Quick disclaimer: I'm not very good at math. I actually did better on my SATs in the math portion than the verbal portion, but I was hung over. So I'm not sure how reliable those scores really are.
Anyway, despite my limitations, I'm going to use mathematical concepts to describe what I've been seeing from one of my teams this season. So if I mess up the terms or miss something, be kind.
I've noticed that I have very little standard deviation on one of my teams. Almost all of my weekly scores are similar, and those numbers are a fair amount above the league average each week. My team is a solid, consistent performer, and I'm pretty sure that's why I'm not going to win a title.
Okay, I'm getting bored with the math stuff already. Suffice it to say that my guys are usually scoring a good amount of points each game. They rarely leave me with three or four points, but they don't give me 25 points, either. No Christian McCaffrey or Michael Thomas, but no Miami Dolphins, either. And since I'm well above the league average I should be in great shape, right?
But I'm not. I'm 5-3. A little better than average, but susceptible to teams with a lot more variance in their player performances than I have. I'm fine if a team has an average day or worse. In a league where anything in the 90s is a pretty good score, I've faced a few 70s, which I've won easily. But I've also faced some 130s and 140s, and I've lost every one. My team isn't built for those dream weeks we all love, where the touchdowns are coming from everywhere and the yards are piling up at every position. And that's where teams like mine are going to have problems in the coming weeks.
I think it's better to have some of those wild performers on your roster than a team exclusively made up of steady, solid producers. If the schedule isn't kind and you happen to face a bunch of big weeks, you're not going to overcome those numbers. We've all seen the team with the second-highest score of the week lose to the highest score. The problem is, you're simply not going not going to be the highest score. You probably won't be the second-highest, either. So a big week beats you almost every time.
You'll also struggle on punishing bye weeks, because you don't have guys who can triple their average to carry you when you have to start multiple backups.
And finally, if you do somehow get past the gauntlet of unforgiving bye weeks and a schedule that doesn't care about your title aspirations, are you going to win two games against the league's best in the playoffs? All it takes is one really good week from an opponent and you're done.
Now, I'm not saying it's a curse to have solid performers. If you have a high standard deviation, the schedule can punish you just as easily. You might get huge numbers when you don't need them, and fall short when all you needed was an average day. That's why a team sitting at 2-6 can be a great trade target, because they could have strong players who aren't coming together at the right times. You could also enter the playoffs with a 145-point bang, and end with a 68-point whimper.
But as we've past the halfway point in the fantasy season, I've come to realize something else about my team: It's kind of boring. Sure, it's annoying to lose to the team with Tevin Coleman in their stupid lineup, but it's also nice to rack up the points and bury your opponent before the late games have even started. Those things happen with risky, high-variance teams. And when I think of great fantasy memories (Shaun Alexander scoring five touchdowns in the first half of a Sunday Night Football game) or nightmare scenarios (Mike Evans getting shut out earlier this month against the Saints), it's usually the numbers that are way above or below the expected performance. And when they happen in the fantasy playoffs, it's even more memorable: When Tom Brady threw 50 touchdowns and the Patriots went 16-0 back in 2007, his week 15 performance was certainly memorable: 140 yards and an interception. And if he was on your team that season, you probably remember it better than anyone.
But unless I somehow win a title, it will be hard to remember much about a team that delivered good numbers, but no jump-out-of-your-chair moments. I'm in better shape than a lot of teams, so I'm certainly grateful for what I have. But I also think that more huge weeks are right around the corner, and there's a good chance they'll either derail my playoff hopes or send me packing early if I make it that far. I hope I'm wrong, and that doesn't happen to me. Or to you, either. Good luck this week.
Do you like having players with huge point swings, or do you prefer steady production each week? Have you been rescued (or burned) by superhuman fantasy performances? Share your thoughts below.