Playing around with some numbers, I stumbled onto another reason to not use an early pick on Chicago’s defense. It projects to play a much harder schedule this year.
Strength of schedule ain’t everything, of course. But if you plug in the sack and turnover numbers from last year, Chicago projects to play the least friendly schedule in the league.
The Bears’ 16 opponents combined threw only 166 interceptions last year – about 10 and half per game. That’s the fewest in the league. They’ll play two games each against Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford and Kirk Cousins, and those guys don’t tend to throw many picks.
The schedule is more average in terms of fumbles and sacks, but if you use 2 points for turnovers and 1 point for sacks, the Bears slot out last of the 32 teams.
Minnesota, Jacksonville and Houston also tend to be highly regarded, and they also grade out in the bottom 5. (The Jaguars were the Bears-type defense of last summer, but they slid last year – great with an easy schedule in 2017, and they slipped with a harder slate in 2018).
The Saints, Giants, Patriots and Bengals project to play the easiest schedules.
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, Defenses (2019 season) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Team | Int | Fum | Sack | Total |
New Orleans | 226 | 142 | 683 | 1,419 |
NY Giants | 218 | 144 | 691 | 1,415 |
New England | 233 | 136 | 666 | 1,404 |
Cincinnati | 232 | 154 | 628 | 1,400 |
Washington | 204 | 149 | 684 | 1,390 |
LA Rams | 224 | 137 | 657 | 1,379 |
NY Jets | 219 | 145 | 651 | 1,379 |
Indianapolis | 203 | 145 | 681 | 1,377 |
Seattle | 233 | 146 | 612 | 1,370 |
Carolina | 205 | 144 | 667 | 1,365 |
Atlanta | 225 | 141 | 630 | 1,362 |
Detroit | 195 | 146 | 678 | 1,360 |
Tennessee | 219 | 148 | 626 | 1,360 |
Philadelphia | 190 | 130 | 705 | 1,345 |
Baltimore | 238 | 123 | 621 | 1,343 |
Denver | 197 | 146 | 650 | 1,336 |
LA Chargers | 193 | 147 | 647 | 1,327 |
Green Bay | 203 | 137 | 641 | 1,321 |
Cleveland | 228 | 130 | 602 | 1,318 |
Pittsburgh | 228 | 130 | 601 | 1,317 |
Buffalo | 215 | 131 | 619 | 1,311 |
Dallas | 201 | 137 | 633 | 1,309 |
Miami | 235 | 133 | 568 | 1,304 |
Kansas City | 183 | 148 | 640 | 1,302 |
Arizona | 214 | 126 | 618 | 1,298 |
Tampa Bay | 190 | 137 | 640 | 1,294 |
San Francisco | 205 | 123 | 635 | 1,291 |
Minnesota | 169 | 136 | 680 | 1,290 |
Jacksonville | 209 | 127 | 609 | 1,281 |
Houston | 205 | 148 | 570 | 1,276 |
Oakland | 199 | 129 | 609 | 1,265 |
Chicago | 166 | 137 | 654 | 1,260 |
Chicago played a far more favorable schedule last year (most notably with opponents throwing 47 more interceptions).
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, Defenses (2018 season) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Team | Int | Fum | Sack | Total |
Indianapolis | 203 | 145 | 751 | 1,447 |
New England | 228 | 151 | 657 | 1,415 |
Chicago | 213 | 142 | 691 | 1,401 |
Tennessee | 207 | 151 | 670 | 1,386 |
Washington | 189 | 150 | 706 | 1,384 |
Houston | 224 | 144 | 646 | 1,382 |
Seattle | 213 | 144 | 667 | 1,381 |
NY Giants | 207 | 145 | 676 | 1,380 |
Detroit | 203 | 147 | 675 | 1,375 |
Miami | 218 | 148 | 634 | 1,366 |
Green Bay | 217 | 139 | 649 | 1,361 |
NY Jets | 215 | 141 | 647 | 1,359 |
LA Rams | 197 | 144 | 675 | 1,357 |
Minnesota | 201 | 147 | 649 | 1,345 |
Philadelphia | 197 | 130 | 682 | 1,336 |
San Francisco | 201 | 129 | 673 | 1,333 |
Kansas City | 211 | 141 | 629 | 1,333 |
LA Chargers | 222 | 131 | 627 | 1,333 |
Dallas | 200 | 130 | 669 | 1,329 |
New Orleans | 222 | 132 | 621 | 1,329 |
Denver | 209 | 136 | 638 | 1,328 |
Buffalo | 196 | 150 | 633 | 1,325 |
Jacksonville | 213 | 128 | 642 | 1,324 |
Atlanta | 222 | 132 | 609 | 1,317 |
Arizona | 189 | 132 | 663 | 1,305 |
Carolina | 201 | 132 | 616 | 1,282 |
Baltimore | 234 | 123 | 567 | 1,281 |
Cincinnati | 219 | 141 | 539 | 1,259 |
Cleveland | 211 | 134 | 566 | 1,256 |
Tampa Bay | 196 | 137 | 587 | 1,253 |
Oakland | 219 | 121 | 573 | 1,253 |
Pittsburgh | 207 | 135 | 569 | 1,253 |
—Ian Allan