Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition. A Penny for thoughts on Seattle's backfield. What's wrong with James White? A defense that could pick up late in the year. And mulling whether to bench Patrick Mahomes.

Question 1

I had been holding onto Rashaad Penny all-season as a handcuff to Chris Carson. Last week, needing a roster space to pick up and start Tarik Cohen, I dropped Penny. Of course, the Seahawks saw fit to let Penny get the majority of the carries against the Eagles. Should I be concerned that Carson is hurt, or his fumbling issues are going to cause Penny to have a year-end resurgence? I've heard a lot of rumors about Penny, i.e. he's another Christian Michael, is injury-prone, doesn't understand pass protection schemes, can't run inside or catch, while Carson quietly goes about his business as the lead back. Of course, Penny has first-round pedigree and is probably faster and more explosive than Carson. Time to re-invest in Penny stock?

Drew Paterson (Ferndale, WA)

Pete Carroll says Penny will get increased opportunities going forward, and that’s reasonable (with Penny having run for 129 yards off the bench at Philadelphia, with the 58-yard game-clinching touchdown). But I’m not sure that we’ll see a wildly different backfield. I don’t think we’re at the point where it’s a true time-share (where it’s hard to tell from week-to-week who fill finish with better stats). I don’t think Penny is on the verge of becoming a starter – I don’t think they’re thinking at all about that right now. My expectation is that Carson will remain the starter, finishing with more touches and yards in probably all of their remaining games. Carson is definitely way ahead of Penny in the passing game. And while Carson has fumbled 7 times, I don’t think that will be a problem going forward. Going forward, I think it’s reasonable to downgrade Carson a little (he should play less as Penny plays more) but I don’t think it’s a giant shift. Seattle is playing against a really bad Carolina run defense in Week 15; I still think Carson could be very good in the that game.

Add Comment

Question 2

Why do you guys continue to run James White out there every week in your top 20?

Bill Cline (McKees Rocks, PA)

With White, you’re not playing for the rushing production but for what he does in the passing game. He caught 87 passes and 7 TDs a year ago. He’s a matchup nightmare coming out of the backfield. With that receiving production, he finished with the 7th-most points of all running backs in 2018 using PPR scoring. White hasn’t been as good this year, but he hasn’t been a disaster – he’s averaging just short of 5 catches per game (which clocks out to almost 80 over 16 games). He hasn’t caught as many touchdowns (just one) but those can be fickle – each week you have to decide whether he has a 5, 10 or 20 percent chance of catching whatever touchdowns they throw. You have to decide whether he’s something close to 2018 James White, who caught almost a quarter of their touchdowns. Or if he’s simply a non-factor in the red zone now (he’s caught only 1 of their 16 touchdowns this year). White ranked 7th in scoring among running backs last year. He’s sitting at 28th right now. His week-to-week value reasonably should rank somewhere in-between. Most recently, White put up a clunker in Week 12, with only 2 carries for 5 yards and his only catch losing 6 yards. Heading into that game, my expectation was that he would be better than usual, with the Patriots operating without two of their top 3 wide receivers (with both Mohamed Sanu and Phillip Dorsett hurt). I figured that probably would result in White playing a larger than usual role in the passing game. I didn’t work out that way, of course, but I think it was a reasonable expectation.

RUNNING BACKS, PPR
RkPlayerPoints
1.McCaffrey, Christian CAR336.9
2.Cook, Dalvin MIN258.2
3.Ekeler, Austin LAC222.1
4.Elliott, Ezekiel DAL218.6
5.Jones, Aaron GBP217.2
6.Fournette, Leonard JAC208.2
7.Chubb, Nick CLE206.1
8.Henry, Derrick TEN203.4
9.Ingram, Mark BAL186.7
10.Kamara, Alvin NOS179.8
11.Carson, Chris SEA177.1
12.Jacobs, Josh OAK170.3
13.Bell, LeVeon NYJ169.5
14.Lindsay, Phillip DEN147.1
15.Montgomery, David CHI135.7
16.Gurley, Todd LAR135.4
17.Mack, Marlon IND131.8
18.Freeman, Devonta ATL131.7
19.Conner, James PIT129.2
20.Murray, Latavius NOS125.9
21.Barkley, Saquon NYG125.0
22.Johnson, David ARI123.5
23.Coleman, Tevin SFO122.3
24.Mixon, Joe CIN122.3
25.Williams, Jamaal GBP121.7
26.Jones, Ronald TBB120.2
27.Sanders, Miles PHI118.4
28.White, James NEP118.0

4 Comments | Add Comment

Question 3

They have been mediocre so far this year but what are your thoughts on picking up the Eagles defense to finish out the year? Four of the last five games look like potential turnover-fests with games against Miami, Washington and the Giants twice.

