Fantasy Index

header banner img
OUR FANTASY BASEBALL MAGAZINE IS BACK! PRE-ORDER NOW
Win here.

Around the NFL

Josh Jacobs

Raiders haven't signed first-round running back

I’m not a big Josh Jacobs fan. Even less so, now that I’m seeing stories suggesting Jacobs might not be signed before the start of training camp.

An article written by Vic Tafur of The Athletic suggests there’s growing concern that the Raiders won’t be able to sign the Alabama running back before the start of rookie drills on July 23. Since the most recent CBA, rookie holdouts have been rare – with the rookie wage scale – but Jacobs and the team have been unable to agree on the schedule that his signing bonus will be paid. When Joey Bosa was a rookie holdout a few years back, it was a dispute over offsets.

I expect this issue will be worked out, probably before the start of camp and almost certainly not much later, but I’m still not high on Jacobs.

He’s a decent enough prospect, but he doesn’t look like a franchise guy. In college, he never ran for 700 yards in a year while sharing time with other players. Remarkably, Jacobs never finished a season at Alabama as one of the top 2 rushers on his own team – he hasn’t proven he can be a reliable, durable performer. He also doesn’t have great measurables, having me thinking he would have been a second- or even third-round pick in most NFL drafts.

While the Raiders selected Jacobs in the first round, he didn’t go until the 24th pick. History shows there’s a big difference at running back between being a later first-round pick, rather than being a can’t-miss guy in the top 5 like Ezekiel Elliott or Saquon Barkley.

In the last 20 years, 33 running backs have been chosen in the first round but not in the top 10. Of those 33, only one finished with top 10 numbers in his first season. That’s using PPR scoring. Only six others finished in the top 20. Over twice as many running backs (14 of those 33) didn’t even rank in the top 40 in their first year.

Current ADP numbers show Jacobs going about 18th among running backs in drafts. That’s earlier than I would take him. Typically in drafts, there are a few owners who tend to like rolling the dice on rookie running backs, having me thinking I’m pretty sure I won’t even get to the point of considering drafting or buying Jacobs in any leagues this year.

FIRST-ROUND BACKS NOT TAKEN IN TOP 10
YearPlayerNoRecRunYardsTDPPRRk
2000Ron Dayne, NYG3117707815111.135
2000Shaun Alexander, Sea.541313354252.462
2000Trung Canidate, St.L.1461002.0147
2001Michael Bennett, Min.292266829083137.829
2001Ron Dayne, NYG8676907577127.735
2001Deuce McAllister, N.O.1516691257257.365
2002William Green, Clev.161138871,0006152.033
2002T.J. Duckett, Atl.961507568489.847
2003Larry Johnson, K.C.128587115.7116
2003Willis McGahee, Buff.000000--
2004•Willis McGahee, Buff.221691,1281,29713229.714
2004Kevin Jones, Det.281801,1331,3136195.321
2004Steven Jackson, St.L.191896738624131.233
2004Chris Perry, Cin.33313406.4143
2006•Joseph Addai, Ind.403251,0811,4068228.613
2006Laurence Maroney, N.E.221947459397157.927
2006DeAngelo Williams, Car.333135018142126.439
2007•Marshawn Lynch, Buff.181841,1151,2997196.316
2008•Chris Johnson, Ten.432601,2281,48810251.811
2008Jonathan Stewart, Car.84783688310156.333
2008Felix Jones, Dall.210266276453.675
2008Rashard Mendenhall, Pitt.217587509.5128
2009•Knowshon Moreno, Den.282139471,1609198.018
2009Beanie Wells, Ariz.121437939367147.637
2009Donald Brown, Ind.11169281450374.060
2010•Jahvid Best, Det.584875551,0426198.220
2010Ryan Mathews, S.D.221456788237146.331
2011Mark Ingram, N.O.1146474520593.046
2012•Doug Martin, T.B.494721,4541,92612313.62
2012David Wilson, NYG434358392679.251
2015Melvin Gordon, S.D.331926418330116.345
2018Sony Michel, N.E.7509319816141.134
2018Rashaad Penny, Sea.975419494270.468
2019Josh Jacobs, Oak.???????

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index