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Experts Poll, running backs

Dalvin Cook helps lift Paul Charchian to lead in Experts Poll

Paul Charchian used a trifecta of notable picks – including a dash of home cooking – to outperform the field in the Running Back category of our annual Experts Poll.

Charchian is based in Minneapolis, and he was more willing than all of the other experts to invest in Dalvin Cook, ranking him 7th among running backs. That one paid off huge, with Cook actually finishing even higher (6th) in PPR scoring.

Charchian (LeagueSafe.com) also was the lowest of all 20 experts on a pair of running backs who fell short of expectations, ranking Todd Gurley 13th and not even putting James Conner in his top 20. (That seemed like a typo at the time – I remember sending Charchian an email asking to confirm that it wasn’t an oversight.)

It all paid off nicely, with Charchian finishing with almost 78,000 points. Mike Clay (ESPN), David Dorey (TheHuddle.com) and Scott Pianowski (Yahoo) all finished just over a 1,000 points back.

EXPERTS POLL, RUNNING BACKS
AnalystPoints
Paul Charchian77,794
Mike Clay76,707
David Dorey76,590
Scott Pianowski76,367
Jeff Ratcliffe76,334
Jesse Pantuosco76,186
Brack Varnon75,912
Chris Liss75,853
Lenny Pappano75,281
Alan Satterlee75,249
Bryan Teegardin75,106
Aaron Bland74,951
Michael Nazarek74,936
Tony Holm74,301
John Hansen74,219
Bob Henry73,893
Michael Nease73,874
Cory Bonini73,708
Sam Hendricks72,856
Jody Smith72,054

How the picks are scored can make a big difference. When players miss 4, 8, 12 games (and more) they can dominate the results. So we’ve got a secondary scoring system, when we look at performance when a safety net is placed under each player. The assumption being that if you misfired on a pick in a fantasy draft, you would replace that player with someone else on your roster, or by trade or waivers.

In the alternate scoring system, we take the best non-starting player at each position (assuming a 12-team league) and then look only at performance above his level. Ronald Jones was the 25th-best running back, with 170.3 points in PPR scoring. So at this position, we looked only at how much better than 24 backs were who scored even more than 170.3. (If a player scored 171.3, he would be worth 1 point).

Using the alternative scoring system, Charchian was still the decisive winner. Chris Liss of Rotowire.com was the most notable mover, climbing from 8th to 2nd place. Clay, Pianowski and Dorey all remained in the top 5.

RUNNING BACKS (alt scoring)
AnalystPoints
Paul Charchian25,782
Chris Liss25,065
Mike Clay24,953
Scott Pianowski24,949
David Dorey24,872
Jeff Ratcliffe24,800
Jesse Pantuosco24,661
Lenny Pappano24,544
Brack Varnon24,341
Michael Nazarek24,250
Alan Satterlee24,054
Tony Holm23,825
Bryan Teegardin23,653
John Hansen23,468
Bob Henry23,397
Aaron Bland23,298
Cory Bonini23,099
Sam Hendricks23,020
Michael Nease22,548
Jody Smith22,041

When we complete all of the positions, we will crown an overall champion.

As it stands now, Charchian is the overall leader, with Michael Nease about a 1,000 points back. Both analysts are based in NFC North cities – Charchian in the Twin Cities, and Nease in the Chicago area.

Only two other analysts, Tony Holm (Fantasy Sharks) and Chris Liss (Rotowire) have more than 242,000 points.

EXPERTS POLL, OVERALL (RB-WR-TE-K-D)
AnalystPoints
Paul Charchian245,092
Michael Nease244,010
Tony Holm242,740
Chris Liss242,204
Brack Varnon241,365
Alan Satterlee240,268
Michael Nazarek240,158
Lenny Pappano239,865
David Dorey239,539
Bryan Teegardin239,502
Mike Clay239,383
Scott Pianowski238,779
Sam Hendricks238,179
John Hansen237,755
Jesse Pantuosco237,479
Jeff Ratcliffe237,287
Cory Bonini236,821
Aaron Bland236,798
Jody Smith235,696
Bob Henry234,876

Charchian also leads in the overall in the alternative scoring format, only with Liss and Brack Varnon in the 2nd and 3rd spots.

OVERALL (alt scoring)
AnalystPoints
Paul Charchian51,882
Chris Liss51,088
Brack Varnon50,806
Lenny Pappano50,027
David Dorey50,009
Tony Holm49,747
Scott Pianowski49,326
Michael Nazarek49,302
Mike Clay49,259
Alan Satterlee49,237
Michael Nease49,050
John Hansen48,431
Bryan Teegardin48,404
Jeff Ratcliffe48,179
Jesse Pantuosco47,988
Bob Henry47,747
Sam Hendricks47,704
Aaron Bland47,678
Jody Smith47,310
Cory Bonini47,220

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index