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Justin Jefferson

18-TD wideout should go early next month

It looks like a great draft class of wide receivers. NFL.com's Daniel Jeremiah grades a ridiculous 27 of them as worthy of being drafted in the first three rounds, while Pro Football Focus ranks 10 among its top 40 players. For some perspective, note that a year ago only three were drafted in the top 50.

So there's going to be a lot of new talent in the league at one of the positions fantasy teams care most about. Jerry Jeudy, Henry Ruggs, CeeDee Lamb, Denzel Mims, Justin Jefferson. We may be looking at a group similar to 2014, which gave us Mike Evans, Odell Beckham, Davante Adams and Allen Robinson, among others.

Jefferson was one of Joe Burrow's top targets last year, catching 18 touchdowns. The only player to catch more was another Louisiana State wideout, JaMarr Chase (20), who will return for his junior season. He was one of six college receivers with at least 14 touchdowns last season. When he gets drafted in the first three rounds, he'll be part of a fairly select group of players.

Over the last 15 years, there have been 33 wideouts drafted in the first three rounds who had at least 14 touchdowns in their final college season; a little over two per year. A quick eyeball of those players indicates 11 that went on to be excellent pros (plus a couple that the jury is still out on, like Corey Davis and Anthony Miller). So about 1 in 3. The team that selects Jefferson (or Lamb, or Tee Higgins) will hope to have the next Davante Adams or Cooper Kupp. Not the next Stedman Bailey or Ramses Barden.

14 TD-WIDEOUTS, FINAL YEAR OF COLLEGE (RD 1-3)
YearRdPlayerSchoolNoYdsTD
20133Stedman BaileyWest Virginia114162225
20142Davante AdamsFresno State131171824
20173Carlos HendersonLouisiana Tech82153521
20161Corey ColemanBaylor74136320
20173Cooper KuppEastern Washington117170020
20171Corey DavisWestern Michigan97150019
20171John RossWashington81115019
20091Michael CrabtreeTexas Tech 97116519
2020?Justin JeffersonLouisiana State111154018
20141Brandin CooksOregon State128173018
20131DeAndre HopkinsClemson82140518
20121Justin BlackmonOklahoma State121152218
20182Anthony MillerMemphis96146218
20093Ramses BardenCal Poly-San Luis Obispo67125718
2020?Omar BaylessArkansas State93165317
20173Taywan TaylorWestern Kentucky98173017
20143John BrownPittsburg State (Kan.)61119817
20151Amari CooperAlabama124172716
20051Mike WilliamsSouthern Cal95131416
20082James HardyIndiana79112516
2020?James ProcheSouthern Methodist111122515
2020?CeeDee LambOklahoma62132715
20141Kelvin BenjaminFlorida State54101115
20071Calvin JohnsonGeorgia Tech76120215
20051Braylon EdwardsMichigan97133015
20172Curtis SamuelOhio State7486515
20102Golden TateNotre Dame93149615
2020?Tee HigginsClemson59116714
20161Will FullerNotre Dame62125814
20161Josh DoctsonTexas Christian79132714
20121Kendall WrightBaylor108166314
20051Roddy WhiteAlabama-Birmingham71145214
20192JJ Arcega-WhitesideStanford63105914
20192Andy Isabella Massachusetts102169814
20182James WashingtonOklahoma State74154914
20062Greg JenningsWestern Michigan98125914
20183TreQuan SmithCentral Florida59117114
20103Andre RobertsThe Citadel (S.C.)95133414

Table shows the draft-eligible wideouts who scored 14 touchdowns last season. Not all of those players will be selected in the first three rounds, although at least three probably will be. Really intriguing group of players.

Worth noting that the initial returns on the most recent of those draftees aren't great. Last year JJ Arcega-Whiteside and Andy Isabella didn't make much impact. Too soon to call the previous year's picks (Anthony Miller, James Washington and TreQuan Smith have shown flashes, but too soon to say any will go on to have productive careers).

--Andy Richardson

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