With rookie running backs (outside of franchise-type guys like Saquon Barkley), I tend to take a wait-and-see attitude. I want to see something on the field before I get too interested in committing big resources to go after said player. But it looks like David Montgomery might be creeping out of that class.

A few weeks back, Matt Nagy was noting that Montgomery is exceeding expectations as a pass catcher. In that regard, he’s a much better fit with this offense than Jordan Howard. Poor receiving ability was the driver behind Howard being traded to Philadelphia.

Now there’s another article, appearing in The Athletic, suggesting Montgomery looks really good as a runner.

Charles London, the team’s running backs coach, says Montgomery has “rare contact balance.” “He definitely possesses that,” London says. “It’s important from the running back position because every play is not going to be clean and every hole is not going to be clean. Sometimes you just got to create that on your own. He did quite a bit of that at Iowa State. That was something that we noticed. And that is something you really can’t coach. You either kind of got it or you don’t and he does. It’s something we quickly noticed about him.”

“Going through the draft process, David, he just popped off the film to you,” London said. “Obviously, he broke a lot of tackles. You could tell he ran with a passion. He caught a lot of balls. There was just something about him there that we really liked.”

(You can see some of Montgomery’s moves and tackle-breaking ability on YouTube.)

The Bears have other running backs. Tarik Cohen will be one the field a lot as a change-of-pace and third down type option – a utility back. Cohen last year ran for 444 yards and 3 TDs and also caught 71 passes for 725 yards and 5 TDs. The Bears also signed Mike Davis, who’s been effective at times the last two years for the Seahawks.

But the way the Bears are talking up Montgomery, he looks most likely to lead this time in rushing.

If Montgomery puts up big numbers this year, however, he’ll be beating the historical odds. Since 2000, 96 running backs have been selected in the second and third rounds. Only eight of those running backs put up top-10 numbers in their first year. Only five others put up top-20 numbers as rookies, and only three ranked in the 20s. Summarizing: using PPR scoring, only 16 of those 96 running backs (one out of every six) ranked higher than 30th at the running back position in their rookie year.

