Dynasty Leagues

November 16, 2019

Long-term tight end rankings

What is value of a decent player who might not be around in 2020?

In November, rankings for dynasty leagues get particularly tricky. You get into trying to weigh guys with some short-term value against younger players with some potential to maybe develop into something in the future. (Or not.)

Specifically at the tight end position, what are the values of guys like Jason Witten and Greg Olsen? They’ve been great players in the past and will catch a few balls, but I don’t think we’ll see either of them on the field in 2020. And we can probably put Benjamin Watson and Delanie Walker in this group.

Or do we instead go with a youngster like Jace Sternberger or Dawson Knox? These guys might not become viable players, but some chance they might develop into decent starters at some point. Knox has had a credible rookie season with the Bills. With Sternberger, the Packers drafted him in the third round, and I’m operating under the assumption that Jimmy Graham will be gone at the end of the season.

With these rankings, you have to decide how far in the future you want to look. Do you at all about 2023 or 2024? And any model needs to factor in that things invariably change along the way. A month ago, for example, nobody considered Jacob Hollister to be one of the game’s top 50 tight ends. Now you can legitimately argue whether he might be a top-10 guy for the remainder for the 2019 season (and if so, perhaps a viable choice in 2020).

For these rankings, I’m going off my gut. That is, I’ve got the guys in a long list, and I comb over it for about an hour, moving guys a few spots up and down, based on what feels right. I’m assuming PPR scoring, and I’m assuming we’re in a dynasty league with deep rosters – perhaps 12 teams with each of them carrying three tight ends.

I turn my attention to dynasty leagues each Saturday, focusing on one position. To see previous posts, use the “past issues” links on the right side of the page.

Last week: Wide receivers.

Next week: quarterbacks.

Rookies tagged with black dots.

DYNASTY TIGHT ENDS
RK	Tm	Player	Age
1.	SF	George Kittle	26
2.	KC	Travis Kelce	30
3.	PHI	Zach Ertz	29
4.	ATL	Austin Hooper	25
5.	BAL	Mark Andrews	23
6.	LAC	Hunter Henry	24
7.	NYG	Evan Engram	25
8.	DET	• T.J. Hockenson	22
9.	OAK	Darren Waller	27
10.	DEN	• Noah Fant	21
11.	CLE	David Njoku	23
12.	PHI	Dallas Goedert	24
13.	MIN	• Irv Smith	21
14.	LAR	Gerald Everett	25
15.	MIA	Mike Gesicki	24
16.	TB	O.J. Howard	24
17.	PIT	Vance McDonald	29
18.	IND	Eric Ebron	26
19.	SEA	Jacob Hollister	25
20.	GB	• Jace Sternberger	23
21.	NYJ	Chris Herndon	23
22.	MIN	Kyle Rudolph	30
23.	IND	Jack Doyle	29
24.	BUF	• Dawson Knox	23
25.	TB	Cameron Brate	28
26.	NO	Jared Cook	32
27.	CIN	Tyler Eifert	29
28.	GB	Jimmy Graham	32
29.	SEA	Will Dissly	23
30.	DAL	Blake Jarwin	25
31.	HOU	Jordan Akins	27
32.	CAR	Greg Olsen	34
33.	IND	Mo Alie-Cox	26
34.	TEN	Jonnu Smith	24
35.	JAC	• Josh Oliver	22
36.	CHI	Trey Burton	28
37.	BAL	Hayden Hurst	26
38.	OAK	• Foster Moreau	22
39.	HOU	Darren Fells	33
40.	LAR	Tyler Higbee	26
41.	CLE	Ricky Seals-Jones	24
42.	TEN	Delanie Walker	35
43.	DAL	Jason Witten	37
44.	SF	Ross Dwelley	24
45.	CAR	Ian Thomas	24
46.	NE	Benjamin Watson	38
47.	TB	• Tanner Hudson	25
48.	CIN	• Drew Sample	23
49.	BAL	Nick Boyle	26
50.	SEA	Ed Dickson	32
51.	NE	Rob Gronkowski	30
52.	BUF	Tyler Kroft	27
53.	HOU	• Kahale Warring	22
54.	DET	Logan Thomas	28
55.	KC	Blake Bell	28
56.	CHI	Adam Shaheen	26
57.	JAC	Geoff Swaim	26
58.	HOU	Jordan Thomas	23
59.	ARI	Maxx Williams	25
60.	NYJ	• Trevon Wesco	24

—Ian Allan

Greg Olsen Jason Witten

5 Reader Comments:

Moishe Steigmann

Milwaukee, WI

2019-11-16T23:28:59Z

Thanks for the rankings. Honestly, I thought I was higher on Alie-Cox than just about anyone, but clearly I'm second to you :).

Would you mind sharing your thought-process behind ranking him so high?

Andy Richardson

Port Chester, NY

2019-11-17T00:23:44Z

I don’t see it as particularly high. Ebron is a free agent after the season and has struggled with drops and complained about his role. Doyle turns 30 in the offseason, old for a TE, and has been injury prone of late. I think he has a better chance of being relevant next year in Indy’s 2-TE offense than some guys ahead of him, like Graham and a couple of other elderly types.

JEFF ZWIERS

Bellingham, WA

2019-11-17T03:47:09Z

I think I might even move Hooper above Ertz.... he's four years younger and playing better than him this year at least.

Ian Allan

Seattle, WA

2019-11-17T05:24:37Z

Moishe is correct is pointing out Alie-Cox. That selection could merit more discussion. If Alie-Cox wasn't even one of the 60 tight ends listed, I don't think anybody would mention it. My thinking was that he might be the Indianapolis tight end next year. Eric Ebron is a free agent at the end of the year. Will he be re-signed? If he's gone, then I think Alie-Cox very likely will get plugged into that role. And if that occurs, then I think we would have something of note, given Frank Reich's ability to put togehter offenses, and the way they have used Ebron in the red zone. Alie-Cox is 26, and he's been studying in that offense for a couple of years. The ranking may seem high, but 33 isn't actually that high if we think of a typical fantasy league. If we have 12 teams, that would mean I'm saying some team should be carrying Alie-Cox as its 3rd tight end.

Moishe Steigmann

Milwaukee, WI

2019-11-18T15:50:22Z

Thanks for your thoughts, Andy and Ian. My issue isn't the optimism about Alie-Cox but rather the likelihood of it happening. First, at least of the two TEs ahead of him needs to be gone after this year. Second, Indy needs to continue to have an offense that can support two viable TEs (it hasn't this year). Third, Indy needs to not get another TE. And, fourth, Alie-Cox actually needs to produce. He has shown flashes but hasn't done anything in a real game to show that he can be a consistent weapon on offense. He profiles well but hasn't yet produced.

Looking at other players behind him, I see similar upside with fewer things that need to go right for them to have an opportunity. J Smith, Oliver, maybe Moreau, Seals-Jones, I Thomas. I can understand having Alie-Cox ahead of one or two of those guys whom you think will never develop, but it's really hard to see the path to viability for A-C.

That being said, I do agree that, at TE33, he's a dart-throw anyway -- along with anyone behind him. So, might as well stash the guy that you like at that point almost regardless of the odds since they're all so low anyway.

Thank you both again for your replies!

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Long-term tight end rankings

5 Reader Comments:

Moishe Steigmann

Andy Richardson

JEFF ZWIERS

Ian Allan

Moishe Steigmann

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