The season kicks off tomorrow, so let me weigh in with a final preseason power rankings piece – looking not at the offenses but at the relative strengths of the 32 teams.
We could be looking at an Andy Reid Super Bowl, with his current team getting back to the game for the first time since before the merger, and perhaps meeting up against his former team. Philadelphia vs. Kansas City. Sounds good (but maybe doesn’t sound quite as good after KC opens with an upset loss at Jacksonville).
Plenty of other teams in the mix, including the Patriots, Rams and Saints.
In my eyes, it’s easier to stick off the teams in each conference that won’t make the playoffs. I am penciling in the Dolphins, Titans, Bengals, Raiders, Cardinals, Lions, Bucs and Washington for last-place finishes.
I expect the Dolphins will hit double-digit losses before any team hits double-digit wins.
I see four divisions where there will be legit three-team races: the two North divisions, and the two South Divisions. Kansas City and New England look pretty looked in as winners in the other AFC divisions, while on the NFC side, I see two-team races in the East (Eagles-Cowboys) and West (Rams-Seahawks).
Working in a vacuum, if teams were to play a typical schedule, I think the win-loss records would finish about like this …
PRESEASON POWER RANKINGS | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Team | W | L | T | Pct |
Kansas City | 13 | 3 | 0 | .813 |
New England | 12 | 4 | 0 | .750 |
Philadelphia | 12 | 4 | 0 | .750 |
LA Rams | 11 | 5 | 0 | .688 |
New Orleans | 10 | 5 | 1 | .656 |
Dallas | 10 | 6 | 0 | .625 |
Seattle | 10 | 6 | 0 | .625 |
Houston | 9 | 6 | 1 | .594 |
Minnesota | 9 | 6 | 1 | .594 |
Pittsburgh | 9 | 6 | 1 | .594 |
Atlanta | 9 | 7 | 0 | .563 |
Baltimore | 9 | 7 | 0 | .563 |
Chicago | 9 | 7 | 0 | .563 |
Green Bay | 9 | 7 | 0 | .563 |
Indianapolis | 9 | 7 | 0 | .563 |
Carolina | 8 | 7 | 1 | .531 |
Cleveland | 8 | 7 | 1 | .531 |
Jacksonville | 8 | 8 | 0 | .500 |
LA Chargers | 8 | 8 | 0 | .500 |
Denver | 7 | 9 | 0 | .438 |
Buffalo | 6 | 9 | 1 | .406 |
Detroit | 6 | 9 | 1 | .406 |
NY Giants | 6 | 9 | 1 | .406 |
NY Jets | 6 | 9 | 1 | .406 |
San Francisco | 6 | 9 | 1 | .406 |
Tennessee | 5 | 10 | 1 | .344 |
Arizona | 5 | 11 | 0 | .313 |
Cincinnati | 5 | 11 | 0 | .313 |
Oakland | 5 | 11 | 0 | .313 |
Tampa Bay | 4 | 11 | 1 | .281 |
Washington | 4 | 11 | 1 | .281 |
Miami | 2 | 14 | 0 | .125 |
If we take those win-loss projections and plug them into the 2019 schedule, they indicate the Patriots, Bills, Browns and Jets should play the easiest schedules.
The Bears, Vikings, Bucs, Titans and Raiders project to be the most adversely affected by schedules – they’ll tend to face harder teams.
EXPECTED STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Team | W | L | T | Pct |
New England | 117 | 138 | 1 | .459 |
Buffalo | 118 | 137 | 1 | .463 |
Cleveland | 119 | 137 | 0 | .465 |
NY Jets | 119 | 137 | 0 | .465 |
Pittsburgh | 121 | 134 | 1 | .475 |
Philadelphia | 122 | 134 | 0 | .477 |
Indianapolis | 123 | 133 | 0 | .480 |
NY Giants | 123 | 132 | 1 | .482 |
Jacksonville | 125 | 131 | 0 | .488 |
Carolina | 126 | 130 | 0 | .492 |
LA Rams | 126 | 129 | 1 | .494 |
Cincinnati | 126 | 129 | 1 | .494 |
Kansas City | 127 | 129 | 0 | .496 |
New Orleans | 127 | 128 | 1 | .498 |
LA Chargers | 127 | 128 | 1 | .498 |
Baltimore | 128 | 128 | 0 | .500 |
Dallas | 128 | 127 | 1 | .502 |
San Francisco | 130 | 126 | 0 | .508 |
Detroit | 130 | 125 | 1 | .510 |
Seattle | 131 | 125 | 0 | .512 |
Green Bay | 131 | 125 | 0 | .512 |
Houston | 131 | 124 | 1 | .514 |
Miami | 132 | 124 | 0 | .516 |
Arizona | 132 | 123 | 1 | .518 |
Atlanta | 133 | 123 | 0 | .520 |
Denver | 133 | 123 | 0 | .520 |
Washington | 133 | 123 | 0 | .520 |
Oakland | 133 | 122 | 1 | .521 |
Tennessee | 133 | 122 | 1 | .521 |
Tampa Bay | 133 | 122 | 1 | .521 |
Minnesota | 134 | 122 | 0 | .523 |
Chicago | 137 | 118 | 1 | .537 |
—Ian Allan