The Patriots have scored 5 touchdowns in their first seven games on defensive plays. Can they keep that up? Or is this just a luck/chance type thing that is unlikely to be repeated.
They’ve been helped along by an easy schedule; that’s a fact. They’re also playing really well, seemingly a step ahead of other defenses in terms of smarts and coverages.
But I’m of the school of thought that there is a large degree of chance in scoring defensive touchdowns, and that’s supported by the historical numbers. Plenty of other defenses, after all, have also scored of touchdowns, but only rarely do you see that kind of success last for an entire season.
Since 2003, 26 other defenses have scored at least 5 TDs in their first eight games. That’s including interception and fumble returns and also special teams plays – kickoffs, punts. None of those teams scored 5 TDs in the second half of the season, and only 2 managed to score 4 TDs. The vast majority (17 of 26) scored 1-2 TDs in their final eight games. Three didn’t score at all, and 4 scored 3 TDs.
For fantasy purposes, if you can get 3-4 defensive touchdowns in eight games, that’s a success (so I’ve got those franchises tagged with black dots).
Overall, those 26 defenses scored 45 touchdowns in a combined 208 games. That’s .21 TDs per game and 1.73 TDs (on average) for each team in the second half of the season.
| DEFENSIVE TOUCHDOWNS (1st v. 2nd H) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Team | 1-8 | 9-16 |
| 2003 | • Arizona | 5 | 3 |
| 2003 | St. Louis | 5 | 2 |
| 2004 | Washington | 5 | 1 |
| 2005 | New Orleans | 5 | 2 |
| 2007 | Denver | 5 | 2 |
| 2007 | Dallas | 5 | 0 |
| 2008 | • Minnesota | 6 | 3 |
| 2009 | • St. Louis | 5 | 3 |
| 2009 | Pittsburgh | 6 | 2 |
| 2009 | NY Jets | 6 | 1 |
| 2009 | Carolina | 6 | 1 |
| 2009 | Minnesota | 5 | 0 |
| 2010 | San Diego | 6 | 1 |
| 2011 | St. Louis | 5 | 2 |
| 2011 | Indianapolis | 5 | 0 |
| 2012 | • Detroit | 6 | 4 |
| 2012 | Kansas City | 5 | 2 |
| 2012 | Dallas | 5 | 1 |
| 2013 | NY Giants | 7 | 2 |
| 2013 | Washington | 5 | 2 |
| 2013 | Houston | 7 | 1 |
| 2014 | • St. Louis | 6 | 4 |
| 2014 | Jacksonville | 5 | 1 |
| 2015 | Chicago | 5 | 1 |
| 2016 | • Tennessee | 5 | 3 |
| 2017 | Indianapolis | 5 | 1 |
| 2019 | New England | 6 | ? |
As long as we’ve got these numbers out, we can also look at teams scoring 4 defensive touchdowns in the first half of the season. They’re very similar.
There are 28 such teams, and they also averaged 1.7 TDs in the second half of the season (47 touchdowns for those teams, so 1.68 – slightly lower).
The 2004 Dolphins go down as the only one of these 54 teams to get even better. They scored 4 TDs in their first eight games, then scored 6 more in the second have.
But of the 28-team group of teams with 4 TDs, only 2 others scored another 4 TDs, andonly 3 scored 3 TDs. The majority (22 of 28) scored 0, 1 or 2 TDs.
As with the first group, I have the teams scoring 3-4 TDs tagged with dots.
| DEFENSES WITH 4 TD IN FIRST EIGHT GAMES | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Team | 1-8 | 9-16 |
| 2003 | Pittsburgh | 4 | 0 |
| 2003 | Houston | 4 | 0 |
| 2004 | • Miami | 4 | 6 |
| 2004 | Arizona | 4 | 1 |
| 2005 | Tennessee | 4 | 2 |
| 2005 | Detroit | 4 | 1 |
| 2006 | Cleveland | 4 | 2 |
| 2006 | Arizona | 4 | 0 |
| 2008 | Detroit | 4 | 2 |
| 2008 | NY Jets | 4 | 1 |
| 2008 | Indianapolis | 4 | 0 |
| 2010 | Minnesota | 4 | 2 |
| 2010 | Dallas | 4 | 2 |
| 2010 | New Orleans | 4 | 1 |
| 2011 | • Oakland | 4 | 3 |
| 2011 | • NY Jets | 4 | 3 |
| 2011 | Seattle | 4 | 0 |
| 2012 | • Tennessee | 4 | 4 |
| 2013 | • Chicago | 4 | 4 |
| 2013 | Philadelphia | 4 | 2 |
| 2013 | NY Jets | 4 | 2 |
| 2013 | Jacksonville | 4 | 0 |
| 2015 | • Jacksonville | 4 | 3 |
| 2015 | Dallas | 4 | 2 |
| 2016 | NY Jets | 4 | 2 |
| 2016 | New Orleans | 4 | 1 |
| 2017 | Detroit | 4 | 1 |
| 2017 | Houston | 4 | 0 |
For the Patriots, as well as they’ve played, I am operating under the assumption they’ll score about 1.7 defensive touchdowns in their final eight games.
—Ian Allan