We’re a quarter of the way through the season. A good time to take a more focused look at strength of schedule.
Using the win-loss records of teams so far, the Bills, Browns, Steelers and Jets project to play the easiest schedules the rest of the way. The Bears, Broncos, Packers and Falcons project to play the hardest schedules.
It looks something like this …
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, RECORDS (Weeks 5-17) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Team | W | L | T | Pct |
Buffalo | 16 | 31 | 0 | .340 |
Cleveland | 17 | 29 | 1 | .372 |
Pittsburgh | 18 | 28 | 1 | .394 |
NY Jets | 21 | 31 | 0 | .404 |
Miami | 19 | 27 | 0 | .413 |
New England | 20 | 27 | 0 | .426 |
Jacksonville | 20 | 27 | 0 | .426 |
Cincinnati | 20 | 26 | 1 | .436 |
Indianapolis | 22 | 26 | 0 | .458 |
NY Giants | 21 | 24 | 2 | .468 |
Baltimore | 22 | 24 | 0 | .478 |
New Orleans | 22 | 24 | 1 | .479 |
Oakland | 22 | 24 | 1 | .479 |
San Francisco | 25 | 25 | 2 | .500 |
LA Rams | 22 | 22 | 2 | .500 |
Tampa Bay | 23 | 23 | 2 | .500 |
Kansas City | 24 | 24 | 0 | .500 |
Detroit | 25 | 23 | 0 | .521 |
LA Chargers | 25 | 23 | 0 | .521 |
Houston | 25 | 23 | 0 | .521 |
Philadelphia | 25 | 22 | 0 | .532 |
Carolina | 25 | 22 | 0 | .532 |
Tennessee | 26 | 22 | 0 | .542 |
Seattle | 25 | 20 | 1 | .554 |
Minnesota | 26 | 20 | 2 | .563 |
Dallas | 26 | 20 | 1 | .564 |
Arizona | 26 | 20 | 0 | .565 |
Washington | 26 | 19 | 1 | .576 |
Atlanta | 27 | 19 | 1 | .585 |
Green Bay | 27 | 18 | 2 | .596 |
Denver | 29 | 18 | 1 | .615 |
Chicago | 30 | 16 | 2 | .646 |
Of course, with teams having played only four games each, numbers are rough. I think all teams would much rather play the 0-4 Dolphins rather than the 0-4 Broncos. So it’s reasonable to use not actual win-loss records but what you think the team might appropriate finish with if playing an average season.
That’s a matter of opinion, of course, but to me, the teams look something like this …
ESTIMATED STRENGTH OF TEAMS | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Team | W | L | T | Pct |
New England | 14 | 2 | 0 | .875 |
Kansas City | 13 | 2 | 1 | .844 |
Philadelphia | 10 | 5 | 1 | .656 |
Dallas | 10 | 6 | 0 | .625 |
New Orleans | 10 | 6 | 0 | .625 |
Green Bay | 10 | 6 | 0 | .625 |
LA Rams | 10 | 6 | 0 | .625 |
San Francisco | 9 | 6 | 1 | .594 |
Seattle | 9 | 6 | 1 | .594 |
Cleveland | 9 | 7 | 0 | .563 |
Tampa Bay | 9 | 7 | 0 | .563 |
Houston | 9 | 7 | 0 | .563 |
Baltimore | 9 | 7 | 0 | .563 |
Chicago | 9 | 7 | 0 | .563 |
Carolina | 8 | 7 | 1 | .531 |
Indianapolis | 8 | 7 | 1 | .531 |
LA Chargers | 8 | 7 | 1 | .531 |
Detroit | 8 | 7 | 1 | .531 |
Buffalo | 8 | 8 | 0 | .500 |
Minnesota | 8 | 8 | 0 | .500 |
Pittsburgh | 7 | 8 | 1 | .469 |
Jacksonville | 7 | 8 | 1 | .469 |
Tennessee | 7 | 8 | 1 | .469 |
Atlanta | 6 | 9 | 1 | .406 |
Oakland | 6 | 10 | 0 | .375 |
NY Jets | 6 | 10 | 0 | .375 |
NY Giants | 5 | 10 | 1 | .344 |
Denver | 5 | 11 | 0 | .313 |
Arizona | 4 | 11 | 1 | .281 |
Cincinnati | 4 | 12 | 0 | .250 |
Washington | 3 | 13 | 0 | .188 |
Miami | 1 | 15 | 0 | .063 |
If we take those strength estimates and cross-merge them with the schedule, we get adjusted numbers for each team.
