Factoid

March 05, 2020

Run-only backs

Pass-catching key for running backs in PPR format

Admittedly, it’s ridiculously early. But I’ve got three running backs that I think will be overdrafted in a lot of leagues: Marlon Mack, Sony Michel and Carlos Hyde.

They’re all credible players. They all ran for around 1,000 yards last year. And they’ll probably all be expected to lead their teams in rushing touchdowns. They were expected to get most of the goal-line carries with their teams on most Sundays last year.

But most fantasy scoring systems include a pass-catching component, and these backs have been ridiculously poor in that arena. They’re not particularly good in that capacity, and their teams realize it, not tending to use them much at all in the passing game. Mack last year caught only 14 passes in his 14 games. Both Michel and Hyde averaged less than a catch per game.

Among running backs who played at least half of last year, 53 averaged at least 6 receiving yards per game last year. Mack, Michel (pictured) and Hyde weren’t in that group. (Hyde didn’t even average 3 yards per game).

Here’s where they rank, using PPR scoring (1 for every 10 yards, plus 1 for each catch). In this chart, I’ve got designations on running backs who were used primarily on third downs or in change-of-pace roles.

RECEIVING PRODUCTION, RUNNING BACKS
Rk	Player	St	No	Rec	Points
1.	Christian McCaffrey, Car.	16	7.3	62.8	13.5
2.	Austin Ekeler (C), LAC	12	5.7	60.3	11.7
3.	Alvin Kamara, N.O.	14	5.8	38.1	9.6
4.	James White (3rd), N.E.	15	4.8	43.0	9.1
5.	Leonard Fournette, Jac.	15	5.1	34.8	8.5
6.	Kareem Hunt (C), Cle.	8	4.6	35.6	8.2
7.	David Johnson, Ariz.	8	3.9	40.4	7.9
8.	Tarik Cohen (3rd), Chi.	16	4.9	28.5	7.8
9.	Dalvin Cook, Min.	14	3.8	37.1	7.5
10.	LeVeon Bell, NYJ	15	4.4	30.7	7.5
11.	Saquon Barkley, NYG	13	4.0	33.7	7.4
12.	Chris Thompson (3rd), Was.	11	3.8	34.4	7.3
13.	Devonta Freeman, Atl.	14	4.2	29.3	7.1
14.	Miles Sanders, Phil.	16	3.1	31.8	6.3
15.	Aaron Jones, G.B.	16	3.1	29.6	6.0
16.	Ezekiel Elliott, Dall.	16	3.4	26.3	6.0
17.	Melvin Gordon, LAC	12	3.5	24.7	6.0
18.	James Conner, Pitt.	10	3.4	25.1	5.9
19.	Kenyan Drake, Ariz.	8	3.5	21.4	5.6
20.	Jaylen Samuels (3rd), Pitt.	14	3.4	21.8	5.5
21.	Duke Johnson (3rd), Hou.	16	2.8	25.6	5.3
22.	Devin Singletary, Buff.	10	2.9	19.4	4.8
23.	Nyheim Hines (3rd), Ind.	16	2.8	20.0	4.8
24.	Damien Williams, K.C.	11	2.7	19.4	4.7
25.	Jamaal Williams (C), G.B.	14	2.8	18.1	4.6
26.	Royce Freeman (C), Den.	16	2.7	16.0	4.3
27.	Jalen Richard (3rd), Oak.	16	2.3	20.2	4.3
28.	Chris Carson, Sea.	15	2.5	17.7	4.2
29.	Rex Burkhead (C), N.E.	13	2.1	21.5	4.2
30.	Nick Chubb, Cle.	16	2.3	17.4	4.0
31.	Joe Mixon, Cin.	16	2.2	17.9	4.0
32.	Dare Ogunbowale (3rd), T.B.	16	2.2	17.9	4.0
33.	Ronald Jones, T.B.	16	1.9	19.3	3.9
34.	LeSean McCoy (C), K.C.	13	2.2	13.9	3.5
35.	Todd Gurley, LAR	15	2.1	13.8	3.4
36.	Phillip Lindsay, Den.	16	2.2	12.3	3.4
37.	Mark Ingram, Balt.	15	1.7	16.5	3.4
38.	Giovani Bernard (3rd), Cin.	16	1.9	14.6	3.3
39.	Raheem Mostert, S.F.	9	1.3	19.2	3.3
40.	Matt Breida, S.F.	9	1.8	12.2	3.0
41.	Kerryon Johnson, Det.	8	1.3	15.9	2.8
42.	Josh Jacobs, Oak.	13	1.5	12.8	2.8
43.	Tevin Coleman (C), S.F.	14	1.5	12.9	2.8
44.	David Montgomery, Chi.	16	1.6	11.6	2.7
45.	Derrick Henry, Ten.	15	1.2	13.7	2.6
46.	Dion Lewis (3rd), Ten.	15	1.6	9.7	2.6
47.	Latavius Murray (C), N.O.	14	1.4	10.6	2.5
48.	Adrian Peterson, Was.	15	1.1	9.5	2.1
49.	Jordan Howard, Phil.	9	1.1	7.7	1.9
50.	Peyton Barber, T.B.	16	1.0	7.2	1.7
51.	Tony Pollard (C), Dall.	15	1.0	7.1	1.7
52.	Rashaad Penny (C), Sea.	10	.8	8.3	1.6
53.	Marlon Mack, Ind.	14	1.0	5.9	1.6
54.	Alexander Mattison (C), Min.	13	.8	6.3	1.4
55.	Sony Michel, N.E.	16	.8	5.9	1.3
56.	Carlos Hyde, Hou.	16	.6	2.6	.9
57.	Gus Edwards (C), Balt.	15	.4	2.9	.7

