).

The Saints, Giants, Patriots and Bengals project to play the easiest schedules.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, Defenses (2019 season)
TeamIntFumSackTotal
New Orleans2261426831,419
NY Giants2181446911,415
New England2331366661,404
Cincinnati2321546281,400
Washington2041496841,390
LA Rams2241376571,379
NY Jets2191456511,379
Indianapolis2031456811,377
Seattle2331466121,370
Carolina2051446671,365
Atlanta2251416301,362
Detroit1951466781,360
Tennessee2191486261,360
Philadelphia1901307051,345
Baltimore2381236211,343
Denver1971466501,336
LA Chargers1931476471,327
Green Bay2031376411,321
Cleveland2281306021,318
Pittsburgh2281306011,317
Buffalo2151316191,311
Dallas2011376331,309
Miami2351335681,304
Kansas City1831486401,302
Arizona2141266181,298
Tampa Bay1901376401,294
San Francisco2051236351,291
Minnesota1691366801,290
Jacksonville2091276091,281
Houston2051485701,276
Oakland1991296091,265
Chicago1661376541,260

Chicago played a far more favorable schedule last year (most notably with opponents throwing 47 more interceptions).

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, Defenses (2018 season)
TeamIntFumSackTotal
Indianapolis2031457511,447
New England2281516571,415
Chicago2131426911,401
Tennessee2071516701,386
Washington1891507061,384
Houston2241446461,382
Seattle2131446671,381
NY Giants2071456761,380
Detroit2031476751,375
Miami2181486341,366
Green Bay2171396491,361
NY Jets2151416471,359
LA Rams1971446751,357
Minnesota2011476491,345
Philadelphia1971306821,336
San Francisco2011296731,333
Kansas City2111416291,333
LA Chargers2221316271,333
Dallas2001306691,329
New Orleans2221326211,329
Denver2091366381,328
Buffalo1961506331,325
Jacksonville2131286421,324
Atlanta2221326091,317
Arizona1891326631,305
Carolina2011326161,282
Baltimore2341235671,281
Cincinnati2191415391,259
Cleveland2111345661,256
Tampa Bay1961375871,253
Oakland2191215731,253
Pittsburgh2071355691,253

—Ian Allan