Antonio Brown is headed to Foxboro, and the Super Bowl race just got more interesting. New England was going to be in the hunt anyway, and the addition of a playmaker could be just what they need to edge them past the other prominent contenders.
For fantasy purposes, Tom Brady could be the big winner. A month ago, his receiving corps looked like a liability. Now he’s got Josh Gordon back and Brown, and I think it’s looking a lot more possible that he’ll finish with top-10 quarterbacking numbers.
I have wondered about New England’s short passing game. They’ve got Julian Edelman, but he’s 33 and takes a pounding with his playing style. Now they could possibly have another player who could excel on those short routes in traffic.
With Brown, of course, any discussion must including a weighing of the probability that he’ll even be on the team in November. He wasn’t much for following rules in Pittsburgh and Oakland. While with the Steelers, he famously went on Facebook Live to clown for his followers as Mike Tomlin could be heard in the background telling players to stay off social media.
And Brown will need to learn New England’s system and earn Tom Brady’s trust. Chad Ochocinco, recall, came to this team as a 33-year-old, with many wondering if he’d be another Randy Moss, and couldn’t really adapt to the system at all.
But Brown looked awfully good moving around on Hard Knocks when he was practicing with the Raiders. He’s quick, and he comes up with contested balls. With his abilities, he could play either inside (like Edelman) or more as an outside speed guy, like they’ve used Josh Gordon and Brandin Cooks.
In my eyes, this slightly increases the value of Brady and Stephen Gostkowski. For everyone else on the roster, I would move them down. James White, Edelman, Gordon and others presumably will see fewer targets. And the running game may slip some; the Patriots started relying more on the ground game last year, but with Brown in the fold, it could/should prompt a swing back to more passing.
If I were walking into a draft today, I would make Edelman the first New England wide receiver drafted. I think he’ll catch more passes, given his long and well-developed rapport with Brady. But I would select Brown before Gordon.
For overall production, this move could lift New England back to the top of the offenses. On my current board, I’ve got them higher, but still behind Kansas City and New Orleans. Those are the three offenses I expect will score 50-plus touchdowns this year.
| TEAM OFFENSE PROJECTIONS (touchdowns) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Pass | Run | Total |
| Kansas City | 39.5 | 15.0 | 54.6 |
| New Orleans | 32.0 | 20.3 | 52.3 |
| New England | 31.0 | 18.7 | 49.8 |
| LA Rams | 31.5 | 16.8 | 48.3 |
| Atlanta | 34.4 | 13.6 | 48.0 |
| Philadelphia | 33.9 | 13.0 | 46.9 |
| Seattle | 30.7 | 14.9 | 45.6 |
| Cleveland | 31.4 | 13.1 | 44.5 |
| Pittsburgh | 30.1 | 14.1 | 44.2 |
| Green Bay | 30.9 | 12.6 | 43.5 |
| Houston | 32.0 | 10.7 | 42.7 |
| LA Chargers | 29.9 | 12.3 | 42.2 |
| Minnesota | 28.5 | 13.4 | 41.9 |
| Carolina | 25.6 | 14.4 | 40.0 |
| Chicago | 23.8 | 15.2 | 39.0 |
| Dallas | 23.2 | 15.7 | 38.9 |
| Indianapolis | 25.8 | 13.0 | 38.7 |
| NY Giants | 20.6 | 15.5 | 36.2 |
| Tampa Bay | 27.7 | 8.3 | 36.0 |
| Arizona | 22.9 | 12.3 | 35.2 |
| NY Jets | 24.0 | 11.2 | 35.2 |
| San Francisco | 24.6 | 10.6 | 35.2 |
| Baltimore | 15.5 | 19.5 | 35.0 |
| Detroit | 24.0 | 11.0 | 35.0 |
| Oakland | 23.5 | 11.4 | 34.9 |
| Jacksonville | 21.6 | 13.0 | 34.6 |
| Buffalo | 17.1 | 17.0 | 34.1 |
| Cincinnati | 22.4 | 11.0 | 33.4 |
| Denver | 19.7 | 13.3 | 33.0 |
| Tennessee | 18.1 | 14.9 | 33.0 |
| Washington | 18.1 | 11.4 | 29.4 |
| Miami | 17.6 | 6.4 | 24.0 |
For passing production, I’ve got New England moving up into the No. 4 spot. (This is using 6 points for TD passes and 1 for every 10 yards.)
