Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition. Mixed signals on James Conner. Todd Gurley's balky knee. Is it wise to select Kansas City players with your first two picks? The best draft position. And more.
Question 1
I am confused with the RB situation this year. You have James Conner #5, yet the 2019 FFI summary just gave him a very negative review which changed my position on him from draft to skip.
Jim Venettis (Farmington, MI)
I don’t think Conner is a super talented guy. I don’t think he has the same ability as those guys in the top 4 – Barkley, Gurley, McCaffrey, Kamara. He’s not in that conversation. But he runs hard, and he’s in a good situation. He’ll be heavily used, both rushing and receiving, and he’s working behind a good offensive line. So far me, that makes him the No. 5 back on the board – but a lot more like the rest of the backs in the top 10, rather than the guys ranked ahead of him. Conner is currently the 11th-ranked player on my overall board.
Question 2
I’ve been finding during mock drafts at the back end of the first round turning to start the second, Damien Williams and Tyreek Hill are the best two players on my board. I’m concerned that because I play in a head-to-head, if the K.C. offense is shut out it would mean an automatic loss. Are there any numbers from past seasons condemning drafting players from the same team? Would playing in a total point league change the situation?
Joseph Kennard (Ville Platte, LA)
I wouldn’t hesitate to draft both of those guys. That’s an elite offense – maybe the No. 1 offense. Kansas City scored at least 26 points in every game last year. Both of those guys are contenders for top-5 production at their position. I wouldn’t worry at all about them cannibalizing each other’s stats. The opposite might be true. They instead might make for smoother production. That is, if Hill has a huge game, you could reasonably conclude that won’t be a week where Williams goes crazy. And versa visa. When the Patriots put the clamps on Hill in the AFC Championship game, Williams got heavily involved in the passing game, putting up 96 yards and 3 TDs.
Kansas City played 18 games last year. Hill played in all of those. For Williams, sub in Kareem Hunt for the first 11 games, using Williams for the rest. In only one game (at N.E.) did Hill and KC’s starting running back put up huge numbers. And in only one game did they both put up bottom-5 numbers. More commonly, when one was down the other was up.
| POINTS FOR KC'S HILL-RB COMBO | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opp | Result | Hill | Top RB | PPR |
| at LAC | W 38-28 | 53.3 | 4.9 | 58.2 |
| at Pit. | W 42-37 | 21.0 | 15.0 | 36.0 |
| S.F. | W 38-27 | 5.6 | 16.4 | 22.0 |
| at Den. | W 27-23 | 5.6 | 26.5 | 32.1 |
| Jac. | W 30-14 | 8.7 | 16.4 | 25.1 |
| at N.E. | L 40-43 | 50.2 | 29.5 | 79.7 |
| Cin. | W 45-10 | 19.6 | 37.1 | 56.7 |
| Den. | W 30-23 | 7.0 | 19.6 | 26.6 |
| at Cle. | W 37-21 | 8.5 | 33.1 | 41.6 |
| Ariz. | W 26-14 | 37.7 | 11.6 | 49.3 |
| at LAR | L 51-54 | 45.5 | 20.1 | 65.6 |
| at Oak. | W 40-33 | 5.0 | 6.5 | 11.5 |
| Balt. | W 27-24 | 14.5 | 19.0 | 33.5 |
| LAC | L 28-29 | 4.1 | 30.3 | 34.4 |
| at Sea. | L 31-38 | 9.1 | 27.0 | 36.1 |
| Oak. | W 35-3 | 35.6 | 12.9 | 48.5 |
| Ind. | W 31-13 | 24.8 | 26.4 | 51.2 |
| N.E. | L 31-37 | 4.2 | 32.6 | 36.8 |
Question 3
My biggest concern at this time is Todd Gurley. You have him ranked in the top 10 RBs and I think that might be too high. All I can think of when I see his rankings is the Rams claimed nothing was wrong with him at the end of the season and playoffs and he did nothing. My gut tells me to drop him from my dynasty league and draft a RB below his ranking like Carson, Mixon or Damien Williams.
