When I started writing up the preview for Miami’s offense, my initial expectation was that they would certainly project to be this week’s lowest-scoring offense. They’re pretty terrible, after all, while New England’s defense has allowed only 3 points in back-to-back games (the Sunday nighter against the Steelers, and the Super Bowl against the Rams). Then I started looking at the numbers more closely.
The Patriots should win the game comfortably. (I understand they’ve lost five of their last six at this venue, but Miami has really slipped.) And assuming they take a big lead early, that will put the Dolphins in the mode of passing a ton against a defense that historically has been willing to give up some yards.
The Patriots, recall, ranked last in pass defense two years ago, and only 11 teams allowed more passing yards last year. With this being kind of like a preseason game for New England – tuning up and preparing for more meaningful games later in the year – I would think they’d be willing to cede some production to the Dolphins, especially in the second half.
Miami has Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback, and while he has his limitations, he’s had a lot of success against this defense in the past. He’s averaged 290 passing yards and 2 TDs, in fact, in his last 10 games against this defense.
Fitzpatrick has passed for at least 269 yards in seven straight games against the Patriots, and he’s also thrown multiple touchdowns in all seven of those games. (I haven’t looked it up, but I’m not sure there’s another quarterback in the league who currently has a streak of multiple touchdowns in seven straight games against an opponent – weird.)
Let’s not get too excited. Fitzpatrick hasn’t played against New England in three years. And these Dolphins are pretty terrible. But I’m guessing Fitzpatrick probably will outperform at least a half dozen quarterbacks this week.
| FITZPATRICK VERSUS PATRIOTS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game | Result | Pct | Yds | TD | Int |
| N.E. at Buf. | L 10-17 | 68% | 178 | 1 | 1 |
| Buf. at N.E. | L 30-38 | 71% | 247 | 2 | 2 |
| N.E. at Buf. | L 3-34 | 49% | 251 | 0 | 3 |
| N.E. at Buf. | W 34-31 | 68% | 369 | 2 | 2 |
| Buf. at N.E. | L 21-49 | 63% | 307 | 2 | 4 |
| N.E. at Buf. | L 28-52 | 56% | 350 | 4 | 4 |
| Buf. at N.E. | L 31-37 | 68% | 337 | 2 | 1 |
| NYJ at N.E. | L 23-30 | 56% | 295 | 2 | 0 |
| N.E. at NYJ | W 26-20 | 63% | 296 | 3 | 0 |
| N.E. at NYJ | L 17-22 | 69% | 269 | 2 | 0 |
—Ian Allan