It looks like a great draft class of wide receivers. NFL.com's Daniel Jeremiah grades a ridiculous 27 of them as worthy of being drafted in the first three rounds, while Pro Football Focus ranks 10 among its top 40 players. For some perspective, note that a year ago only three were drafted in the top 50.
So there's going to be a lot of new talent in the league at one of the positions fantasy teams care most about. Jerry Jeudy, Henry Ruggs, CeeDee Lamb, Denzel Mims, Justin Jefferson. We may be looking at a group similar to 2014, which gave us Mike Evans, Odell Beckham, Davante Adams and Allen Robinson, among others.
Jefferson was one of Joe Burrow's top targets last year, catching 18 touchdowns. The only player to catch more was another Louisiana State wideout, JaMarr Chase (20), who will return for his junior season. He was one of six college receivers with at least 14 touchdowns last season. When he gets drafted in the first three rounds, he'll be part of a fairly select group of players.
Over the last 15 years, there have been 33 wideouts drafted in the first three rounds who had at least 14 touchdowns in their final college season; a little over two per year. A quick eyeball of those players indicates 11 that went on to be excellent pros (plus a couple that the jury is still out on, like Corey Davis and Anthony Miller). So about 1 in 3. The team that selects Jefferson (or Lamb, or Tee Higgins) will hope to have the next Davante Adams or Cooper Kupp. Not the next Stedman Bailey or Ramses Barden.
14 TD-WIDEOUTS, FINAL YEAR OF COLLEGE (RD 1-3) | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Rd | Player | School | No | Yds | TD |
2013 | 3 | Stedman Bailey | West Virginia | 114 | 1622 | 25 |
2014 | 2 | Davante Adams | Fresno State | 131 | 1718 | 24 |
2017 | 3 | Carlos Henderson | Louisiana Tech | 82 | 1535 | 21 |
2016 | 1 | Corey Coleman | Baylor | 74 | 1363 | 20 |
2017 | 3 | Cooper Kupp | Eastern Washington | 117 | 1700 | 20 |
2017 | 1 | Corey Davis | Western Michigan | 97 | 1500 | 19 |
2017 | 1 | John Ross | Washington | 81 | 1150 | 19 |
2009 | 1 | Michael Crabtree | Texas Tech | 97 | 1165 | 19 |
2020 | ? | Justin Jefferson | Louisiana State | 111 | 1540 | 18 |
2014 | 1 | Brandin Cooks | Oregon State | 128 | 1730 | 18 |
2013 | 1 | DeAndre Hopkins | Clemson | 82 | 1405 | 18 |
2012 | 1 | Justin Blackmon | Oklahoma State | 121 | 1522 | 18 |
2018 | 2 | Anthony Miller | Memphis | 96 | 1462 | 18 |
2009 | 3 | Ramses Barden | Cal Poly-San Luis Obispo | 67 | 1257 | 18 |
2020 | ? | Omar Bayless | Arkansas State | 93 | 1653 | 17 |
2017 | 3 | Taywan Taylor | Western Kentucky | 98 | 1730 | 17 |
2014 | 3 | John Brown | Pittsburg State (Kan.) | 61 | 1198 | 17 |
2015 | 1 | Amari Cooper | Alabama | 124 | 1727 | 16 |
2005 | 1 | Mike Williams | Southern Cal | 95 | 1314 | 16 |
2008 | 2 | James Hardy | Indiana | 79 | 1125 | 16 |
2020 | ? | James Proche | Southern Methodist | 111 | 1225 | 15 |
2020 | ? | CeeDee Lamb | Oklahoma | 62 | 1327 | 15 |
2014 | 1 | Kelvin Benjamin | Florida State | 54 | 1011 | 15 |
2007 | 1 | Calvin Johnson | Georgia Tech | 76 | 1202 | 15 |
2005 | 1 | Braylon Edwards | Michigan | 97 | 1330 | 15 |
2017 | 2 | Curtis Samuel | Ohio State | 74 | 865 | 15 |
2010 | 2 | Golden Tate | Notre Dame | 93 | 1496 | 15 |
2020 | ? | Tee Higgins | Clemson | 59 | 1167 | 14 |
2016 | 1 | Will Fuller | Notre Dame | 62 | 1258 | 14 |
2016 | 1 | Josh Doctson | Texas Christian | 79 | 1327 | 14 |
2012 | 1 | Kendall Wright | Baylor | 108 | 1663 | 14 |
2005 | 1 | Roddy White | Alabama-Birmingham | 71 | 1452 | 14 |
2019 | 2 | JJ Arcega-Whiteside | Stanford | 63 | 1059 | 14 |
2019 | 2 | Andy Isabella | Massachusetts | 102 | 1698 | 14 |
2018 | 2 | James Washington | Oklahoma State | 74 | 1549 | 14 |
2006 | 2 | Greg Jennings | Western Michigan | 98 | 1259 | 14 |
2018 | 3 | TreQuan Smith | Central Florida | 59 | 1171 | 14 |
2010 | 3 | Andre Roberts | The Citadel (S.C.) | 95 | 1334 | 14 |
Table shows the draft-eligible wideouts who scored 14 touchdowns last season. Not all of those players will be selected in the first three rounds, although at least three probably will be. Really intriguing group of players.
Worth noting that the initial returns on the most recent of those draftees aren't great. Last year JJ Arcega-Whiteside and Andy Isabella didn't make much impact. Too soon to call the previous year's picks (Anthony Miller, James Washington and TreQuan Smith have shown flashes, but too soon to say any will go on to have productive careers).
--Andy Richardson