Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition. Why it's best to take a pass on A.J. Green. Weighing the goal-line potential of the four elite running backs. The best handcuff running backs. And using multiple keeper slots on quarterbacks.

Question 1

In the magazine you say A.J. Green is probably not going to put up elite numbers anymore. He played in eight healthy games so if you simply double his numbers that would be 90 catches almost 1,400 yards and 12 TDs. Those look like elite numbers. Is the toe a concern or am I missing something? If he can stay healthy I think top-10 numbers are likely.

David Kennedy (Steamburg, NY)

I have no problem with 90 catches, 1,400 yards and 12 TDs. The Bengals have a new coach and a new offense. There’s been some positive buzz from the players (including Green) during the offseason, so maybe he’s got another top-10 season in him. But I see him as far more likely to be more of a top-20 guy. While he put together good numbers in Sept/Oct last year, he tailed off after a big first half in the Week 2 win over Baltimore – when the Ravens were on the road in a Thursday night game and playing without their top cornerback. Green caught half of his 6 TDs in that game. He scored only 2 TDs in his other seven games. After Week 2, he was outproduced by teammate Tyler Boyd in five of his seven remaining games (that includes Week 13, when Green tried to come back from the toe injury, leaving that game early). I’m not concerned about the toe or his health, but Green will be 31 at the end of the month. I don’t think he’s quite the same baller that he was early in his career. If you go back to the 2012-13 seasons, Green put up top-5 numbers, averaging 6 catches for 87 yards per week, with 11 TDs in each of those seasons. Since that time, he’s averaged 5 catches for 79 yards, with 34 TDs in 64 games. In PPR scoring, he’s ranked 16th, 11th, 5th, 11th and 15th in per-game scoring the last five years. That’s his top-end, I’m thinking, and I’m not sure he’ll put up even the best receiving numbers on his own team. As I looked at the top 30 receivers on my board, I see about a dozen who are far, far more likely to wind up on my team, relative to where they’ll be chosen.

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Question 2

I have the 2nd pick in a 10-team standard scoring league. I live in Dallas, so I’m guessing Zeke goes No. 1. I am worried about Barkley’s offense and will there be enough goal-line opportunities. Same with Cam poaching McCaffrey’s and possible injury. I REALLY like Kamara but concerned about Murray. It seems too high for other backs or Hopkins. What would you do? Of course if he doesn’t go Zeke, then I certainly will!

GARY NOBLE (Richardson, TX)

There are four elite backs in that top class, and I would be comfortable with any of them. If the player in the No. 4 spot wants to throw me a little something, I would not be opposed to moving down two spots. I don’t buy into the premise that Elliott is the best or safest goal-line option of this group. I’m not interested in turning this into a game of trying to avoid Cam Newton. Over the last 2 years, Newton has scored 5 rushing touchdowns when Carolina has been inside the 5-yard line. That’s the same as Drew Brees and one less than Dak Prescott. Last year the Cowboys scored 8 rushing touchdowns when they were inside the 5-yard line, and Elliott scored only 2 of them. That’s 25 percent – the lowest of any of these backs. (Including runs on 2-point conversions, Barkley was at 7 of 9, Kamara was 12 of 20 and McCaffrey was 6 of 12.)

To me, all of these running backs look just fine. Newton has been a crushing, dominant runner inside the 5 in the past, but I don’t think he’s that guy anymore. I think there’s more of a premium now on keeping him out of harm’s way. Newton in his first two seasons carried the ball 27 times and scored 15 touchdowns when Carolina was inside the 5. The last two years, he’s had only 10 carries in that part of the field, with 5 TDs and a 2-point conversion.

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Question 3

I’m intrigued by the Browns’ running game. I think Nick Chubb’s a solid second-round pick, but I am concerned about Kareem Hunt’s role in the second half of the season. Would you take Chubb as high as the second round in a 10-team, no-PPR draft and, if so, how soon would you draft Hunt as his handcuff?

Paul Owers (Lake Worth, FL)

I’ve got Chubb just outside my top 20 overall, so he would go in the third round if I were controlling all 10 teams in that draft. Nice player. Certainly the three touchdown runs over 40 yards last year get your attention. But there are others that I like more. If you draft Chubb, you’re kind of over a barrel in that you are pretty much locked into needing to add Hunt. If you instead draft Dalvin Cook, Damien Williams or James Conner, the price tag of adding the handcuff back is more reasonable.