Rich Nadler (Aurora, IL)

I also noticed that schedule (I attempted to pick up Jake Elliott as my stretch-run kicker in a league). Makes a lot of sense with defense, with those of those games being against the error-prone rookie quarterbacks. When you have a defense playing against Dwayne Haskins and Daniel Jones, good things should happen. And the Eagles could be ready to go on a little roll right now. They’ve been a big disappointment, but they are still very much in control of their fortunes in the NFC East – that’s apparent after Dallas lost yesterday.

1 Comment | Add Comment

Question 4

I can see my season coming down to week 14. I will have to decide between Mahomes at New England and Darnold at home against Miami. Your thoughts please.

Rick Heidorn (Minneola, FL)

Right now, I would start Patrick Mahomes. If I’m going to sit down a superstar for a lesser guy with a good matchup, I have to feel really good about it. I’m not there yet. Darnold underperformed in a pair of similar situations a month ago. He passed for only 260 yards, with 1 TD, when the Jets shockingly lost at Miami. And Darnold passed for only 230 yards and 1 TD against a really bad Giants defense. I would hate to start him ahead of Mahomes, then watch him put up one of those kind of games. Mahomes is going up against a really good defense, and one that’s had some success against him. But while the Patriots stifled Mahomes at times last year, he still finished with good numbers in both of those games – 352 yards and 4 TDs at Foxborough, and 295 yards and 3 TDs in the AFC Championship game. Maybe I feel differently a week form now (after they both play one more game) but today I would be starting Mahomes.

Add Comment

Question 5

I watched Lamar Jackson a lot last year. He looked like a guy with some talent, but one who'd never quite be able to deliver the ball at an NFL level. I figured his floor was Akili Smith, and his ceiling was MAYBE Tyrod Taylor. I passed on him in Round 8 this year, and the owner who snagged him is probably going to win our league. My question is, what did I miss? What clues were there last season, in the offseason, the preseason, etc., that I overlooked, that could have clued me in on the kind of player he was going to be? Did he show real evidence at some point of some day being the type of player he's become? And how can his emergence, and that of Josh Allen, inform me as I evaluate players of similar skill sets in the future? Or, did this season he's having truly just come out of nowhere?

Jacob Wilson (Crandall, TX)

It’s been a magical run the last month, with the Ravens putting up 37 points against New England and over 40 in each of their last three. Pretty remarkable stuff. But I’m not as sold on Lamar Jackson as most. I’m not as confident it can be sustained. I believe that at some point, a defense will come up with a better blueprint for how to play against that style of attack, showing the way for the rest of the league. What will happen at that point? I don’t think Jackson is anything special yet as a passer. That is, if you were to take away his mobility and ask him to play as a pocket passer, I would think he would be a bottom-10 quarterback – I don’t think he’s there yet in terms of vision, reading defenses, touch and accuracy. And I worry about his ability to stay healthy. As often as he’s running, I think it’s only a matter of time before there’s some kind of injury that will dramatically impact his plays. If he sprains a knee or pulls a hamstring, for example, that would have a dramatic impact on how much they wanted to expose him to when he returned. If I were starting a real-life NFL team, I would be interested in selecting Jackson yet before guys like Mahomes, Watson and Wilson.

5 Comments | Add Comment

Question 6

12 team PPR league. We start one QB. Currently I have Matt Ryan starting and Matt Stafford on the bench. Would you drop Matthew Stafford for Daniel Jones or Sam Darnold specifically for weeks 14-16?

Tom Clark (Suffers , NY)

Atlanta is playing at San Francisco in Week 15. You can’t use Matt Ryan in that game. That’s the week I would be targeting. I think you have two options. You can hang onto Stafford and hope he gets healthy. If he’s starting, he might put up top-5 passing numbers that week. The Lions are hosting the Bucs, who have allowed the 2nd-most passing stats in the league – 309 yards per game, with 26 TD passes. This is a viable option. Stafford supposedly is lobbying to come back, and the Lions must feel there’s some chance he will return (otherwise they would place him on IR). The safer route is to just move on Daniel Jones now; the Giants that week are hosting Miami. Jones doesn’t have that same insane upside, but he’s more certain to at least be on the field.

