You’ve undoubtedly heard the spiel by now: Home runs are up, and stolen bases are down, so you need to get your steals early on draft day. While it’s true that stolen bases are harder to find than they were just a few years ago, the situation isn’t as dire as many people want you to think. There are still plenty of cheap speed sources available in the later rounds of your draft. You just have to know where to look. Using NFBC ADP (from Feb. 1 to today), here’s a look at some speed options who are available at pick 250 and beyond.
Jon Berti, 3B, SS, OF, Marlins – 250 NFBC ADP
Berti doesn’t have an everyday job lined up, but he’s proven that he doesn’t need an everyday gig to make an impact on the basepaths. In just 95 games between the majors and minors in 2019, Berti racked up 22 stolen bases while also popping 10 homers. Dating back to 2011, he’s swiped 22 or more bases in eight straight campaigns. Even at age 30, Berti still sported the 12th-fasted Sprint Speed score in baseball (29.8 ft/sec) last season (it was also the highest Sprint Speed score on this list). The Marlins intend to use Berti all over the field this season, and his multi-position eligibility makes him a perfect speed option for those in leagues with daily moves.
Nick Madrigal, 2B, White Sox – 254 ADP
In terms of stolen-base upside, Madrigal might be tops on this list. As his 5-foot-7 frame suggests, Madrigal offers next to no power, but he has speed to burn and is elite at making contact. In today’s high-strikeout environment, consider that, across three different levels in 2019, Madrigal struck out just 16 times in 476 at-bats. Sixteen. He also hit a combined .311 with 35 stolen bases. Madrigal, the fourth overall pick in 2018, will likely open the season in the minors, but he could take over at second base early in the season. He could also take over as the White Sox’s leadoff hitter, which would boost his value even more.
Sam Hilliard (pictured above), OF, Rockies – 266 ADP
While Madrigal is a batting average/speed guy, Hilliard offers a more robust skill set. The Rockies slugger hit .262/.335/.558 with 35 homers and 22 steals at Triple-A in 2019 before batting .273/.356/.649 with seven homers and two steals in 87 PAs with the Rockies in August and September. The Coors Field power is no doubt intriguing, but it’s the steals potential that really completes the package. In addition to the 24 total steals in 2019, Hilliard swiped a combined 90 bags from 2016 to 2018. The 26-year-old is competing for playing time in left field with Ian Desmond and Raimel Tapia, but if he can secure regular at-bats, the fantasy potential is immense.
Trent Grisham, OF, Padres – 311 ADP
Grisham has his sights set on the Padres’ center field job, and there’s significant upside here if he wins the gig this spring. The former first-round pick has consistently posted elite walk rates in the minors with an intriguing blend of ...
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... power and speed. He clubbed 31 dingers and stole 13 bases across three levels in 2019. Those 13 steals don’t necessarily jump off the page, but Grisham stole 25+ bags twice in the minors, including 37 bags in 2017, suggesting there could be more steals upside as he gets more acclimated to the big leagues.
Jarrod Dyson, OF, Pirates – 406 ADP
At 35 years old, Dyson’s wheels aren’t what they used to be. Even so, he’s coming off a season in which he swiped 30 bases for the Diamondbacks in just 452 plate appearances. Now Dyson is with the Pirates, a team that, according to manager Derek Shelton, will be aggressive on the basepaths this season. As the Pirates’ leadoff man, another 30-plus steals are a solid bet. Mallex Smith, who is projected to hit at the bottom of Seattle’s lineup, currently has an ADP of 175. If you’re short on speed, bypass Smith and draft Dyson over 200 picks later.
Cameron Maybin, OF, Tigers – 533 ADP
Maybin may look like a pretty boring fantasy option, but he’s actually a pretty sneaky option who is being completely ignored in most drafts. In addition to posting a terrific 11.2% walk rate in 2019, Maybin also whacked 11 homers and stole nine bases in just 269 plate appearances with the Yankees. Even at 32 years old, his 28.7 Sprint Speed score last year was the same as Christian Yelich and Tim Anderson, so there’s little reason to think the steals will fall off. Now with the Tigers, Maybin should serve as Detroit’s leadoff man and has the potential to flirt with a 20/20 season. Not bad for a guy going after pick 500.
Cole Tucker, 2B/SS, Pirates – 591 ADP
Tucker is a bit off the fantasy radar right now after he hit just .211/.266/.361 in 56 games with the Pirates last season, but his minor league track record suggests plenty of stolen base upside. The former first-round pick swiped 47 bags between High-A and Double-A in 2017 and 35 bases at Double-A in 2018. With strong plate skills, great speed, and excellent defense, Tucker could push for playing time at second base early on this season, with Adam Frazier potentially shifting to the outfield. Tucker is already making a strong impression in spring training, hitting .280/.370/.560 with a pair of homers and a steal in his first 11 games.
-Mike Sheets