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Preseason power rankings

An early "Reid" on possible Super Bowl teams

The season kicks off tomorrow, so let me weigh in with a final preseason power rankings piece – looking not at the offenses but at the relative strengths of the 32 teams.

We could be looking at an Andy Reid Super Bowl, with his current team getting back to the game for the first time since before the merger, and perhaps meeting up against his former team. Philadelphia vs. Kansas City. Sounds good (but maybe doesn’t sound quite as good after KC opens with an upset loss at Jacksonville).

Plenty of other teams in the mix, including the Patriots, Rams and Saints.

In my eyes, it’s easier to stick off the teams in each conference that won’t make the playoffs. I am penciling in the Dolphins, Titans, Bengals, Raiders, Cardinals, Lions, Bucs and Washington for last-place finishes.

I expect the Dolphins will hit double-digit losses before any team hits double-digit wins.

I see four divisions where there will be legit three-team races: the two North divisions, and the two South Divisions. Kansas City and New England look pretty looked in as winners in the other AFC divisions, while on the NFC side, I see two-team races in the East (Eagles-Cowboys) and West (Rams-Seahawks).

Working in a vacuum, if teams were to play a typical schedule, I think the win-loss records would finish about like this …

PRESEASON POWER RANKINGS
TeamWLTPct
Kansas City1330.813
New England1240.750
Philadelphia1240.750
LA Rams1150.688
New Orleans1051.656
Dallas1060.625
Seattle1060.625
Houston961.594
Minnesota961.594
Pittsburgh961.594
Atlanta970.563
Baltimore970.563
Chicago970.563
Green Bay970.563
Indianapolis970.563
Carolina871.531
Cleveland871.531
Jacksonville880.500
LA Chargers880.500
Denver790.438
Buffalo691.406
Detroit691.406
NY Giants691.406
NY Jets691.406
San Francisco691.406
Tennessee5101.344
Arizona5110.313
Cincinnati5110.313
Oakland5110.313
Tampa Bay4111.281
Washington4111.281
Miami2140.125

If we take those win-loss projections and plug them into the 2019 schedule, they indicate the Patriots, Bills, Browns and Jets should play the easiest schedules.

The Bears, Vikings, Bucs, Titans and Raiders project to be the most adversely affected by schedules – they’ll tend to face harder teams.

EXPECTED STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE
TeamWLTPct
New England1171381.459
Buffalo1181371.463
Cleveland1191370.465
NY Jets1191370.465
Pittsburgh1211341.475
Philadelphia1221340.477
Indianapolis1231330.480
NY Giants1231321.482
Jacksonville1251310.488
Carolina1261300.492
LA Rams1261291.494
Cincinnati1261291.494
Kansas City1271290.496
New Orleans1271281.498
LA Chargers1271281.498
Baltimore1281280.500
Dallas1281271.502
San Francisco1301260.508
Detroit1301251.510
Seattle1311250.512
Green Bay1311250.512
Houston1311241.514
Miami1321240.516
Arizona1321231.518
Atlanta1331230.520
Denver1331230.520
Washington1331230.520
Oakland1331221.521
Tennessee1331221.521
Tampa Bay1331221.521
Minnesota1341220.523
Chicago1371181.537

—Ian Allan

12 Reader Comments:

MATT SHEDOR

Algonquin, IL
2019-09-04T21:55:47Z
12 teams stronger than the Bears, including Baltimore? I know they have a tougher schedule, but I expect the team to be better than last year on both sides of the ball.

Ben Hogevoll

Siletz, OR
2019-09-04T22:32:28Z
Matt,Vegas sees it a little different and they have the big bucks riding on super Bowl futures.They have Chiefs,Pats tied at 7 to 1 odds Next is Saints and Eagles at 10 to 1 odds.Rams is 4th at 12 to 1 odds.Bears is at 18 to 1 odds.The surprise is they have Browns at 15 to 1 odds.Crazy but I think lots of wagers have been placed on them which brought their odds down. The biggest deficits is Dolphins at 300 to 1 and Redskins at 200 to 1.

Robert Buckmann

Mount Dora, FL
2019-09-04T22:39:42Z
I think that you are being to generous to the Dolphins. I am not sure they will win a game...I see 0-16. Hard to do but there doesn't seem to be much talent on that team.

Paul Desimone

Hayward, CA
2019-09-04T22:58:07Z
27th might be a touch generous for Arizona. Let's see if Kyler Murray survives week 2 (in Baltimore) first.

Andy Richardson

Port Chester, NY
2019-09-04T23:22:44Z
If Houston and New Orleans tie this week, you're off to a good start

Ian Allan

Seattle, WA
2019-09-05T00:14:21Z
Bears are fine, but I don't know that they're better than two other teams in their own division. Chicago, Minnesota and Green Bay, I think, are all very much in the thick of the hunt for the NFC North title.

David Kennedy

Steamburg, NY
2019-09-05T00:29:49Z
Chargers are better than 8-8. Jags will be better than Colts.

Mike Conway

Nanuet, NY
2019-09-05T00:59:34Z
Jets 6 wins? Think you have Darnold and Crowder very undervalued,could see Darnold as a MVP candidate 30plus TD's.

Ian Allan

Seattle, WA
2019-09-05T01:36:46Z
... says the guy who’s wearing a brand-new, bright green #14 jersey.

Craig Larimer

Portland, OR
2019-09-05T04:17:36Z
No one is talking about them, but I think the Niners will surprise some people this year and end up with a Wild Card. I see the Seahawks regressing a little. They are a Wilson or LB Smith/Wagner injury away from being 6-10. Not much depth.

SF has a strong D Line with Armstead, Buckner, Bosa, and Ford. Though I think Ford is injured. If their O Line plays well and Jimmy G plays like the guy from 2017, they could be great.

Ryan Peterson

Chandler, AZ
2019-09-05T05:11:10Z
Ian, you're right on with SF and Tennessee. It all unravels for Mariota and Tennessee this season, and SF still has a bad defense and only one good pass catcher.

ROBERT JOHNSON

Pearland, TX
2019-09-05T19:46:03Z
What David Kennedy said.
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