Lamar Jackson has been red-hot this year – specifically this month. But where does he fit in the long-term scheme of things? Can we count on him being an elite fantasy option in 2, 4 or 6 years?
Rankings get harder as we expand the scope beyond just this season. Dynasty leagues are a different animal. But in my eyes, Jackson belongs in the top tier of quarterbacks in such a format (with fantasy teams holding the rights to players indefinitely).
In that kind of a format, I think the emphasis needs to be on collecting players who will be difference makers in the foreseeable future. You’re looking for players with some chance to be transcendent in the next few years. So much will change in the next five years (with injuries, coaching changes and fantasy teams getting many opportunities to obtain additional players) that I don’t think too much weight can be given to what’s happening too far down the road.
The game is to find a quarterback who offers something beyond the many decent quarterbacks who will always be out there. In typical fantasy leagues, you can usually find a somewhat serviceable quarterback on the waiver wire or via low-cost trade before long. We’re looking for something special.
In that sense, six quarterbacks stand out to me.
Patrick Mahomes is the clear No. 1, I think, and Deshaun Watson looks pretty firm as the next choice. Like Jackson, Watson also adds considerable value as a runner (tending to score about half of his team’s rushing touchdowns). And Watson right now is way ahead of Jackson as a passer, in terms of understanding coverages and making accurate throws. He connected on a couple of really impressive deep passes last night against the Colts; I don’t think Jackson at this point in his career can make those throws.
Russell Wilson is in the top tier. He’s really elevated his game this year, developing into a true elite quarterback. He’s older than the other top options, but at 30, he’s still got plenty of good years left in him.
I’m ranking Jackson 4th. He’s a completely different kind of player, doing it more as a runner than a passer. With the amount he’s running, I worry about how long he can stay healthy. And I worry about what will happen if and when defenses develop a better plan for how to defend that unconventional offense. When Jackson gets into his late 20s, he’ll need to start relying more on his arm and less on his elite running ability, and that will be a tough transition.
But for fantasy purposes, there’s some chance that Jackson is a top-3 quarterback in the 2020, 2021 or 2022 seasons, and that has to be given considerable weight. If he flames out or gets hurt in 2023 or 2024, well, that’s a long way down the road (is our fantasy league still even in existence at that time?).
I’ve got two other young quarterbacks in the top tier, Dak Prescott and Kyler Murray. Murray runs a lot and is tiny, but I like that he does a good job of avoiding hits by stepping out of bounds or getting on the ground. As a passer, I think Murray is better than Jackson – looks like he could have some really nice seasons in the next few years.
After those first eight guys, I’ve got a couple of older passers, Matt Ryan and Aaron Rodgers. With them, I think you’re hoping more for good quarterback, rather than transcendent type guys.
I ranked Carson Wentz 9th, but I would have liked to have ranked him lower. He hasn’t had that elite look since his big season in 2017.
In the second ten, I think Cam Newton is the most interesting name. I ranked him 17th. I don’t know where he’s playing and in what kind of offense, but he could still potentially re-emerge as a top-10 quarterback in 2020.
Tom Brady and Philip Rivers have had great careers, but both are nearing the end of the road. Is either even playing in 2020? I had no interest in ranking either in my top 20. Considering Rivers’ awful play in the next two weeks, I moved Tyrod Taylor up to 32nd this week. I would be intrigued to see what kind of numbers he would put up if he ends up starting for the Chargers in 2020.
I turn the attention to dynasty rankings each weekend, focusing on a different position each time. I hit tight ends last week. It will be running backs next week. To see previous lists, click on the “past issues” link on the right side of the page.
In this chart, rookies tagged with black dots.
| DYNASTY QUARTERBACK RANKINGS | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rk | Tm | Player | Age |
| 1. | KC | Patrick Mahomes | 24 |
| 2. | HOU | Deshaun Watson | 24 |
| 3. | SEA | Russell Wilson | 30 |
| 4. | BAL | Lamar Jackson | 22 |
| 5. | DAL | Dak Prescott | 26 |
| 6. | ARI | • Kyler Murray | 22 |
| 7. | ATL | Matt Ryan | 34 |
| 8. | GB | Aaron Rodgers | 35 |
| 9. | PHI | Carson Wentz | 26 |
| 10. | MIN | Kirk Cousins | 31 |
| 11. | CLE | Baker Mayfield | 24 |
| 12. | BUF | Josh Allen | 23 |
| 13. | OAK | Derek Carr | 28 |
| 14. | DET | Matthew Stafford | 31 |
| 15. | IND | Jacoby Brissett | 26 |
| 16. | NYJ | Sam Darnold | 22 |
| 17. | CAR | Cam Newton | 30 |
| 18. | LAR | Jared Goff | 25 |
| 19. | NYG | • Daniel Jones | 22 |
| 20. | SF | Jimmy Garoppolo | 28 |
| 21. | NO | Drew Brees | 40 |
| 22. | TB | Jameis Winston | 25 |
| 23. | NE | Tom Brady | 42 |
| 24. | PIT | Ben Roethlisberger | 37 |
| 25. | JAC | Nick Foles | 30 |
| 26. | LAC | Philip Rivers | 37 |
| 27. | WAS | • Dwayne Haskins | 22 |
| 28. | TEN | Ryan Tannehill | 31 |
| 29. | JAC | • Gardner Minshew | 24 |
| 30. | CIN | Andy Dalton | 32 |
| 31. | NO | Teddy Bridgewater | 27 |
| 32. | LAC | Tyrod Taylor | 30 |
| 33. | TEN | Marcus Mariota | 26 |
| 34. | DEN | • Drew Lock | 23 |
| 35. | CAR | Kyle Allen | 23 |
| 36. | CHI | Mitchell Trubisky | 25 |
| 37. | MIA | Josh Rosen | 22 |
| 38. | PIT | Mason Rudolph | 24 |
| 39. | NE | • Jarrett Stidham | 23 |
| 40. | DEN | Brandon Allen | 27 |
| 41. | MIA | Ryan Fitzpatrick | 36 |
| 42. | SF | Nick Mullens | 24 |
| 43. | WAS | Case Keenum | 31 |
| 44. | CIN | • Ryan Finley | 24 |
| 45. | LAR | Blake Bortles | 27 |
| 46. | IND | Andrew Luck | 30 |
| 47. | HOU | AJ McCarron | 29 |
| 48. | BAL | Robert Griffin | 29 |
| 49. | PHI | Nate Sudfeld | 26 |
| 50. | NO | Taysom Hill | 29 |
—Ian Allan