The revised individual player rankings went out this morning. Now let’s take a step back and look at the team numbers that are tied to those projections. Part of fantasy football involves settling on a general sense of how the teams stack up (1 thru 32) in the notable categories.
To me, Kansas City and New Orleans look like the offenses most likely to possibly separate from the pack, maybe reaching 55-plus touchdowns. I’ve got four other offenses averaging about 3 TDs per week – Rams, Falcons, Patriots, Eagles.
I’m comfortable with Miami and Washington as the league’s worst offenses. I have them over 3 TDs behind all of the other teams. The way these seasons tend to play out, I suppose I should have a few other touchdowns projected to finish below 32 TDs, so I will have to think about the Bengals, Titans and Broncos. Tennessee has looked pretty awful
Andrew Luck may have retired, but I’m not pulling the plug on the Colts. I think coaching is important, and Indianapolis is about as good as anyone in that department. So I’ve got Indianapolis at 39 touchdowns, right in the middle of the pack.
TEAM PROJECTION; OFFENSIVE TOUCHDOWNS | |||
---|---|---|---|
Team | Pass | Run | Total |
Kansas City | 39.5 | 14.1 | 53.6 |
New Orleans | 32.5 | 20.0 | 52.5 |
LA Rams | 31.7 | 16.8 | 48.5 |
Atlanta | 34.4 | 13.6 | 48.0 |
New England | 28.5 | 19.2 | 47.7 |
Philadelphia | 33.9 | 13.0 | 46.9 |
Seattle | 30.9 | 15.2 | 46.1 |
Cleveland | 31.5 | 13.4 | 45.0 |
Pittsburgh | 30.1 | 14.1 | 44.2 |
Green Bay | 30.7 | 12.6 | 43.4 |
LA Chargers | 29.9 | 12.5 | 42.4 |
Houston | 31.2 | 11.2 | 42.4 |
Minnesota | 28.8 | 13.3 | 42.1 |
Carolina | 25.6 | 14.4 | 40.0 |
Chicago | 24.6 | 14.9 | 39.5 |
Indianapolis | 25.9 | 13.1 | 39.0 |
Dallas | 23.2 | 15.7 | 38.9 |
NY Giants | 20.8 | 15.7 | 36.5 |
Tampa Bay | 28.0 | 8.5 | 36.5 |
San Francisco | 24.8 | 10.6 | 35.4 |
Detroit | 24.0 | 11.0 | 35.0 |
NY Jets | 23.8 | 11.2 | 35.0 |
Oakland | 23.7 | 11.4 | 35.0 |
Baltimore | 15.5 | 19.4 | 34.9 |
Arizona | 22.6 | 12.2 | 34.7 |
Jacksonville | 21.6 | 13.0 | 34.6 |
Buffalo | 16.8 | 16.8 | 33.6 |
Cincinnati | 22.2 | 11.2 | 33.4 |
Tennessee | 18.4 | 14.7 | 33.1 |
Denver | 19.4 | 13.6 | 33.0 |
Washington | 18.2 | 12.0 | 30.2 |
Miami | 19.2 | 8.0 | 27.2 |
For passing production (6 points for TDs, 1 for every 10 yards) I’m very comfortable with my top 5, headlined by Kansas City and Atlanta. I’m in more confident with the bottom 5. Baltimore and Buffalo look like lead-pipe locks to finish near the bottom, and toss in Miami, Washington and Tennessee, and I think there’s some chance of going 5 for 5 with the league’s worst passing offenses.
TEAM PROJECTION; PASSING | |||
---|---|---|---|
Team | Yards | TDR | Points |
Kansas City | 300 | 2.47 | 44.8 |
Atlanta | 298 | 2.15 | 42.7 |
Pittsburgh | 290 | 1.88 | 40.3 |
LA Rams | 280 | 1.98 | 39.9 |
Philadelphia | 268 | 2.12 | 39.5 |
New Orleans | 272 | 2.03 | 39.4 |
Cleveland | 275 | 1.97 | 39.3 |
Green Bay | 272 | 1.92 | 38.7 |
LA Chargers | 270 | 1.87 | 38.2 |
Houston | 265 | 1.95 | 38.2 |
Tampa Bay | 275 | 1.75 | 38.0 |
New England | 270 | 1.78 | 37.7 |
Minnesota | 255 | 1.80 | 36.3 |
San Francisco | 265 | 1.55 | 35.8 |
Indianapolis | 260 | 1.62 | 35.7 |
Seattle | 228 | 1.93 | 34.4 |
Oakland | 255 | 1.48 | 34.4 |
Carolina | 243 | 1.60 | 33.9 |
Detroit | 248 | 1.50 | 33.8 |
Dallas | 245 | 1.45 | 33.2 |
Arizona | 246 | 1.41 | 33.1 |
Chicago | 238 | 1.54 | 33.0 |
NY Jets | 240 | 1.49 | 32.9 |
Cincinnati | 233 | 1.39 | 31.6 |
NY Giants | 235 | 1.30 | 31.3 |
Jacksonville | 230 | 1.35 | 31.1 |
Denver | 235 | 1.21 | 30.8 |
Washington | 222 | 1.14 | 29.0 |
Miami | 215 | 1.20 | 28.7 |
Tennessee | 215 | 1.15 | 28.4 |
Buffalo | 200 | 1.05 | 26.3 |
Baltimore | 184 | .97 | 24.2 |
With how they play and how their rosters are constructed, Baltimore and Seattle should finish with the league’s best rushing numbers. That’s no surprise, given how those teams played in the second half of last year. New England and New Orleans also have had some success grinding things out in the past – good teams that should score plenty of rushing touchdowns.
Miami and Tampa Bay, I think, look pretty solid choices to finish with two of the league’s worst rushing offenses.
TEAM PROJECTION; RUSHING | |||
---|---|---|---|
Team | Yards | TDR | Points |
Baltimore | 190 | 1.21 | 26.3 |
Seattle | 146 | .95 | 20.3 |
New England | 128 | 1.20 | 20.0 |
New Orleans | 120 | 1.25 | 19.5 |
Buffalo | 130 | 1.05 | 19.3 |
LA Rams | 120 | 1.05 | 18.3 |
Dallas | 123 | .98 | 18.2 |
Chicago | 125 | .93 | 18.1 |
NY Giants | 120 | .98 | 17.9 |
Carolina | 116 | .90 | 17.0 |
Philadelphia | 119 | .81 | 16.8 |
Tennessee | 112 | .92 | 16.7 |
Minnesota | 115 | .83 | 16.5 |
Kansas City | 110 | .88 | 16.3 |
Indianapolis | 112 | .82 | 16.1 |
Cleveland | 110 | .84 | 16.0 |
Green Bay | 112 | .79 | 15.9 |
Denver | 108 | .85 | 15.9 |
Jacksonville | 110 | .81 | 15.9 |
San Francisco | 118 | .66 | 15.8 |
Pittsburgh | 100 | .88 | 15.3 |
LA Chargers | 106 | .78 | 15.3 |
Atlanta | 101 | .85 | 15.2 |
Houston | 110 | .70 | 15.2 |
Washington | 107 | .75 | 15.2 |
Arizona | 106 | .76 | 15.2 |
Cincinnati | 105 | .70 | 14.7 |
NY Jets | 105 | .70 | 14.7 |
Detroit | 105 | .69 | 14.6 |
Oakland | 103 | .71 | 14.6 |
Tampa Bay | 95 | .53 | 12.7 |
Miami | 90 | .50 | 12.0 |
Look these numbers over. If you see something that looks wildly out of whack, let me know and we’ll argue it out.
—Ian Allan