Add Comment

Question 7

Thanks for all the help this year! This week the rankings indicate Jonathon Williams over Leonard Fournette (27.9 points last week) in a standard format, and Williams over Nick Chubb in a PPR format. I am finding it extremely difficult to bench Fournette or Chubb for Williams. Can you please re-assure me that this is the right thing to do?

Marc Ferro (Osseo, MN)

If you want to start those guys, I’m fine with that. They’ve had good seasons. Dance with what brung ya, they say. But I tend to play matchups myself, and after looking at the games, I concluded for Week 13, Williams will be better. He’s been playing really well; he’s running hungry. And the Colts have really been relying on the run recently. They’ve run for 265 and 175 yards in their last two games. I believe T.Y. Hilton will be out again this week, so I think we’re going to get another one of those run-oriented game plans this week, with Williams in the bell-cow role and probably running for 90-100 yards.

1 Comment | Add Comment

Question 8

Feels like Kamara has 100 TDs called back due to penalties. Any idea how many he actually has had called back and who leads the league?

ERIC FEINGOLD (Garden City, NY)

Fun idea. I don’t know of anyone who’s doing it. I think the Rams might be the leaders, they’ve had a couple of long bombs right down to the goal line, and I remember Gerald Everett catching a touchdown at Seattle that was incorrectly marked at the 1-yard line.

Add Comment

Question 9

Please share your latest thoughts regarding 'true' handcuff RBs ("where said player is waiting for an injury to a starter to be elevated into a larger role"). In your October 3 Mailbag you gave this ranking..."Jaylon Samuels, Malcolm Brown, Chase Edmonds, Alexander Mattison, Latavius Murray, Rashaad Penny, Ty Montgomery, Ito Smith, Jordan Wilkins, Tony Pollard, Jamaal Williams, Gus Edwards, Rex Burkhead (Damien Harris wild-card factor), Ryquell Armstead, Kareem Hunt, Giovani Bernard, Ty Johnson, Mike Davis, and Reggie Bonnafon." But many of these are now inured, or have become less valuable. In my standard-scoring league, Brown, Penny, Montgomery, Pollard, Edwards, Burkhead, Armstead, Bernard, Johnson, Davis and Bonnafon are available. My sense is that Armstead, Pollard, Penny and Bonnafon are most valuable, in that order. How much has Henderson eroded Brown's value? How much of McCaffrey's workload would Bonnafon inherit? In Baltimore, is it J.Hill or Edwards? How does the value of Darrel Williams compare? Which others have emerged, and where do they rank?

Dan Shipley (Black Diamond, WA)

This late in the game, handcuffs change. There are only a few games left, so the probability of a player getting to start because of an injury is pretty low. But it’s becoming more likely that a player might be rested. There may be teams that have either clinched playoff spots (or been eliminated from contention) who choose to sit down players. Kansas City could be in that group, and Andy Reid has a history of resting guys. By the time we get to Week 16, it could be clear that Kansas City will win the AFC West but will not be getting a bye. If it shakes out that way, I think we could see plenty of Darrel Williams (and even Darwin Thompson) in their final two games. If the Rams get cashed out, I wonder if they would sit down Todd Gurley for the last two games? They presumably would use some combination of Malcolm Brown and Darrell Henderson. Brown seems to be their No. 2 right now. If there’s a Mark Ingram injury in Baltimore, I expect they would use both Justice Hill and Gus Edwards plenty. They’re already averaging 53 rushing yards per game (with Ingram healthy). Hill has more speed and elusiveness, while Edwards is better at blasting between the tackles.

2 Comments | Add Comment

Question 10

In a must-win scenario ... my QBs are Indy and Carolina ... on waivers are the Jets and Tennessee ... stay put or make a move? If so, whom do I drop and pick up?

Patrick LaMendola (PENFIELD, NY)

For Week 15, I’ve got the Jets finishing with the best team passing projection of those teams. I understand that Cincinnati ranks last in run defense, but I don’t think New York runs it well enough to come in and simply jam the ball between the tackles like a lot of other teams do. I think they’ll need to air it some. Given the matchups, I’m a lot more comfortable with Sam Darnold for these week, rather than the other three guys.

6 Comments | Add Comment

Question 11

In the flex position: Melvin Gordon, Jonathon Williams or Will Fuller?

BRAD NIELSEN (Kansas City, MO)

I don’t think Fuller is in the discussion. I would have no interest in using him against New England’s defense. It’s one of the two running backs, and I think they have similar value (which guy is higher depends on which scoring system you’re using).

Add Comment