Ben Hogevoll (Siletz, OR)
I have been ducking Gurley in drafts. My preference is to have somebody else take on that gamble. I’m just completing an auction with the Fanex group. This is a PPR league, and I had Gurley slotted as being worth $33 of the $200 cap. He went for $27, and I wasn’t interested in getting involved at that price. Your situation is more problematic because you’re already holding Gurley in a dynasty league. If we’re starting from scratch, I would select Mixon earlier for sure. Carson, I think, also comes with issues (he’s not going to catch many passes, and I think he’ll share time more this year). For 2019, I think Williams will be more productive, but he’s not a young back – he’s 27.
Question 4
I'm in quick need of your help as my 2 leagues have allowed us to pick our draft spots in Round 1 this year and I know some years RBs really drop off after the first 2-5 or maybe from a 2nd group to a 3rd. Please advise if your early work shows any of that for 2019.
Rich Hornstein (Huntington Beach, CA)
I don’t see a lot of difference between the top 4 running backs – Barkley, Elliott, McCaffrey, Kamara. I would be inclined to take the No. 4 draft slot. Then you’ll be getting one out of that group, and you’d get to pick in the second round before the other three. Picking 21st in the second round (rather than 22nd, 23rd or 24th) might end up being huge. Maybe one of the elite wide receivers falls to that spot, or maybe you get a shot at Travis Kelce.
Question 5
My question this week is regarding Kyler Murray, you have him outside of the top 20 at his position whereas the other industry experts that I have a high regard for currently have him from 8th to 13th. Obviously I know he has not done anything at this level, and yes the struggles in AZ along the offensive line are well documented. At the same time though that O-line has been reshuffled, plus what the kid has shown in college is very impressive, not to mention the Kingsbury offense is so similar to what he is used to running, and his equal ability to run and throw effectively is as you know an amazing asset in fantasy, plus no-one at his position has a higher ceiling, and I mean nobody. If anything I honestly think 8 to 13th might be too low. So please Ian do tell how you can justify having him outside the top 20, surely your gut is telling you he will finish higher, no?
Jay Harding (OREGON CITY, OR)
I would like draft Murray as a second quarterback – a high-upside wild card. But the price tag won’t make that possible. I understand the appeal. Fantasy scoring systems tend to favor running quarterbacks. But how are we getting to the point where we’re putting Murray ahead of guys like Brees, Roethlisberger, Rivers, Wentz, Wilson and Brady? Let me see him on the field in a practice game. Right now, I’m not at the point where I’m even considering selecting Murray before those kind of guys.
Question 6
Is it worth the gamble to go after Baltimore's running backs? There seems to be a good chance for a lot of rushing TDs and yards from that team, but who knows how it will be spread between Lamar Jackson and the half dozen or so RBs they have on their roster. I don't understand why they would want to pay so much to bring in Mark Ingram when they already have a number of younger backs (Edwards, Hill, Dixon, etc.) that are accustomed to being role players. Clearly, like I thought last year with Alex Collins, there's not going to be one guy getting a lot of scoring opportunities when they're fine with someone like Javorius Allen poaching the short yardage TDs.
Drew Paterson (Ferndale, WA)
I’ve done a few drafts. I have not yet selected a Baltimore running back. I am not a Mark Ingram fan. We’ll see how it plays out, but I’m not confident he’s going to be a big upgrade over Gus Edwards. I think they’ll both play. Kenneth Dixon could carve out of a role. Justice Hill might also play. With Lamar Jackson at quarterback, I don’t think any of them will be big factors as pass catchers. In every drafted I’ve been in so far, Ingram has been selected a lot earlier than I would even started thinking about him.
Question 7
You are clearly concerned about Todd Gurley's production and health, yet you are NOT very high on Darrell Henderson (ranked #57). I can clearly recall how last year you were very high on James Conner (and you nailed that!) What makes these two situations extremely different in your view? Is there a "better" option at RB for the Rams that we just don't know about? Thanks.