ROOKIE RUNNING BACKS (2nd & 3rd Rd)
YearPlayerNoRecRunTotTDPPRRk
2000Travis Prentice, Clev.371915127038155.329
2000J.R. Redmond, N.E.20126406532391.242
2000Rueben Droughns, Det.00000.0--
2001• Anthony Thomas, Chi.221781,1831,3617202.117
2001Travis Henry, Buff.221797299084136.830
2001Kevan Barlow, S.F.222475127595127.933
2001Travis Minor, Mia.292632815444107.442
2001James Jackson, Clev.756554610280.055
2001Doug Chapman, Minn.16135195330155.068
2001LaMont Jordan, NYJ744292336252.672
2001Heath Evans, Sea.00111101.1142
2002• Clinton Portis, Den.333641,5081,87217322.27
2002Lamar Gordon, St.L.30278228506398.643
2002Ladell Betts, Wash.12154307461164.162
2002Brian Westbrook, Phil.986193279042.282
2002Maurice Morris, Sea.325153178126.895
2003DeShaun Foster, Car.262074296362101.642
2003Chris Brown, Tenn.861221282036.288
2003Justin Fargas, Oak.22203205022.5103
2003Musa Smith, Balt.003131215.1118
2003B.J. Askew, NYJ00990.9157
2004Julius Jones, Dall.171098199287151.831
2004Tatum Bell, Den.580396476370.663
2004Greg Jones, Jac.313162175338.583
2005Frank Gore, S.F.151316087393106.942
2005J.J. Arrington, Ariz.25139370509287.953
2005Ryan Moats, Phil.47278285350.575
2005Vernand Morency, Hou.1087184271249.176
2005Maurice Clarett, Den.00000.0--
2006• Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac.464369411,37716279.78
2006Jerious Norwood, Atl.12102633735297.547
2006LenDale White, Tenn.1460244304044.472
2006Brian Calhoun, Det.220193905.9133
2006Eric Shelton, Car.16232903.9142
2007Lorenzo Booker, Mia.28237125362064.265
2007Brandon Jackson, G.B.16130267397161.767
2007Garrett Wolfe, Chi.911785202029.292
2007Tony Hunt, Phil.00161617.6132
2007Kenny Irons, Cin.00000.0--
2008• Matt Forte, Chi.634771,2381,71512306.52
2008• Steve Slaton, Hou.503771,2821,65910275.97
2008• Kevin Smith, Det.392869761,2628213.217
2008Ray Rice, Balt.332734547270105.749
2008Jamaal Charles, K.C.27272357629195.954
2008Jacob Hester, S.D.129195186242.680
2008Chris Henry, Tenn.00330.3167
2009LeSean McCoy, Phil.403086379454160.532
2009Shonn Greene, NYJ00540540266.066
2009Glen Coffee, S.F.1176226302147.278
2010Toby Gerhart, Minn.21167322489175.958
2010Ben Tate, Hou.00000.0--
2011DeMarco Murray, Dall.261838971,0802146.030
2011Daniel Thomas, Mia.1272581653183.351
2011Stevan Ridley, N.E.313441454154.473
2011Montario Hardesty, Clev.14122266388052.874
2011David Johnson, Ariz.1291091127.193
2011Shane Vereen, N.E.005757111.7123
2011Alex Green, G.B.16111702.7150
2011Mikel Leshoure, Det.00000.0--
2012Bernard Pierce, Balt.747532579170.959
2012Ronnie Hillman, Den.1062330392155.267
2012Ryan Williams, Ariz.744164208027.8101
2012LaMichael James, S.F.329125154018.4116
2012Isaiah Pead, St.L.3165470010.0130
2013• Eddie Lacy, G.B.352571,1781,43511244.58
2013• Giovani Bernard, Cin.565146951,2098224.913
2013• LeVeon Bell, Pitt.453998601,2598218.915
2013Montee Ball, Den.201455597044114.443
2013Knile Davis, K.C.1175242317572.756
2013Christine Michael, Sea.00797907.9131
2014• Jeremy Hill, Cin.272151,1241,3399214.910
2014Tre Mason, St.L.161487659135137.330
2014Terrance West, Clev.11646737375114.741
2014Bishop Sankey, Tenn.181335697022100.244
2014Jerick McKinnon, Minn.27135538673094.348
2014Carlos Hyde, S.F.1268333401476.161
2014Charles Sims, T.B.19190185375162.573
2015Duke Johnson, Clev.615343799132164.324
2015T.J. Yeldon, Jac.362797401,0193155.928
2015Matt Jones, Wash.193044907944122.441
2015Ameer Abdullah, Det.251835977803121.044
2015Tevin Coleman, Atl.214392406148.679
2016Derrick Henry, Tenn.131374906275105.745
2016C.J. Prosise, Sea.17208172380161.068
2016Kenyan Drake, Mia.946179225349.574
2017• Alvin Kamara, N.O.818267281,55414322.43
2017• Kareem Hunt, K.C.534551,3271,78211297.24
2017Joe Mixon, Cin.302876269134145.333
2017Dalvin Cook, Minn.1190354444267.472
2017D'Onta Foreman, Hou.683327410259.074
2017James Conner, Pitt.00144144014.4113
2018• Nick Chubb, Clev.201499961,14510194.517
2018Kerryon Johnson, Det.322136418544141.433
2018Royce Freeman, Den.14725215935103.346
2018Ronald Jones, T.B.7334477120.795
2018Derrius Guice, Wash.00000.0--
2019Alexander Mattison, Minn.???????
2019Damien Harris, N.E.???????
2019Devin Singletary, Buff.???????
2019David Montgomery, Chi.???????
2019Darrell Henderson, LAR???????
2019Miles Sanders, Phil.???????

—Ian Allan