Receiving production isn’t everything, of course. But it count. When you blend the receiving and rushing production together, none of those running backs ranked in the top-25 in per-game PPR production. Hyde and Michel didn’t even rank in the top 35.

I’m not promising all of these backs will be ranked outside my preseason top 25 at the position. Let’s see what happens in free agency and the draft. But my hunch is I’ll have these running backs ranked lower than where most are expecting.

PER-GAME PPR PRODUCTION, RUNNING BACKS
Rk	Player	St	Run	Rec	ToYds	TD	PPR
1.	Christian McCaffrey, Car.	16	86.7	62.8	149.5	1.21	29.5
2.	Dalvin Cook, Min.	14	81.1	37.1	118.1	.93	21.2
3.	Derrick Henry, Ten.	15	102.7	13.7	116.4	1.20	20.0
4.	Kenyan Drake, Ariz.	8	80.4	21.4	101.8	1.04	19.9
5.	Aaron Jones, G.B.	16	67.8	29.6	97.4	1.19	19.9
6.	Ezekiel Elliott, Dall.	16	84.8	26.3	111.1	.88	19.7
7.	Saquon Barkley, NYG	13	77.2	33.7	110.8	.62	18.8
8.	Austin Ekeler (C), LAC	12	28.1	60.3	88.3	.58	18.0
9.	Alvin Kamara, N.O.	14	56.9	38.1	95.0	.43	17.9
10.	Leonard Fournette, Jac.	15	76.8	34.8	111.6	.20	17.4
11.	Mark Ingram, Balt.	15	67.9	16.5	84.3	1.04	16.4
12.	Nick Chubb, Cle.	16	93.4	17.4	110.8	.50	16.3
13.	Chris Carson, Sea.	15	82.0	17.7	99.7	.60	16.0
14.	Raheem Mostert, S.F.	9	66.6	19.2	85.8	1.00	15.9
15.	Melvin Gordon, LAC	12	51.0	24.7	75.7	.75	15.6
16.	David Johnson, Ariz.	8	37.8	40.4	78.1	.63	15.4
17.	Todd Gurley, LAR	15	57.1	13.8	70.9	.96	14.9
18.	Josh Jacobs, Oak.	13	88.5	12.8	101.2	.54	14.9
19.	James Conner, Pitt.	10	46.4	25.1	71.5	.70	14.8
20.	LeVeon Bell, NYJ	15	52.6	30.7	83.3	.29	14.5
21.	Devonta Freeman, Atl.	14	46.9	29.3	76.1	.43	14.4
22.	Devin Singletary, Buff.	10	69.2	19.4	88.6	.40	14.2
23.	Joe Mixon, Cin.	16	71.1	17.9	89.0	.50	14.1
24.	Miles Sanders, Phil.	16	51.1	31.8	82.9	.40	13.8
