Around the NFL

July 14, 2019

Derrius Guice

Hamstring injury adds to concerns with second-year back

Training camps open soon, maybe too soon for some players. One is Washington running back Derrius Guice. Guice missed all of his rookie season due to a torn ACL. One year later, he's dealing with a hamstring injury that might cost him the start of the camp.

Guice himself is downplaying the injury, but it's hard not to be concerned. There were some reports earlier in the offseason about a setback from the ACL recovery, plus Washington brought back Adrian Peterson, who even at an advanced age for running backs showed last year he can still play. It used a fourth-round pick on Bryce Love, and also has Chris Thompson to play on passing downs. Even if we assume Love (coming off an ACL injury of his own) has a redshirt season, how is Guice going to put up big numbers?

Recent history with NFL second-round running backs isn't terrible. This century, there have been 42 previous running backs selected with second-round picks. A little over a third (15) of those backs have gone over 1,000 total yards in their second year in the league. Half (21) have at least gone over 700 yards.

2ND-ROUND RUNNING BACKS, YEAR 2 (2000-PRESENT)
Year	Pk	Player	Run	Rec	Tot	TD
2013	48	LeVeon Bell, Pitt.	1361	854	2215	11
2008	55	Ray Rice, Balt.	1339	702	2041	8
2002	51	Clinton Portis, Den.	1591	314	1905	14
2001	58	Travis Henry, Buff.	1438	309	1747	14
2009	53	LeSean McCoy, Phil.	1080	592	1672	9
2013	61	Eddie Lacy, G.B.	1139	427	1566	13
2017	48	Joe Mixon, Cin.	1168	296	1464	9
2008	44	Matt Forte, Chi.	929	471	1400	4
2006	45	LenDale White, Tenn.	1110	114	1224	7
2004	43	Julius Jones, Dall.	993	218	1211	5
2006	60	Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac.	768	407	1175	10
2010	58	Ben Tate, Hou.	942	98	1040	4
2013	37	Giovani Bernard, Cin.	680	349	1029	7
2004	41	Tatum Bell, Den.	921	104	1025	8
2011	57	Mikel Leshoure, Det.	798	214	1012	9
2017	41	Dalvin Cook, Minn.	615	305	920	4
2001	38	Anthony Thomas, Chi.	721	163	884	6
2016	45	Derrick Henry, Tenn.	744	136	880	6
2014	55	Jeremy Hill, Cin.	794	79	873	12
2015	36	T.J. Yeldon, Jac.	465	312	777	2
2010	51	Toby Gerhart, Minn.	531	190	721	4
2004	55	Greg Jones, Jac.	575	65	640	4
2002	34	DeShaun Foster, Car.	429	207	636	2
2014	57	Carlos Hyde, S.F.	470	53	523	3
2011	62	Daniel Thomas, Mia.	325	156	481	4
2001	49	LaMont Jordan, NYJ	316	160	476	3
2007	63	Brandon Jackson, G.B.	248	185	433	1
2002	56	Ladell Betts, Wash.	255	167	422	2
2011	56	Shane Vereen, N.E.	251	149	400	4
2010	59	Montario Hardesty, Clev.	266	122	388	0
2014	54	Bishop Sankey, Tenn.	193	139	332	2
2002	54	Maurice Morris, Sea.	239	32	271	1
2013	58	Montee Ball, Den.	172	62	234	1
2011	38	Ryan Williams, Ariz.	164	44	208	0
2013	62	Christine Michael, Sea.	175	12	187	0
2015	54	Ameer Abdullah, Det.	101	57	158	1
2012	50	Isaiah Pead, St.L.	21	78	99	0
2005	44	J.J. Arrington, Ariz.	19	58	77	1
2012	61	LaMichael James, S.F.	59	16	75	0
2005	54	Eric Shelton, Car.	23	6	29	0
2007	50	Chris Henry, Tenn.	3	0	3	0
2007	49	Kenny Irons, Cin.	0	0	0	0
2018	35	Nick Chubb, Clev.	?	?	?	?
2018	43	Kerryon Johnson, Det.	?	?	?	?
2018	38	Ronald Jones, T.B.	?	?	?	?
2018	59	Derrius Guice, Wash.	?	?	?	?

Somewhat worrying, though, is the fact that of the 22 who, like Guice, did little or nothing in their first season (under 500 total yards), more than half (13) proceeded to do very little in their second season (also under 500 yards). Only four went over 1,000 total yards, and just two more reached 700. Not great odds for Guice or Ronald Jones (who doesn't have the injury excuse to fall back on).

2ND-ROUND RBS UNDER 500 YARDS AS ROOKIES, YEAR 2 (2000-)
Year	Pk	Player	Run	Rec	Tot	TD
2006	45	LenDale White, Tenn.	1110	114	1224	7
2010	58	Ben Tate, Hou.	942	98	1040	4
2004	41	Tatum Bell, Den.	921	104	1025	8
2011	57	Mikel Leshoure, Det.	798	214	1012	9
2017	41	Dalvin Cook, Minn.	615	305	920	4
2010	51	Toby Gerhart, Minn.	531	190	721	4
2004	55	Greg Jones, Jac.	575	65	640	4
2002	34	DeShaun Foster, Car.	429	207	636	2
2014	57	Carlos Hyde, S.F.	470	53	523	3
2001	49	LaMont Jordan, NYJ	316	160	476	3
2007	63	Brandon Jackson, G.B.	248	185	433	1
2002	56	Ladell Betts, Wash.	255	167	422	2
2011	56	Shane Vereen, N.E.	251	149	400	4
2010	59	Montario Hardesty, Clev.	266	122	388	0
2002	54	Maurice Morris, Sea.	239	32	271	1
2011	38	Ryan Williams, Ariz.	164	44	208	0
2013	62	Christine Michael, Sea.	175	12	187	0
2012	50	Isaiah Pead, St.L.	21	78	99	0
2012	61	LaMichael James, S.F.	59	16	75	0
2005	54	Eric Shelton, Car.	23	6	29	0
2007	50	Chris Henry, Tenn.	3	0	3	0
2007	49	Kenny Irons, Cin.	0	0	0	0
2018	38	Ronald Jones, T.B.	?	?	?	?
2018	59	Derrius Guice, Wash.	?	?	?	?

I've seen Guice regularly selected as a starter; in the Experts Draft in the magazine, granted held before this latest news, he was a fourth-round pick. But to me, there's a lot of risk. Washington has Peterson as a fall-back option and Thompson for passing downs. Love's selection hints at Washington hedging its bets a little on Guice.

Guice can say all is well, but safe to say I'd rather use a late pick on Peterson or Thompson than an early pick on Guice.

--Andy Richardson

Derrius Guice

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