Kansas City and New Orleans should have the highest-scoring offense, but they also look like two of the teams that will decline the most relative to what they did last year. That’s what I see when I compare our current projections to how offenses performed in 2018.
Mostly, it’s about the difficulty of repeating an awesome year. Kansas City and New Orleans scored 66 and 59 touchdowns last year; those are awesome years. So when they’re forecasted for 53 and 52 touchdowns (all other offenses are under 49), it represents two of the largest fallers relative to what happened last year.
Tampa Bay (dropping from 47 to 37 touchdowns) and Pittsburgh (declining from 51 to under 44) are the two other big fallers.
The four offenses that look most improved, not surprisingly, are all teams that struggled last year. Buffalo, Oakland, Arizona and Jacksonville all scored only 22-28 touchdowns last year. All of those offenses are still in my bottom 10, but I’ve got them scoring 7-11 more touchdowns this year.
Here’s my 1 thru 32 look at the offenses, based on how many touchdowns each will score (run and pass TDs only – no returns, and no defensive touchdowns). The four most improved offenses are in bold, while the four biggest decliners are tagged with black dots.
OFFENSIVE TOUCHDOWNS | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Team | TDP | TDR | Total | 2018 |
• Kansas City | 39.2 | 14.1 | 53.3 | 50-16-66 |
• New Orleans | 32.8 | 19.4 | 52.2 | 33-26-59 |
LA Rams | 31.7 | 17.1 | 48.8 | 32-23-55 |
Atlanta | 34.7 | 13.8 | 48.5 | 36-11-47 |
Indianapolis | 34.4 | 13.1 | 47.5 | 39-13-52 |
New England | 28.2 | 18.9 | 47.0 | 29-18-47 |
Philadelphia | 33.6 | 13.0 | 46.6 | 29-12-41 |
Seattle | 30.9 | 15.0 | 45.9 | 35-15-50 |
Cleveland | 31.6 | 13.9 | 45.5 | 29-15-44 |
• Pittsburgh | 29.8 | 13.8 | 43.5 | 35-16-51 |
Green Bay | 30.7 | 12.6 | 43.4 | 25-14-39 |
Houston | 31.2 | 11.7 | 42.9 | 26-12-38 |
LA Chargers | 29.9 | 12.5 | 42.4 | 32-16-48 |
Minnesota | 29.1 | 13.1 | 42.2 | 30-9-39 |
Carolina | 25.9 | 14.7 | 40.6 | 28-17-45 |
Chicago | 24.5 | 14.4 | 38.9 | 28-16-44 |
Dallas | 22.9 | 16.0 | 38.9 | 22-13-35 |
• Tampa Bay | 28.3 | 9.1 | 37.4 | 36-11-47 |
NY Giants | 20.8 | 15.7 | 36.5 | 23-13-36 |
Tennessee | 20.3 | 15.7 | 36.0 | 16-15-31 |
San Francisco | 25.1 | 10.4 | 35.5 | 26-7-33 |
NY Jets | 24.2 | 11.4 | 35.5 | 18-11-29 |
Detroit | 23.8 | 11.4 | 35.2 | 22-11-33 |
Buffalo | 18.2 | 16.8 | 35.0 | 13-15-28 |
Oakland | 23.7 | 11.4 | 35.0 | 19-9-28 |
Baltimore | 15.7 | 19.2 | 34.9 | 18-19-37 |
Arizona | 22.2 | 12.3 | 34.6 | 15-9-24 |
Jacksonville | 20.8 | 12.6 | 33.4 | 15-7-22 |
Cincinnati | 22.2 | 11.2 | 33.4 | 27-13-40 |
Denver | 18.9 | 13.6 | 32.5 | 19-18-37 |
Washington | 18.2 | 11.8 | 30.1 | 16-12-28 |
Miami | 19.5 | 8.5 | 28.0 | 26-7-33 |
If we look only at passing, three of the four offenses that should decline the most are clubs that put up big numbers last year – Kansas City, Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay. The other (Baltimore) has switched to a much more run-oriented system when compared to the first nine games last year.
The Jets, Cardinals, Jaguars and Titans seem to have the most improved passing games, and those are all offenses that struggled last year.
On the chart below, you’re looking at per-game numbers. The “points” are fantasy points, assuming 1 point for every 10 yards and 6 for each TD pass.