25.	James White (3rd), N.E.	15	17.5	43.0	60.5	.42	13.4
26.	Damien Williams, K.C.	11	45.3	19.4	64.6	.64	13.0
27.	Marlon Mack, Ind.	14	77.9	5.9	83.8	.60	13.0
28.	Kareem Hunt (C), Cle.	8	22.4	35.6	58.0	.38	12.7
29.	Jordan Howard, Phil.	9	58.3	7.7	66.0	.78	12.4
30.	Phillip Lindsay, Den.	16	63.2	12.3	75.4	.44	12.4
31.	David Montgomery, Chi.	16	55.6	11.6	67.1	.44	10.9
32.	Kerryon Johnson, Det.	8	50.4	15.9	66.3	.50	10.9
33.	Ronald Jones, T.B.	16	45.3	19.3	64.6	.38	10.6
34.	Jamaal Williams (C), G.B.	14	32.9	18.1	50.9	.43	10.5
35.	Matt Breida, S.F.	9	60.2	12.2	72.4	.22	10.4
36.	Tarik Cohen (3rd), Chi.	16	13.3	28.5	41.8	.19	10.2
37.	Adrian Peterson, Was.	15	59.9	9.5	69.3	.33	10.1
38.	Carlos Hyde, Hou.	16	66.9	2.6	69.5	.38	9.8
39.	Duke Johnson (3rd), Hou.	16	25.6	25.6	51.3	.31	9.8
40.	Tevin Coleman (C), S.F.	14	38.9	12.9	51.7	.50	9.7
41.	Sony Michel, N.E.	16	57.0	5.9	62.9	.44	9.7
42.	LeSean McCoy (C), K.C.	13	35.8	13.9	49.7	.38	9.4
43.	Royce Freeman (C), Den.	16	31.0	16.0	47.0	.25	8.9
44.	Chris Thompson (3rd), Was.	11	12.5	34.4	46.9	.00	8.5
45.	Rex Burkhead (C), N.E.	13	23.2	21.5	44.7	.23	7.9
46.	Rashaad Penny (C), Sea.	10	37.0	8.3	45.3	.40	7.7
47.	Jaylen Samuels (3rd), Pitt.	14	12.5	21.8	34.3	.14	7.6
48.	Nyheim Hines (3rd), Ind.	16	12.4	20.0	32.4	.25	7.5
49.	Peyton Barber, T.B.	16	29.4	7.2	36.6	.46	7.4
50.	Latavius Murray (C), N.O.	14	29.7	10.6	40.4	.14	6.3
51.	Tony Pollard (C), Dall.	15	30.3	7.1	37.5	.22	6.1
52.	Alexander Mattison (C), Min.	13	35.5	6.3	41.8	.08	5.4
53.	Gus Edwards (C), Balt.	15	38.7	2.9	41.6	.13	5.4
54.	Jalen Richard (3rd), Oak.	16	9.1	20.2	29.3	.00	5.2
55.	Dare Ogunbowale (3rd), T.B.	16	1.1	17.9	18.9	.13	4.8
56.	Giovani Bernard (3rd), Cin.	16	10.6	14.6	25.3	.00	4.4
57.	Dion Lewis (3rd), Ten.	15	9.4	9.7	19.1	.07	3.9

—Ian Allan

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