While many would like for Bill Belichick and 42-year-old Tom Brady to simply go away, that doesn’t look likely to happen soon. The Patriots still have one of the league’s best teams, and they’ll also benefit from playing one of the easiest schedules.
New England has been dominating the AFC East for years, and it looks like a down year for that division. The Dolphins might be the worst team in the league. The Bills and Jets are both hoping to make the push up to .500 or beyond, but neither looks particularly likely to make the playoffs.
So not only are the Patriots are a good team, they’re also operating at a lower degree of difficulty.
Below see a blend of fact and opinion, showing what I think the schedules will look like in the first half of the season. This is the first eight games for each team. For the win-loss records and the defensive points allowed, I’m not using what the teams did last year. Teams change, so I’m instead using an estimation of what the teams will be this year. I’m plugging in win-loss forecast for each team, and I’m using the projected points allowed number that Andy has calculated for each defense (I’ve pulled that out of the Monday update).
Add them up, and the Patriots in their first eight games project to play teams with a combined win-loss record of 51-76-1. That’s four games easier than any other team. Next in line: Cowboys, Bills, Giants.
The hardest schedules (if my expectations are correct) in the first eight games will belong to Houston, Atlanta, Cleveland and Oakland. (That’s notable, with three of those teams expected by many to have some of the league’s best offenses.)
| SCHEDULE DIFFICULTY (first 8 games) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | W | L | T | Points |
| New England | 51 | 76 | 1 | 23.6 |
| Dallas | 55 | 72 | 1 | 24.0 |
| Buffalo | 56 | 72 | 0 | 23.7 |
| NY Giants | 56 | 69 | 3 | 23.2 |
| San Francisco | 57 | 70 | 1 | 24.3 |
| Philadelphia | 57 | 68 | 3 | 23.0 |
| Minnesota | 58 | 68 | 2 | 23.6 |
| Carolina | 58 | 68 | 2 | 24.0 |
| • LA Chargers | 59 | 65 | 4 | 22.3 |
| Kansas City | 59 | 63 | 6 | 22.6 |
| Pittsburgh | 63 | 64 | 1 | 23.4 |
| Arizona | 62 | 63 | 3 | 23.6 |
| Tennessee | 62 | 62 | 4 | 22.7 |
| Cincinnati | 63 | 63 | 2 | 22.9 |
| Baltimore | 64 | 64 | 0 | 24.0 |
| LA Rams | 63 | 63 | 2 | 24.3 |
| New Orleans | 63 | 62 | 3 | 22.7 |
| Chicago | 63 | 62 | 3 | 22.8 |
| • Miami | 64 | 62 | 2 | 21.9 |
| Washington | 65 | 62 | 1 | 22.9 |
| Detroit | 65 | 62 | 1 | 23.8 |
| Jacksonville | 65 | 59 | 4 | 23.1 |
| Seattle | 67 | 60 | 1 | 23.7 |
| Denver | 67 | 58 | 3 | 22.5 |
| Indianapolis | 67 | 58 | 3 | 22.6 |
| Tampa Bay | 67 | 58 | 3 | 23.1 |
| Green Bay | 67 | 57 | 4 | 22.6 |
| • NY Jets | 68 | 57 | 3 | 22.1 |
| • Oakland | 68 | 56 | 4 | 22.4 |
| • Cleveland | 70 | 57 | 1 | 22.4 |
| • Atlanta | 70 | 56 | 2 | 22.3 |
| Houston | 69 | 54 | 5 | 23.0 |
In the chart, the teams are sorted by wins & losses. There are five teams that are bolded; those are the ones whose first eight games are against defenses that on average should allow at least 24 points per game (easy schedules, scoring wise). There are six teams flagged by the dreaded black dots, and those are the ones with the hardest schedules (expected to allowed under 22.5 points per game).
These projections come from a mixture of our own forecasts and the real-life NFL schedule. They would change as those numbers were tweaked. The feeder numbers for this project are listed below. (On the points, those are defensive points – points allowed – rather than points the team’s offense will score).
| SLOTTING NUMBERS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | W | L | T | Points |
| Arizona | 5 | 11 | 0 | 26.6 |
| Atlanta | 9 | 7 | 0 | 24.5 |
| Baltimore | 9 | 7 | 0 | 21.6 |
| Buffalo | 6 | 9 | 1 | 22.4 |
| Carolina | 8 | 7 | 1 | 23.3 |
| Chicago | 9 | 7 | 0 | 20.8 |
| Cincinnati | 5 | 11 | 0 | 27.5 |
| Cleveland | 9 | 7 | 0 | 22.4 |
| Dallas | 8 | 7 | 1 | 20.9 |
| Denver | 7 | 8 | 1 | 21.7 |
| Detroit | 6 | 9 | 1 | 23.7 |
| Green Bay | 8 | 8 | 0 | 24.6 |
| Houston | 8 | 7 | 1 | 20.6 |
| Indianapolis | 9 | 6 | 1 | 21.7 |
| Jacksonville | 7 | 8 | 1 | 20.5 |
| Kansas City | 12 | 4 | 0 | 24.7 |
| LA Chargers | 9 | 7 | 0 | 21.0 |
| LA Rams | 11 | 5 | 0 | 23.2 |
| Miami | 3 | 13 | 0 | 27.1 |
| Minnesota | 9 | 7 | 0 | 21.2 |
| New England | 12 | 4 | 0 | 20.8 |
| New Orleans | 10 | 5 | 1 | 22.5 |
| NY Giants | 6 | 10 | 0 | 24.3 |
| NY Jets | 7 | 9 | 0 | 23.8 |
| Oakland | 5 | 10 | 1 | 26.0 |
| Philadelphia | 11 | 5 | 0 | 22.0 |
| Pittsburgh | 9 | 7 | 0 | 21.5 |
| San Francisco | 7 | 9 | 0 | 25.7 |
| Seattle | 9 | 7 | 0 | 21.7 |
| Tampa Bay | 6 | 10 | 0 | 27.0 |
| Tennessee | 8 | 8 | 0 | 21.0 |
| Washington | 4 | 12 | 0 | 23.1 |
—Ian Allan