| TEAM OFFENSE PROJECTIONS (passing) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Yards | TDP | Points |
| Kansas City | 300 | 2.47 | 44.8 |
| Atlanta | 298 | 2.15 | 42.7 |
| Pittsburgh | 290 | 1.88 | 40.3 |
| New England | 285 | 1.94 | 40.1 |
| LA Rams | 278 | 1.97 | 39.6 |
| Philadelphia | 268 | 2.12 | 39.5 |
| Cleveland | 275 | 1.96 | 39.3 |
| Houston | 270 | 2.00 | 39.0 |
| Green Bay | 273 | 1.93 | 38.9 |
| New Orleans | 268 | 2.00 | 38.8 |
| LA Chargers | 270 | 1.87 | 38.2 |
| Tampa Bay | 273 | 1.73 | 37.7 |
| Minnesota | 255 | 1.78 | 36.2 |
| Indianapolis | 263 | 1.61 | 36.0 |
| San Francisco | 265 | 1.54 | 35.7 |
| Seattle | 230 | 1.92 | 34.5 |
| Oakland | 255 | 1.47 | 34.3 |
| Carolina | 243 | 1.60 | 33.9 |
| Detroit | 248 | 1.50 | 33.8 |
| Dallas | 245 | 1.45 | 33.2 |
| Arizona | 245 | 1.43 | 33.1 |
| NY Jets | 240 | 1.50 | 33.0 |
| Chicago | 232 | 1.49 | 32.1 |
| Cincinnati | 235 | 1.40 | 31.9 |
| Jacksonville | 230 | 1.35 | 31.1 |
| NY Giants | 233 | 1.29 | 31.0 |
| Denver | 235 | 1.23 | 30.9 |
| Washington | 217 | 1.13 | 28.5 |
| Tennessee | 212 | 1.13 | 28.0 |
| Miami | 207 | 1.10 | 27.3 |
| Buffalo | 205 | 1.07 | 26.9 |
| Baltimore | 185 | .97 | 24.3 |
For rushing, I have New England moving down slightly. (I think they’re going to pass more). Again, this assumes 6 points for TDs and 1 for every 10 yards.
| TEAM OFFENSE PROJECTIONS (rushing) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Yards | TDR | Points |
| Baltimore | 185 | 1.22 | 25.8 |
| Seattle | 145 | .93 | 20.1 |
| New Orleans | 122 | 1.27 | 19.8 |
| Buffalo | 130 | 1.06 | 19.4 |
| New England | 118 | 1.17 | 18.8 |
| LA Rams | 120 | 1.05 | 18.3 |
| Dallas | 123 | .98 | 18.2 |
| Chicago | 123 | .95 | 18.0 |
| NY Giants | 120 | .97 | 17.8 |
| Tennessee | 115 | .93 | 17.1 |
| Carolina | 116 | .90 | 17.0 |
| Kansas City | 113 | .94 | 16.9 |
| Philadelphia | 119 | .81 | 16.8 |
| Minnesota | 115 | .84 | 16.5 |
| Indianapolis | 112 | .81 | 16.1 |
| San Francisco | 118 | .66 | 15.8 |
| Green Bay | 110 | .79 | 15.7 |
| Cleveland | 108 | .82 | 15.7 |
| Jacksonville | 108 | .81 | 15.7 |
| Denver | 106 | .83 | 15.6 |
| Pittsburgh | 100 | .88 | 15.3 |
| Arizona | 106 | .77 | 15.2 |
| LA Chargers | 106 | .77 | 15.2 |
| Atlanta | 101 | .85 | 15.2 |
| Houston | 110 | .67 | 15.0 |
| Oakland | 105 | .71 | 14.8 |
| NY Jets | 105 | .70 | 14.7 |
| Cincinnati | 105 | .69 | 14.6 |
| Detroit | 105 | .69 | 14.6 |
| Washington | 103 | .71 | 14.6 |
| Tampa Bay | 92 | .52 | 12.3 |
| Miami | 85 | .40 | 10.9 |
—Ian Allan