I’m not a big Josh Jacobs fan. Even less so, now that I’m seeing stories suggesting Jacobs might not be signed before the start of training camp.
An article written by Vic Tafur of The Athletic suggests there’s growing concern that the Raiders won’t be able to sign the Alabama running back before the start of rookie drills on July 23. Since the most recent CBA, rookie holdouts have been rare – with the rookie wage scale – but Jacobs and the team have been unable to agree on the schedule that his signing bonus will be paid. When Joey Bosa was a rookie holdout a few years back, it was a dispute over offsets.
I expect this issue will be worked out, probably before the start of camp and almost certainly not much later, but I’m still not high on Jacobs.
He’s a decent enough prospect, but he doesn’t look like a franchise guy. In college, he never ran for 700 yards in a year while sharing time with other players. Remarkably, Jacobs never finished a season at Alabama as one of the top 2 rushers on his own team – he hasn’t proven he can be a reliable, durable performer. He also doesn’t have great measurables, having me thinking he would have been a second- or even third-round pick in most NFL drafts.
While the Raiders selected Jacobs in the first round, he didn’t go until the 24th pick. History shows there’s a big difference at running back between being a later first-round pick, rather than being a can’t-miss guy in the top 5 like Ezekiel Elliott or Saquon Barkley.
In the last 20 years, 33 running backs have been chosen in the first round but not in the top 10. Of those 33, only one finished with top 10 numbers in his first season. That’s using PPR scoring. Only six others finished in the top 20. Over twice as many running backs (14 of those 33) didn’t even rank in the top 40 in their first year.
Current ADP numbers show Jacobs going about 18th among running backs in drafts. That’s earlier than I would take him. Typically in drafts, there are a few owners who tend to like rolling the dice on rookie running backs, having me thinking I’m pretty sure I won’t even get to the point of considering drafting or buying Jacobs in any leagues this year.
FIRST-ROUND BACKS NOT TAKEN IN TOP 10 | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | No | Rec | Run | Yards | TD | PPR | Rk |
2000 | Ron Dayne, NYG | 3 | 11 | 770 | 781 | 5 | 111.1 | 35 |
2000 | Shaun Alexander, Sea. | 5 | 41 | 313 | 354 | 2 | 52.4 | 62 |
2000 | Trung Canidate, St.L. | 1 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 0 | 2.0 | 147 |
2001 | Michael Bennett, Min. | 29 | 226 | 682 | 908 | 3 | 137.8 | 29 |
2001 | Ron Dayne, NYG | 8 | 67 | 690 | 757 | 7 | 127.7 | 35 |
2001 | Deuce McAllister, N.O. | 15 | 166 | 91 | 257 | 2 | 57.3 | 65 |
2002 | William Green, Clev. | 16 | 113 | 887 | 1,000 | 6 | 152.0 | 33 |
2002 | T.J. Duckett, Atl. | 9 | 61 | 507 | 568 | 4 | 89.8 | 47 |
2003 | Larry Johnson, K.C. | 1 | 2 | 85 | 87 | 1 | 15.7 | 116 |
2003 | Willis McGahee, Buff. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -- |
2004 | •Willis McGahee, Buff. | 22 | 169 | 1,128 | 1,297 | 13 | 229.7 | 14 |
2004 | Kevin Jones, Det. | 28 | 180 | 1,133 | 1,313 | 6 | 195.3 | 21 |
2004 | Steven Jackson, St.L. | 19 | 189 | 673 | 862 | 4 | 131.2 | 33 |
2004 | Chris Perry, Cin. | 3 | 33 | 1 | 34 | 0 | 6.4 | 143 |
2006 | •Joseph Addai, Ind. | 40 | 325 | 1,081 | 1,406 | 8 | 228.6 | 13 |
2006 | Laurence Maroney, N.E. | 22 | 194 | 745 | 939 | 7 | 157.9 | 27 |
2006 | DeAngelo Williams, Car. | 33 | 313 | 501 | 814 | 2 | 126.4 | 39 |
2007 | •Marshawn Lynch, Buff. | 18 | 184 | 1,115 | 1,299 | 7 | 196.3 | 16 |
2008 | •Chris Johnson, Ten. | 43 | 260 | 1,228 | 1,488 | 10 | 251.8 | 11 |
2008 | Jonathan Stewart, Car. | 8 | 47 | 836 | 883 | 10 | 156.3 | 33 |
2008 | Felix Jones, Dall. | 2 | 10 | 266 | 276 | 4 | 53.6 | 75 |
2008 | Rashard Mendenhall, Pitt. | 2 | 17 | 58 | 75 | 0 | 9.5 | 128 |
2009 | •Knowshon Moreno, Den. | 28 | 213 | 947 | 1,160 | 9 | 198.0 | 18 |
2009 | Beanie Wells, Ariz. | 12 | 143 | 793 | 936 | 7 | 147.6 | 37 |
2009 | Donald Brown, Ind. | 11 | 169 | 281 | 450 | 3 | 74.0 | 60 |
2010 | •Jahvid Best, Det. | 58 | 487 | 555 | 1,042 | 6 | 198.2 | 20 |
2010 | Ryan Mathews, S.D. | 22 | 145 | 678 | 823 | 7 | 146.3 | 31 |
2011 | Mark Ingram, N.O. | 11 | 46 | 474 | 520 | 5 | 93.0 | 46 |
2012 | •Doug Martin, T.B. | 49 | 472 | 1,454 | 1,926 | 12 | 313.6 | 2 |
2012 | David Wilson, NYG | 4 | 34 | 358 | 392 | 6 | 79.2 | 51 |
2015 | Melvin Gordon, S.D. | 33 | 192 | 641 | 833 | 0 | 116.3 | 45 |
2018 | Sony Michel, N.E. | 7 | 50 | 931 | 981 | 6 | 141.1 | 34 |
2018 | Rashaad Penny, Sea. | 9 | 75 | 419 | 494 | 2 | 70.4 | 68 |
2019 | Josh Jacobs, Oak. | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
—Ian Allan