Joe Van Koevering (St Petersburg, FL)
With Conner, he had been around for a year. He knew the offense and they were comfortable with him. It was clear in the preseason that he was going to be effective if given a chance to start. It’s different with Henderson. He was super productive at Memphis, running for 3,063 yards his last two years while averaging 8.9 yards per carry. Those are insane numbers. But I can’t say with certainty that he’ll even be the No. 2 back on that team. Malcolm Brown held that role last year, and the Rams liked him enough to match a two-year contract worth $3.3 million that he signed with the Lions. Brown has the considerable advantage of having been there the last four years; his grasp of the offense and pass protections might be a lot better. They also drafted John Kelly a year ago. Just a sixth-round pick, but he might have gone a couple rounds earlier if he didn’t have a marijuana charge hanging over him at the time of the draft. Kelly ran for more yards and averaged more yards per carry when he was sharing time with Alvin Kamara at Tennessee in 2017. He’s got talent and popped a couple of runs in the preseason last year. Now that he’s had a year to better learn the offense and what the pro game is all about, I consider him to also be a viable contender for that backup job. Maybe Henderson is a lot better than these other guys. Let’s see what he looks like in the preseason. But for now, I’m seeing Henderson picked long before I would even be considering him.
Question 8
In a PPR league where passing TDs score 6 points, which round would you pick a QB and/or should you pick Mahomes with you first pick?
Jim Furry (Myrtle Beach, SC)
Such a rule makes quarterbacks more valuable, but you’re still working against the dynamic that there are a lot of good quarterback options out there. So my preference would be to select running backs and wide receivers in the first two rounds. With Mahomes in the mix for 40-plus touchdowns, I would have him as a late first-round pick – the #13 player on my board. I would have two other quarterbacks in contention to be picked around 30th (Andrew Luck, Matt Ryan).
Question 9
Auction draft advice. I’m in a new 3 player keeper ppr auction league and was wondering if there are any advantages to exploit or things to avoid. With the ability to keep three the following year should I be looking for specific players to target?
Jason Howes (Stewartville , MN)
Keep in mind, you won’t necessarily keep your best players. You’ll be keeping the players most likely to outperform their contracts. Saquon Barkley, Alvin Kamara, Christian McCaffrey and Ezekiel Elliott probably will land the four biggest contracts, but if they’re signed for 40-plus percent of the cap, there will be no value in protecting them – you might be able to cut them loose next year and sign them loose. What you’re trying to do is land some lesser players at modest contracts who’ll elevate into much larger roles next season. N’Keal Harry, Deebo Samuel, A.J. Brown and Mecole Hardman probably won’t be big factors this year, but they could be very good in 2020.
Question 10
I drafted James Conner in the 10th round last year based on a gut feeling; maybe a little early but it sure paid off. I was wondering if you ever make picks that seem 'early' (that the data and rankings don't justify) but your gut tells you to grab them now? And are there any players that you have filed away to pounce when your gut tells you to, despite maybe being a little early?
Scott Anderson (Lakewood, CO)
I try to put numbers to everything. That creates a player order at each position – a rough draft if you will. But the decision making on a lot of these situations is too complex to be expressed purely numerically. Numbers are influenced by durability, probability of winning camp battles and potential to maybe hit it big. So at some point, it’s reasonable to move to more of a gut feel approach. The rankings can serve as a very good guide, but there are definitely guys that I tend to like more than others with similar numbers on them. For me, Geronimo Allison is one of those guys. The numbers suggest he should be drafted in the mid-40s, but he’s a guy I tend to be selecting before some of the guys ranked higher.
Question 11
What are your thoughts on upside within the band of young WR2s on their NFL teams going in rounds 5-7... Godwin, Ridley, Boyd, Fuller, Samuel, Kirk? Who is most likely to finish the season as a fantasy WR1?
