Home field is supposed to be an advantage, right? You wouldn't know it from this weekend, when three road teams won and a fourth really should have. Something to keep in mind when examining the divisional games a week from now. Just because a team is playing at home, don't be too certain that they're going to win.
Texans 22, Bills 19. I thought the Bills were going to win this game. After the fact, I still think they should have won this game. Couple of factors in the loss were one, settling for field goals a couple of times, maybe getting a little too conservative with a lead, and two, not finishing a couple of plays on Deshaun Watson, not only the one in overtime that we'll see for years to come, where he somehow avoided a sack and completed the pass that set up the winning points, but a couple of plays in regulation, including a two-point conversion. Make those plays on defense and it's a different story. Be a little more aggressive on offense, and things never get to overtime. Disappointing for those of us who picked the Bills. A squandered opportunity.
Some Josh Allen debate after this game, whether he deserves credit for all the plays he made or criticism for the inexcusable sacks, bizarre lateral-fumble, and plays he didn't make in an overtime loss. I'm on the side that's a fan of Josh Allen and all the craziness. He didn't win, but he left it all out on the field, made some great plays, and wasn't helped by some of the plays he was stuck with. If I'm a Bills fan I'm excited by Allen quarterbacking my team for the next decade. He's not Deshaun Watson, but I think he's going to win some playoff games in years to come. My opinion of Bill O'Brien and the Texans hasn't changed much. I think they get rolled in Kansas City next week.
Titans 20, Patriots 13. I thought the Titans would win but am a little disappointed I didn't bet it more heavily. I had Derrick Henry in a couple of leagues, but also wasted spots on a Patriot or two. New England's offense sputtered for most of the season and it's not stunning they underachieved. And yet, they still could have won this one, even with Henry's monster day, but for a play or two late. One was Julian Edelman dropping an easy pass that would have picked up a first down on New England's final drive (I'm not counting the Pick Six, the game was over then). The way Wes Welker was destroyed in New England for not catching a much more difficult ball in a Super Bowl loss, I"m wondering if Edelman is getting heat there today. But: main takeaway should still be that New England's offense looked mediocre almost all year and Tom Brady might just be washed at this point. But please, teams, fall all over yourself to hire Josh McDaniels. Seriously, why.
Nobody should think that Tennessee has a great chance of going into Baltimore and winning, but no one should rule it out, either. Henry -- and the offensive line, let's not overlook the kind of holes it was opening against New England -- is playing great. Ryan Tannehill and his main receivers are playing well (even though they took a back seat to Henry at New England). Baltimore's defense wasn't a shutdown group. If Tennessee can find a way to slow down Lamar Jackson, maybe watch lots of tape of the Chargers' win in Baltimore last year, who knows. I don't think it will happen, but not a tap-in for the Ravens, either. Both AFC home teams are favored by 9-10 points. I'll take Kansas City and Tennessee.
Vikings 26, Saints 20. Question: if last year they changed the pass interference rules because of the Saints getting rooked in the playoffs, is this the year they change the overtime rules and give each team a possession? We'll see. I've long felt that both teams should get one possession. I understand the arguments against it: Defense should get a stop. Yes, but by overtime the defenses are gassed and offenses have the advantage. They had 60 minutes to win in regulation. Well, yeah, both teams did. I don't know. I think just giving both teams the ball once in overtime should be easy enough. (Incidentally, New Orleans' lone Super Bowl was thanks to an overtime win where their opponent didn't get the ball on offense. The Vikings, as it happens.) I am NOT in favor of the college overtime. I don't need to see that much offense. Just, one overtime possession for each team. It's going to happen eventually, so why not make the change now before yet another team loses without getting the ball.
I overestimated New Orleans and underestimated Minnesota. I thought Minnesota's offense would put up good numbers, and it did, but I ticketed the Saints for 30 -- gave 41-year-old Drew Brees too much credit. But for Taysom Hill, New Orleans might have lost that game by 10 points in regulation. The luster is off the Payton-Brees-Superdome mystique. Winning there isn't such a big deal anymore. I don't give Minnesota much chance in San Francisco next week, but sure looks like I should.
Seahawks 17, Eagles 9. It felt a little wrong when after the game the first guy interviewed by the field reporter was Jadeveon Clowney. Yeah, the pass rush had a great game. But a large part of that was because instead of Carson Wentz on the field the Eagles had creaky old Josh McCown, in the game because of Clowney's cheap shot that knocked Wentz out of the game. I don't know if the Eagles would have won with Wentz (I didn't think they would have) but I do think they'd have scored more. While I'm attacking the sideline choices, she then said to DK Metcalf, "I have to ask, does the fact that you were a second-round pick make this that much sweeter...." No, you didn't have to ask.
I think Seattle was going to win this game regardless. They're a tough team and Russell Wilson will make the plays he needs to, all the time. If Philadelphia had scored more, Seattle probably would have. I did find it interesting when on one goal-line sequence (before the Lynch touchdown) they ran the same damn play that was intercepted in the Super Bowl and almost got it intercepted again. What exactly are they trying to prove there? Just stop. For Philadelphia, nice game for Dallas Goedert. I was very impressed by Miles Sanders down the stretch, even though he did drop a slightly off-target throw on fourth down yesterday to kill a Philly drive. He's starting here next year, and I'm going to be interested in him in fantasy drafts.
So do we have four good games next week? Seattle-Green Bay looks like the best one. In the others, I think the home teams should/will win, comfortably in a couple of them. But getting too comfortable with such thinking is how you get disappointed. Keep an open mind on a road team winning, because at least one and maybe two of them probably will.