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Joe Burrow

College production seldom translates

Joe Burrow threw 60 touchdowns for Louisiana State last year. He'll almost certainly be the No. 1 overall pick, and probably a Week 1 starter in Cincinnati. Should fantasy teams expect him to take the NFL by storm?

It's possible, of course, but probably better to see it on an NFL field before investing in it, at least in redraft leagues.

I took a look at all the quarterbacks who put up big passing touchdown totals in a college season -- at least 40 touchdowns. Burrow is one of 46 guys who have done it. That includes eight guys the last three years, three of whom were first-rounders (Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray and Dwayne Haskins) and two who will be (Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa), plus second-rounder Drew Lock.

Of those 46 players, only seven -- so far -- have thrown even 25 touchdown passes in a season. Murray, Lock and Haskins have plenty of time to join that group, but not a given that all three will ever do so.

Quarterbacks from that group who have thrown 25 touchdowns in a season are in bold, with their NFL career high listed.

NCAA PASSING TOUCHDOWN LEADERS
Year Player CollegeTD NFL
2019Joe BurrowLouisiana State60
2006Colt BrennanHawaii58
1990David KlinglerHouston54
2003B.J. SymonsTexas Tech52
2018Dwayne HaskinsOhio State50
2013Derek CarrFresno State50
2008Sam BradfordOklahoma50
2014Brandon DoughtyWestern Kentucky49
2019Anthony GordonWashington State48
2015Brandon DoughtyWestern Kentucky48
2011Case KeenumHouston48
2007Graham HarrellTexas Tech48
2007Paul SmithTulsa47
1980Jim McMahonBrigham Young47
2015Matt JohnsonBowling Green State46
2008David JohnsonTulsa46
2001David CarrFresno State46
1998Tim RattayLouisiana Tech46
1989Andre WareHouston46
2016Logan WoodsideToledo45
2008Graham HarrellTexas Tech45
2002Kliff KingsburyTexas Tech45
2017Drew LockMissouri44
2009Case KeenumHouston44
2008Chase ClementRice44
2008Case KeenumHouston44
2018Tua TagovailoaAlabama43
2017Baker MayfieldOklahoma4327
2016Jake BrowningWashington43
2015Jared GoffCalifornia4332
2011Kellen MooreBoise State43
2018Kyler MurrayOklahoma42
2014Marcus MariotaOregon4226
2012Geno SmithWest Virginia42
1997Chad PenningtonMarshall42
2019Justin FieldsOhio State41
2016Ryan HigginsLouisiana Tech41
2016Patrick MahomesTexas Tech4155
2016Deshaun WatsonClemson4126
2004Omar JacobsBowling Green State41
1990Ty DetmerBrigham Young41
2016Baker MayfieldOklahoma4027
2014Rakeem CatoMarshall40
2013Jameis WinstonFlorida State4033
2007Andre WoodsonKentucky40
2003Jason WhiteOklahoma40

Patrick Mahomes is the marquee guy there. Jameis Winston threw 33 last year, Jared Goff threw 32 a couple of years back, and good chance Deshaun Watson -- maybe Baker Mayfield -- makes it at some point.

But some got all excited about Dwayne Haskins (who Burrow transferred from Ohio State to get away from) throwing 50 touchdowns in college. A year later, it's clear that putting up big numbers in the NFL is far from certain from him. So we'll see on Burrow. Great college player, but he'll be starting at square one when he hits the NFL.

--Andy Richardson

Fantasy Index