We still get those same four with the easiest schedules – Jets, Bills, Browns, Steelers. The Patriots show up 5th. The Bears, Browns, Falcons and Seahawks project to have the hardest schedules.
The witch doctor numbers look like this …
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, ESTIMATED (Weeks 5-17) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Team | W | L | T | Pct |
NY Jets | 85 | 119 | 4 | .418 |
Buffalo | 82 | 107 | 3 | .435 |
Cleveland | 81 | 106 | 5 | .435 |
Pittsburgh | 85 | 104 | 3 | .451 |
New England | 87 | 102 | 3 | .461 |
Philadelphia | 88 | 101 | 3 | .466 |
Miami | 88 | 100 | 4 | .469 |
Jacksonville | 89 | 97 | 6 | .479 |
Detroit | 92 | 99 | 1 | .482 |
Cincinnati | 91 | 98 | 3 | .482 |
LA Rams | 89 | 95 | 8 | .484 |
New Orleans | 90 | 93 | 9 | .492 |
NY Giants | 93 | 95 | 4 | .495 |
Indianapolis | 92 | 94 | 6 | .495 |
San Francisco | 101 | 101 | 6 | .500 |
Tampa Bay | 92 | 91 | 9 | .503 |
Oakland | 94 | 92 | 6 | .505 |
Carolina | 94 | 91 | 7 | .508 |
Baltimore | 96 | 92 | 4 | .510 |
LA Chargers | 96 | 91 | 5 | .513 |
Green Bay | 95 | 90 | 7 | .513 |
Kansas City | 97 | 91 | 4 | .516 |
Washington | 97 | 90 | 5 | .518 |
Arizona | 97 | 89 | 6 | .521 |
Minnesota | 98 | 87 | 7 | .529 |
Tennessee | 100 | 87 | 5 | .534 |
Houston | 99 | 86 | 7 | .534 |
Dallas | 101 | 87 | 4 | .536 |
Seattle | 101 | 85 | 6 | .542 |
Atlanta | 102 | 84 | 6 | .547 |
Denver | 105 | 80 | 7 | .565 |
Chicago | 106 | 80 | 6 | .568 |
We can also take the estimated strength numbers and cycle them through what’s already happened. Those numbers show that the Cowboys, Patriots, Seahawks and Bears thus far have played the league’s easiest schedules.
The Dolphins, Jets, Saints, Lions and Steelers have so far played the hardest schedules.
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, ESTIMATED (Weeks 1-4) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Team | W | L | T | Pct |
Dallas | 19 | 44 | 1 | .305 |
New England | 22 | 41 | 1 | .352 |
Seattle | 25 | 37 | 2 | .406 |
Chicago | 26 | 38 | 0 | .406 |
LA Chargers | 26 | 36 | 2 | .422 |
San Francisco | 20 | 27 | 1 | .427 |
Philadelphia | 27 | 35 | 2 | .438 |
Baltimore | 27 | 35 | 2 | .438 |
Indianapolis | 27 | 34 | 3 | .445 |
Buffalo | 29 | 34 | 1 | .461 |
NY Giants | 30 | 34 | 0 | .469 |
Kansas City | 30 | 32 | 2 | .484 |
Tennessee | 30 | 31 | 3 | .492 |
Minnesota | 31 | 32 | 1 | .492 |
Cleveland | 32 | 31 | 1 | .508 |
Carolina | 32 | 31 | 1 | .508 |
Green Bay | 32 | 31 | 1 | .508 |
Denver | 32 | 31 | 1 | .508 |
Tampa Bay | 32 | 29 | 3 | .523 |
Cincinnati | 33 | 28 | 3 | .539 |
Houston | 33 | 28 | 3 | .539 |
Atlanta | 33 | 28 | 3 | .539 |
Jacksonville | 34 | 28 | 2 | .547 |
Oakland | 34 | 28 | 2 | .547 |
Washington | 34 | 28 | 2 | .547 |
Arizona | 34 | 27 | 3 | .555 |
LA Rams | 36 | 27 | 1 | .570 |
Pittsburgh | 36 | 26 | 2 | .578 |
Detroit | 35 | 25 | 4 | .578 |
New Orleans | 38 | 25 | 1 | .602 |
NY Jets | 31 | 17 | 0 | .646 |
Miami | 41 | 22 | 1 | .648 |
—Ian Allan