I drafted N'Keal Harry (pictured; I have no idea why he's wearing No. 50, which he won't be allowed to wear in games) early in a rookie draft this year, but not with great enthusiasm. The Patriots haven't had a lot of success drafting wideouts over the years, and a lot of players at the position taken at the end of the first round this century haven't turned out particularly well. At all.
I pulled out the numbers for all wide receivers drafted late in the first round -- I chose picks 20-32, or 31 for a couple of those years -- since 2000. Shown are their rookie year receiving numbers, and not surprisingly those haven't been great. One 1,000-yard guy, and just five even making it to 800 yards.
| LATE FIRST-ROUND WRS (PICKS 20-UP), 2000-PRESENT | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Pk | Player | No | Yds | TD |
| 2014 | 28 | Kelvin Benjamin, Car. | 73 | 1008 | 9 |
| 2007 | 23 | Dwayne Bowe, K.C. | 70 | 995 | 5 |
| 2006 | 25 | Santonio Holmes, Pitt. | 49 | 824 | 3 |
| 2018 | 26 | Calvin Ridley, Atl. | 64 | 821 | 10 |
| 2013 | 27 | DeAndre Hopkins, Hou. | 52 | 802 | 2 |
| 2009 | 22 | Percy Harvin, Minn. | 60 | 790 | 8 |
| 2009 | 29 | Hakeem Nicks, NYG | 47 | 790 | 6 |
| 2018 | 24 | D.J. Moore, Car. | 55 | 788 | 2 |
| 2009 | 30 | Kenny Britt, Tenn. | 42 | 701 | 3 |
| 2000 | 21 | Sylvester Morris, K.C. | 48 | 678 | 3 |
| 2016 | 21 | Will Fuller, Hou. | 47 | 635 | 3 |
| 2012 | 20 | Kendall Wright, Tenn. | 64 | 626 | 4 |
| 2007 | 32 | Anthony Gonzalez, Ind. | 37 | 576 | 3 |
| 2010 | 24 | Dez Bryant, Dall. | 45 | 561 | 8 |
| 2014 | 20 | Brandin Cooks, N.O. | 53 | 550 | 4 |
| 2005 | 22 | Mark Clayton, Balt. | 44 | 471 | 3 |
| 2013 | 29 | Cordarrelle Patterson, Minn. | 45 | 469 | 9 |
| 2005 | 27 | Roddy White, Atl. | 29 | 446 | 3 |
| 2005 | 21 | Matt Jones, Jac. | 36 | 432 | 5 |
| 2001 | 30 | Reggie Wayne, Ind. | 27 | 345 | 0 |
| 2002 | 20 | Javon Walker, G.B. | 23 | 319 | 1 |
| 2015 | 20 | Nelson Agholor, Phil. | 23 | 283 | 1 |
| 2010 | 22 | Demaryius Thomas, Den. | 22 | 283 | 2 |
| 2001 | 25 | Freddie Mitchell, Phil. | 21 | 283 | 1 |
| 2011 | 26 | Jon Baldwin, K.C. | 21 | 254 | 1 |
| 2015 | 29 | Phillip Dorsett, Ind. | 18 | 225 | 1 |
| 2007 | 30 | Craig Davis, S.D. | 20 | 188 | 1 |
| 2004 | 31 | Rashaun Woods, S.F. | 7 | 160 | 1 |
| 2000 | 29 | R. Jay Soward, Jac. | 14 | 154 | 1 |
| 2004 | 29 | Michael Jenkins, Atl. | 7 | 119 | 0 |
| 2016 | 22 | Josh Doctson, Wash. | 2 | 66 | 0 |
| 2016 | 23 | Laquon Treadwell, Minn. | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| 2015 | 26 | Breshad Perriman, Balt. | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2007 | 27 | Robert Meachem, N.O. | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2012 | 30 | A.J. Jenkins, S.F. | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2019 | 25 | Marquise Brown, Balt. | ? | ? | ? |
| 2019 | 32 | N'Keal Harry, N.E. | ? | ? | ? |
But forgetting rookie numbers alone, which are often poor for rookie receivers, what about their careers? How many of the guys on this list would be drafted in the first round again? Those are the players I listed in bold in the table.
I count 12 out of 35, which is about 35 percent, and I think I'm being reasonable. I decided to sign off early on Calvin Ridley and D.J. Moore, and I included some guys who had a couple or three good seasons but not superstars (Bowe, Nicks, Harvin). No on Kenny Britt. Will Fuller was another tough one -- talented guy, but can he put together a healthy season at some point? He's missed 17 of 32 games over the last two seasons.
What I thought was especially interesting was that nearly all the guys who hit put up solid numbers as rookies. Of my 11, six had at least 790 receiving yards in their first seasons. Only three (Roddy White, Reggie Wayne and Demaryius Thomas) were under 500. Which says to me that if Harry and Baltimore's Marquise Brown are going to be successful pros, they'll likely need to put up decent numbers right out of the gate. The guys who didn't generally fizzled out.
New England has a lot of targets to replace (Rob Gronkowski, Chris Hogan, perhaps Josh Gordon), but there's an outside chance Gordon is able to play, and the Patriots will still send the majority of passes to short-range options like Julian Edelman and James White, plus whoever they wind up with at tight end (maybe Benjamin Watson, post-four-game suspension).
At 6-foot-2 and 228 pounds, Harry is a big, friendly target who put up strong numbers at Arizona State: 73-plus catches, 8-9 TDs and over 1,000 yards in each of the last two years. He's good at making contested grabs, though that hasn't really been the way the Patriots offense works; it moves guys around to get somebody wide open, giving Tom Brady some easy looks. I'm hopeful, but not optimistic, that Harry will have a good rookie season.
--Andy Richardson