Timothy Lynch (Chicago, IL)
I was looking at my rankings the other day, comparing them with the ADP data. At wide receiver, Godwin, Boyd and Samuel were among receivers that I have ranked a lot higher than where they’re going in drafts. I expect those guys will wind up on plenty of my teams.
Question 12
You have watched every preseason game for the last 30 years. You have talked about how this used to be a huge challenge back in the day. Your commitment put you ahead of the competition in making those adjustments to your up-to-date cheat sheets. As time goes by, we see that NFL head coaches ‘use’ the preseason differently than before. They rest players more ... even fringe starters. This will occasionally give false impressions (for fantasy purposes). “Player B is getting more looks and has passed Player A.” They try things in the preseason, or focus on targeting players, in the preseason, giving false impressions. Do you agree that things have changed? And how does that effect how you approach the task of making those cheat sheet adjustments?
MATT SHEDOR (Algonquin, IL)
There are some coaches who pretty much blow off the preseason, with Sean McVay leading the way. He seems to operate under the belief that it’s simply too dangerous – that the risk of injury outweighs any benefit of putting them on the field for practice games. Better to simply do that work during the controlled climate of a regular practice. And it seems like all teams agree nowadays that starters and key backups shouldn’t be put on the field for the final preseason game. They also tend to play very little in the first exhibition. For most teams, the meaningful action tends to occur in the second and third games. Unless a player looks unusually good or unusually bad, it’s typically hard to draw definitive conclusions. Often times, I’ll focus more on when players are on the field, rather than how successful they are. When James Washington caught 5 passes for 125 yards and 2 TDs at Green Bay last year, for example, all of that production came in the second half, after the starters were gone. When you’ve got two guys competing for a job, I like to take note of who’s working with the starters. Are they alternating series? Or does one of the players get the entire first half, with the competition coming in to work with the backups?
Question 13
Our league celebrates 30 years in 2019, and for the first time we’ve added PPR scoring - but it’s only half a point. The 1/2 PPR certainly will increase the values of guys like Julian Edelman who catch a ton of passes but don’t find the end zone much. But I’m also wary of overvaluing those players because 1/2 PPR obviously won’t have the same impact as a full point. I’ll use the custom rankings when I draft, but I’m also interested in some of your thoughts on what to keep in mind as we move to 1/2 PPR.
Paul Owers (Lake Worth, FL)
I have played in many PPR leagues. I haven’t tried half-PPR yet, but I assume some of the same principles apply. You should be wary of running backs who don’t catch passes; those guys are always facing an uphill climb. Make sure you look at the numbers carefully, because guys like James White and Tarik Cohen are wildly undervalued in the PPR systems. And with the pass catchers, it’s nice to put together a nice group of guys who’ll catch 80-90 balls each. I tend to focus more on the pass catchers, rather than on the hit-or-miss deep threats like DeSean Jackson.
Question 14
I am in a keeper league that allows you to keep two players from your current roster. It is a half-point PPR league. My options are the following: Tyler Boyd (16th round), Gus Edwards (16th round), Austin Ekeler (9th round), Hunter Henry (16th round), Kareem Hunt (8th round), Carson Wentz (12th round), James White (6th round). My initial thoughts were to keep Kareem Hunt hoping that he can dominate not this year but the year after since I have keeper rights to him for one more year. My second pick would either be Tyler Boyd or Hunter Henry but not sure between the two. Anyway would love your thoughts on the two players I should keep.
Chris Clay (Los Angeles, CA)
I would keep Boyd and Henry. They should both be reliable productive players. If you were starting from scratch, both would be picked in the overall top 70, I think. And you’ve got them both at the bargain-basement price tag of a 16th-round pick. I think that trumps the hope that Hunt will turn into a top-10 back next year. Hunt is signed to a one-year deal, but he’s only been in the league for two seasons. He’ll be a restricted free agent next year, so the Browns will be able to control where he goes. Who knows how things will shake out with injuries and trades, but most likely he’ll be sharing time with Nick Chubb in 2020.