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Question 4

I play in a TD-only league where passing TDs are worth 6 points. We are able to keep up to 5 players (losing a draft pick for the 4th and 5th keeper) with no term limits. My question is, should I let Aaron Rodgers go and keep Baker Mayfield ?

Mike Craig (Kokomo, IN)

I would keep both of them. That may sound strange, since only one can start, but with 6 points for touchdown passes, quarterbacks are king. They’re both going to be top-10 players at their position, and if we were starting from scratch, both would be selected in the top 15 overall. So I think the correct course is to keep them both and figure it out later. If one of them underperforms or gets injured, you’ll still be in good shape at the most important position, or you might wind up moving one of them in a trade.

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Question 5

I heard today on Sirius XM radio that if Kamara were injured, Lat Murray would be a top 10 RB. I've heard similar comments about other RBs on other places (including here). That's easy to say, but can you do a study to find out? I remember Austin Ekeler was a great RB last year for LAC as a backup, but when Melvin Gordon missed two games, he got to start and did almost nothing. Different role, terrible result.

Dave (MOJO) Smith (Avon Park, FL)

James Conner, Nick Chubb, Phillip Lindsay, C.J. Anderson and Damien Williams were backups entering camp last year. They had some success. It can happen, and I’m sure there will be some 2nd- and 3rd-string running backs who’ll put together some big games. Of the 100-yard rushing games around the league last year, 30 percent were authored by running backs who on Sept. 1 last year weren’t expected to lead their team in rushing. (For the Steelers, I’m calling Conner the starter at that point; 2 of those 31 games belong to Mark Ingram, who was suspended for the first four games last year, making him more of a No. 2 back behind Alvin Kamara – the other 29 were definitely backup-type guys).

But I’m wandering off topic. Let’s circle back to what you’re actually after. Which backup running backs, if they actually get on the field as starters, are most likely to put up top-10 numbers? On this one, I think you’re less interested in which backups are most likely to get on the field; you’re going big game hunting for the guys who might really pay off in some games. Latavius Murray makes the list. I imagine if Kamara were to get hurt, they would want to work in a second back to supplement Murray. But with the way the Saints have been running the ball, Murray looks strong. With how Justin Jackson played last year, I don’t see Ekeler as a handcuff. I think he’s a very good change-of-pace, whose role probably won’t change a whole bunch even if Melvin Gordon misses some time. Kareem Hunt makes sense; if there’s some kind of Chubb injury, Hunt could be a top-5 back late in the year. Rashaad Penny isn’t much of a receiver, but I’m putting him on the list. If Chris Carson breaks down at some point, Penny should put up some big rushing numbers. And I like Jaylen Samuels; he ran for 142 yards against New England last year when Conner was sitting out. But Samuels otherwise wasn’t a great runner, and if Benny Snell develops quickly, that could be more of a platoon backfield should Conner miss time. In Washington, either Adrian Peterson or Derrius Guice will be the featured runner at the start of the year; I expect the other guy will post some good rushing numbers at some point (albeit without much receiving production – neither Peterson nor Guice is a candidate for a top-10 burst during the season). And we should probably mention D’Onta Foreman. He’s not much of a pass catcher and will work behind a suspect line, probably preventing him from putting up top-10 numbers (particularly in PPR formats) but he’s a big, talented guy, and the Texans could move him up into the starting lineup at some point.

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Question 6

TD-only keeper league (where a player can be kept as long as desired). If I had to pick just one, should it be Elliott or Kamara? (putting aside Elliott's current contract holdout) Also get bonus points if an RB catches a TD.

Sarah Clark (Sherman Oaks, CA)

This is a really tough decision. These are two uber-elite choices. They’ll both be 25 at the end of next week. I would explore whether your league rules permit you to trade one for an extra draft pick. If we’re looking at just 2019, I would take Kamara. With Elliott, there’s the annoying tendency of Dak Prescott to run the ball himself around the goal line. Prescott doesn’t actually run all that often, but they tend to dust those plays off often when they’re around the end zone. Prescott has been there three years, and he’s scored 6 TDs in each of those seasons. We tend to think of Kamara as much of a satellite player, but they use him regularly as a ball carrier around the goal line; he’s also more of a threat to catch touchdowns. Kamara has scored 31 touchdowns in his last 28 games. Elliott has scored only 18 TDs in his last 25 games. So I guess Kamara, though it feels weird to be cutting loose maybe the best player in the entire league.

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