The Buccaneers are among the teams that could possibly bring in a new starting quarterback, and I’m of the school of thought it will play out that way. Bruce Arians has consistently been throwing shade on Jameis Winston over the last few months.
Winston is a fearless gunslinger. Or maybe rather than “fearless”, a better word might be “unaware.” Even if he’s got 2-3 interceptions, he’ll just keep trying to come up with big plays.
It’s an approach that helped him go over 5,000 yards last year, but he also threw a league-high 30 interceptions, including 7 that were returned for touchdowns. That was the driver behind the Bucs finishing just 7-9. With better quarterback play, they might have contended for a playoff spot.
Arians criticized Winston throughout the season, and he was at it again last week in Indianapolis.
“I think there are about 10 [interceptions] that weren’t his fault,” Arians said, via the JoeBucsFan website. “But I would have liked to have seen a better December. You know, that’s usually, that end of November and December, it starts clicking for us. It did for Carson [Palmer] in Arizona. It did for Ben [Roethlisberger]. It did for everybody. But [Jameis] made some mistakes in December that I didn’t like.”
Winston threw 12 interceptions in the first half of last season, then another 18 in his final eight starts, making him the league’s first quarterback to come up with a 30-30 – 30 touchdowns and 30 picks.
Arians’ complaint that Winston didn’t improve late in the year, I think, is notable. Carson Palmer poked around with the same concept during Super Bowl week. He says Winston would be a lot more confident and comfortable next year, with a year of experience in the offense (Palmer thinks the Bucs should re-sign him).
Palmer struggled initially under Arians, then really came on. In the second half of Arians’ first season in Arizona, Palmer averaged 56 more passing yards per game, with 4 more touchdowns and 6 fewer interceptions.
But despite what Arians said, none of the other three notable quarterbacks who’ve worked under him have gotten better late in their first year. They’ve all gotten at least slightly worse. Ben Roethlisberger in 2007, Andrew Luck in 2012 and Winston last year.
| ARIANS, FIRST-YEAR QUARTERBACKS | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Yds | Pct | TD | Int | Rating |
| 2007 | Roethlisberger (G 1-8) | 218 | 66% | 20 | 6 | 111.9 |
| 2007 | Roethlisberger (G 9-15) | 202 | 65% | 12 | 5 | 95.9 |
| 2012 | Luck (G 1-8) | 301 | 57% | 10 | 8 | 79.0 |
| 2012 | Luck (G 9-16) | 246 | 51% | 13 | 10 | 73.5 |
| 2013 | Palmer (G 1-8) | 239 | 61% | 10 | 14 | 72.4 |
| 2013 | Palmer (G 9-16) | 295 | 65% | 14 | 8 | 95.3 |
| 2019 | Winston (G 1-8) | 301 | 59% | 16 | 12 | 85.2 |
| 2019 | Winston (G 9-16) | 338 | 62% | 17 | 18 | 83.4 |
Take from that what you will. I will be interested in whoever winds up under center for the Bucs next year – that’s a good offense. For now, my leaning is that they’ll be bringing in somebody new.
I think it’s possible Winston will be back. Finances will play a role, and the Bucs would have to find someone they like better. Philip Rivers and Tom Brady have a lot more smarts and experience, but neither is a great deep-ball thrower, which doesn’t really mesh with Arians’ system. And neither has much mobility, which could be a problem with Tampa Bay’s leaky offensive line.
—Ian Allan