PASSING PRODUCTION | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Team | Yards | TDP | Points | 2018 |
• Kansas City | 300 | 2.45 | 44.7 | 320-3.12-50.7 |
Atlanta | 302 | 2.17 | 43.2 | 309-2.25-44.4 |
Indianapolis | 278 | 2.15 | 40.7 | 287-2.43-43.3 |
LA Rams | 280 | 1.98 | 39.9 | 295-2.00-41.5 |
• Pittsburgh | 287 | 1.86 | 39.9 | 323-2.18-45.4 |
Cleveland | 277 | 1.98 | 39.6 | 266-1.81-37.4 |
New Orleans | 272 | 2.05 | 39.5 | 260-2.06-38.3 |
Philadelphia | 268 | 2.10 | 39.4 | 282-1.81-39.0 |
Green Bay | 272 | 1.92 | 38.7 | 289-1.56-38.2 |
• Tampa Bay | 280 | 1.77 | 38.6 | 334-2.25-46.9 |
Houston | 267 | 1.95 | 38.4 | 260-1.62-35.7 |
LA Chargers | 270 | 1.87 | 38.2 | 269-2.00-38.9 |
New England | 270 | 1.76 | 37.6 | 275-1.81-38.3 |
Minnesota | 260 | 1.82 | 36.9 | 268-1.87-38.0 |
San Francisco | 270 | 1.57 | 36.4 | 265-1.62-36.2 |
Seattle | 233 | 1.93 | 34.9 | 215-2.18-34.6 |
Oakland | 255 | 1.48 | 34.4 | 253-1.18-32.4 |
Carolina | 243 | 1.62 | 34.0 | 254-1.75-35.9 |
Detroit | 248 | 1.49 | 33.7 | 240-1.37-32.2 |
NY Jets | 245 | 1.51 | 33.6 | 212-1.12-27.9 |
Chicago | 238 | 1.53 | 33.0 | 234-1.75-33.9 |
Dallas | 242 | 1.43 | 32.8 | 242-1.37-32.4 |
Arizona | 242 | 1.39 | 32.5 | 180-.93-23.6 |
Cincinnati | 233 | 1.39 | 31.6 | 223-1.68-32.4 |
NY Giants | 235 | 1.30 | 31.3 | 275-1.43-36.1 |
Jacksonville | 235 | 1.30 | 31.3 | 214-.93-27.0 |
Denver | 235 | 1.18 | 30.6 | 245-1.18-31.6 |
Tennessee | 228 | 1.27 | 30.4 | 203-1.00-26.3 |
Washington | 222 | 1.14 | 29.0 | 205-1.00-26.5 |
Miami | 215 | 1.22 | 28.8 | 206-1.62-30.3 |
Buffalo | 210 | 1.14 | 27.8 | 192-.81-24.0 |
• Baltimore | 183 | .98 | 24.2 | 231-1.12-29.8 |
With rushing, two of the four most improved offenses are teams that switched their approach dramatically halfway through last year – Ravens and Giants. They’re joined by Minnesota and Arizona. The Cardinals, then, are the only team that shows up as being one of the four most improved in all three categories.
For rushing production, the Saints, Rams, Broncos and Chargers look like the offenses most likely to dip the most.
Scoring based on 6 points for rushing touchdowns and 1 for every 10 yards. These are team totals, so rushing production includes stats generated by quarterbacks and wide receivers.
RUSHING PRODUCTION | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Team | Yards | TDR | Points | 2018 |
Baltimore | 190 | 1.20 | 26.2 | 152-1.18-22.3 |
Seattle | 148 | .94 | 20.4 | 160-.93-21.6 |
New England | 127 | 1.18 | 19.8 | 127-1.12-19.4 |
• New Orleans | 119 | 1.21 | 19.2 | 126-1.62-22.3 |
Buffalo | 125 | 1.05 | 18.8 | 124-.93-18.0 |
Dallas | 125 | 1.00 | 18.5 | 122-.81-17.0 |
• LA Rams | 120 | 1.07 | 18.4 | 139-1.43-22.5 |
NY Giants | 120 | .98 | 17.9 | 103-.81-15.1 |
Tennessee | 118 | .98 | 17.7 | 126-.93-18.2 |
Carolina | 121 | .92 | 17.6 | 133-1.06-19.6 |
Chicago | 122 | .90 | 17.6 | 121-1.00-18.1 |
Philadelphia | 119 | .81 | 16.8 | 98-.75-14.3 |
Houston | 120 | .73 | 16.4 | 126-.75-17.1 |
Minnesota | 114 | .82 | 16.3 | 93-.56-12.6 |
Kansas City | 110 | .88 | 16.3 | 115-1.00-17.5 |
Cleveland | 110 | .87 | 16.2 | 118-.93-17.4 |
• Denver | 110 | .85 | 16.1 | 119-1.12-18.6 |
Green Bay | 112 | .79 | 15.9 | 104-.87-15.6 |
Indianapolis | 109 | .82 | 15.8 | 107-.81-15.5 |
Atlanta | 103 | .86 | 15.5 | 98-.68-13.9 |
Pittsburgh | 103 | .86 | 15.5 | 90-1.00-15.0 |
Arizona | 108 | .77 | 15.4 | 83-.56-11.6 |
• LA Chargers | 106 | .78 | 15.3 | 117-1.00-17.7 |
Washington | 106 | .74 | 15.0 | 110-.75-15.5 |
San Francisco | 111 | .65 | 15.0 | 118-.43-14.4 |
Oakland | 105 | .71 | 14.8 | 101-.56-13.4 |
NY Jets | 105 | .71 | 14.8 | 101-.68-14.2 |
Detroit | 105 | .71 | 14.8 | 103-.68-14.4 |
Cincinnati | 105 | .70 | 14.7 | 105-.81-15.3 |
Jacksonville | 98 | .79 | 14.5 | 107-.43-13.3 |
Tampa Bay | 100 | .57 | 13.4 | 95-.68-13.6 |
Miami | 95 | .53 | 12.7 | 108-.43-13.4 |
—Ian Allan