Multiple possibilities for what could happen in Super Bowl LIV. Patrick Mahomes could have a huge, Mahomes-type game. Or San Francisco could run for 200-plus yards, controlling the clock and limiting Kansas City's offense. But at some point, we've got to hone in on specific team numbers, and let the rankings spin out of that.
I settled on 285 passing yards and 2.1 touchdown passes for Kansas City's offense. (Mahomes won't throw 2.1, obviously; what I'm projecting is a slight possibility he throws 3 TDs, but far more likely only 2.) I went with 210 yards and 1.5 touchdowns for San Francisco. That's well below the 249 yards he averaged during the season, but well above the 104 he's averaged in San Francisco's first two playoff games, with the offense killing it on the ground. Even that might be a little high, but the assumption is that San Francisco won't dominate the way it did against Minnesota and Green Bay. So those are the total yardage and passing touchdown numbers that the following projections come from.
TIGHT ENDS
Any list of the top 3 tight ends in the league, fantasy-wise or otherwise, includes Travis Kelce and George Kittle. Maybe top 2, with Ertz seeming to be a little more injury-prone, and more at risk of losing targets and catches to another really good tight end on his own roster. If it's not certain that they'll go 1-2 at the position in every fantasy draft next season, it's pretty close.
In the playoffs, and in a handful of games during the season, Kittle was limited by a powerhouse running game (which his blocking factors into) that kept passing numbers down. He's caught only 4 passes for 35 yards in San Francisco's first two playoff games. But this is still the player that caught 85 balls for 1,053 yards and 5 TDs in 14 games during the season, with several other scores erased by penalty. The passing game will need to do a little more this week, matched up with a very strong Kansas City offense, and Kittle should be the main cog. The matchup looks ordinary for scoring (this defense allowed 5 touchdowns to tight ends during the season), although note a tight end has scored in each of Kansas City's playoff games (Darren Fells and Anthony Firkser). Those guys didn't command the defensive attention that Kittle will, of course (they're also nowhere near as good).
Kelce looks a little more reliable than Kittle. He's in a better passing game, for one, and he's simply more consistently targeted. Including the playoffs he's caught at least 7 passes 10 times in 18 games, and at least 4 on five other occasions. And he was a monster against Houston (10 for 134 with 3 TDs). San Francisco allowed an ordinary 6 touchdowns to tight ends during the season but Jimmy Graham was inches short of another in the NFC Championship, overturned by replay.
Ultimately Kelce winds up a little higher in the rankings due to a favorable overall passing projection. But Kittle is a close 2nd. No other tight end will necessarily catch a pass for either team. Blake Bell caught a touchdown against Houston, but has only 9 other catches in his 17 games. San Francisco's Levine Toilolo is a blocker (2 catches all season). Ross Dwelley caught 4 passes in games Kittle was healthy.
WIDE RECEIVERS
There's a boom-bust quality with Tyreek Hill, as evidenced in his two playoff games (3 for 41 in Kansas City's 51-point performance against Houston, 5 for 67 with 2 TDs a week later). But it's a higher floor than you might expect: 10 TDs in 13 games this season, and at least 5 catches nine times. With the exception of the Houston dud he's gone over 55 yards in 11 straight contests. San Francisco shut down Mike Evans and Odell Beckham early in the season, but they've been vulnerable in their more recent games against top-level wideouts.
TOP WRS VS. 49ERS (SINCE WEEK 12) | |||
---|---|---|---|
Player | No | Yds | TD |
Adams, G.B. | 7 | 43 | 1 |
Thomas, N.O. | 11 | 134 | 1 |
Jones, Atl. | 13 | 134 | 2 |
Woods, LAR | 8 | 117 | 0 |
Lockett, Sea. | 6 | 51 | 1 |
Thielen, Minn. | 5 | 50 | 0 |
Diggs, Minn. | 2 | 57 | 1 |
Adams, G.B. | 9 | 138 | 0 |
San Francisco had some injury issues in some of those games, missing corner Richard Sherman and pass rusher Dee Ford, among others. But little reason to downgrade Hill.
Sammy Watkins is having a nice postseason. He hit on a couple of big plays against Houston (2 for 76), then sealed the win over Tennessee by catching a 60-yard touchdown (7 for 114 in that game). It almost makes you forget how little he did after catching 3 touchdowns following Hill's injury in Week 1. In his next 12 games he caught 43 passes (about 3.5 per game) and didn't score. He didn't go over 50 yards in any of his last seven. He's the clear No. 2 wideout with some big-play potential, but a couple of notches behind Hill.
Mecole Hardman is more likely to hit on a big play, but he could also be shut out entirely. He caught 6 touchdowns during the season, but had more than 2 catches in just one of Hill's healthy games -- none after Week 6. Just 3 for 27 in the postseason. Demarcus Robinson (3 for 35 in the playoffs) is another step down. He had one game with even 45 yards after Week 2.
San Francisco has a nice duo in Deebo Samuel and Emmanuel Sanders, but with the passing game mothballed the last two weeks, production has been harder to come by. Samuel has caught 5 for 88 in those games, which is impressive with San Francisco only passing for 208. They're using him a lot on endarounds: 3 for 49 in the postseason, and 9 for 122 with a pair of scores the last five regular-season games. That possibility of a rushing score (and likelihood of at least some yardage) helps him in the rankings, plus we're expecting more from the passing game in this one.
Sanders is a sketchier option. Two big games (7 catches, 100-plus yards and a touchdown against both Arizona and New Orleans), but just 20 catches and no scores in his other nine most recent games; an average of just 27 yards in those contests. Kendrick Bourne has just as many catches in those contests, and he's a big part of the red zone offense. He's caught 6 touchdowns in his last 11 games, including the playoff win over Minnesota. With those end-zone targets, he's a comparable choice to Sanders -- about as likely as Samuel to get in the end zone.
Full Super Bowl rankings and final score prediction will be posted by tomorrow.
--Andy Richardson