Question 15
Does Fantasy Index provide rankings for Best Ball leagues?
Todd Faulds (Coral Springs, FL)
I hadn’t thought of it. They would be similar to the regular rankings. In best-ball leagues, some subscribe to the theory that it’s best to target streaky players. You draft a guy like DeSean Jackson, figuring that he’ll hit on long touchdowns a few times, helping you in those weeks. I tend to slightly prioritize durable players who can be counted on to play in all 16 games. With best ball, it often turns into a battle of attrition.
Question 16
Love the magazine and especially the auction values! I do think I have a leg up in my league thanks to FI. I’m going “Stars and Scrubs” in a deep league with sharp players. This means I can make identify good waiver values quickly and cut $1 scrubs without remorse, but also make bets on undervalued players shining. Who are some draft-bubble players where week 1 will likely show their value (good or not) right away?
David Fetterman (Kirkland, WA)
There’s a lot of key battles going on around the league. Many (perhaps most) will be settled and well known before the season starts. Some might not become apparent until after those first games. Among the most prominent are: Starting tailback in San Francisco (Breida/McKinnon/Coleman). The 2nd-best receiver in Pittsburgh (Washington/Moncrief). Is Ted Ginn still starting in New Orleans (or are they shifting to TreQuan Smith)? Starting receiver in Green Bay (Geronimo Allison, I think). Featured receiver in Denver (Emmanuel Sanders in Denver, if his body holds up). Pecking order for receivers in Arizona. Second starting receiver in Indianapolis (Campbell or Funchess or time-share).
Question 17
Outside of the top # 2 WRs like Diggs, Ridley and Boyd which # 2 WR has best chance of making top 20 in PPR league?
Bob McKinlay (Casselberry, FL)
The Rams have three receivers – Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp and Brandin Cooks – and all potentially could put up top-20 numbers. I would put Chris Godwin at the top of my No. 2 list; he should catch a ton of balls. Others include Mike Williams, Curtis Samuel, Sammy Watkins and Keke Coutee.
Question 18
Can you suggest the best method for me to set up my Fantasy Football Custom Cheat Sheet? In my league, two wide receivers, and a tight end must be played. Both positions have the same scoring values. Would it be best to setup my Cheat Sheet to combine tight ends and wide receivers? Any suggestions would be greatly appreciated as this will certainly help me in my upcoming draft.
Jim Polli (Quakertown, PA)
Use the “auction values” section in the league setup. This is inside the area where you plug in your scoring rules. There’s a box to check that asks if you use auction values. Check yes on that one (even though you’ll be drafting rather than auctioning players). Once you get inside that area, there are parameters you can adjust. You’ve got 10 teams. They all have to draft tight ends and wide receivers, so the positions are separate. How many tight ends were selected last year? (Probably two per team, but you would know better than I.) If you’re drafting 20 tight ends, put in the auction setup area that you expect 6-7 to go for the $1 minimum in the auction. So 13-14 will go for more than the minimum, and their value won’t be determined by their production, but instead by how much better they are than those $1.00 tight ends. The approach is similar at wide receiver. Perhaps 50 will be selected, and you could tag perhaps 35 of them as being worth more than $1.00 minimum. Follow this process at each position, and the resulting auction values will stack your overall board.
Question 19
12 team PPR. I can keep one player 3 rounds earlier than drafted the previous season. My only real options for keeper are James White in the 3rd, Matt Ryan in the 6th and Marlon Mack in the 7th. Looking at the customized cheat sheet for my league, White is the #9 RB and #17 overall player, Ryan is the #2 QB and #18 overall, while Mack is #25 RB and #69 overall. It seems like a no-brainer to keep Ryan. However, bear in mind I drafted Roethlisberger in Rd 8 and Ryan in Rd 9 last year. What are your thoughts?
Eric Goetz (Shoreline, WA)
Sounds good to me. I would think those are the three guys to keep. You’re not knocking it out of the park with any of them, but they’ll be better than what you would otherwise choose if you instead kept those draft picks.