Philip Rivers has agreed to a one-year deal with the Colts, and I like the fit. They’ve got the right line and the right system for him to probably punch out one more season with top-10 passing numbers.
Per reports, it’s a one-year deal worth $25 million – a reasonable price tag in today’s day and age.
Frank Reich, I think, is the key. He’s got a good feel for how to put together a passing game. His teams have been good in the red zone, and the ball tends to come out quickly, saving the quarterback wear and tear. With the Colts also having one of the better offensive lines, this is a very good destination for Rivers.
Reports suggest the Colts were never interested in Tom Brady. It’s unclear why. Reich and Rivers have worked together in the past, which might have been a factor. Or perhaps they didn’t like Brady’s pricetag.
After a good start, the Colts didn’t have a great season last year. They finished with only 22 TD passes and averaged only 207 passing yards. But only three teams have thrown at least 38 touchdown passes in the last three years, and Reich’s fingerprints are on two of those offenses – the 2017 Eagles and the 2018 Colts.
| TEAMS WITH 30 TD PASSES (last 3 yrs) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Team | Yards | TD | Int |
| 2018 | Kansas City | 320.4 | 50 | 12 |
| 2018 | Indianapolis | 287.2 | 39 | 15 |
| 2017 | Philadelphia | 247.9 | 38 | 9 |
| 2019 | Baltimore | 209.4 | 37 | 8 |
| 2018 | Tampa Bay | 334.9 | 36 | 26 |
| 2018 | Atlanta | 309.3 | 36 | 7 |
| 2019 | New Orleans | 276.9 | 36 | 6 |
| 2018 | Pittsburgh | 323.4 | 35 | 17 |
| 2018 | Seattle | 215.5 | 35 | 7 |
| 2017 | Seattle | 248.7 | 34 | 12 |
| 2019 | Tampa Bay | 320.4 | 33 | 30 |
| 2018 | New Orleans | 260.9 | 33 | 7 |
| 2018 | LA Rams | 295.6 | 32 | 12 |
| 2017 | New England | 288.7 | 32 | 8 |
| 2018 | • LA Chargers | 269.8 | 32 | 12 |
| 2019 | Seattle | 256.9 | 31 | 6 |
| 2019 | Dallas | 306.4 | 30 | 11 |
| 2019 | Kansas City | 293.1 | 30 | 5 |
| 2018 | Minnesota | 268.6 | 30 | 10 |
| 2019 | NY Giants | 254.4 | 30 | 17 |
And quarterbacks don’t tend to get sacked when they’re operating in Reich’s offense. The Colts allowed a league-high 56 sacks in 2017. In Reich’s first season, he lowered that down to a league-low 18 sacks.
The Colts allowed 32 sacks last year, also a better-than-average total. Rivers should have time to throw, putting him in play for possible top-10 passing numbers.
As I pointed out a few days ago, Rivers can’t run at all. That hurts his fantasy value for sure. But he should be an above-average passer.
| LOWEST SACK TOTALS (last 3 years) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Team | Yards | TD | Int | Sack |
| 2018 | Indianapolis | 287.2 | 39 | 15 | 18 |
| 2017 | • LA Chargers | 284.4 | 28 | 11 | 18 |
| 2018 | New Orleans | 260.9 | 33 | 7 | 20 |
| 2017 | New Orleans | 270.9 | 23 | 8 | 20 |
| 2018 | New England | 275.3 | 29 | 11 | 21 |
| 2019 | LA Rams | 291.8 | 22 | 17 | 22 |
| 2019 | Dallas | 306.4 | 30 | 11 | 23 |
| 2018 | Pittsburgh | 323.4 | 35 | 17 | 24 |
| 2017 | Pittsburgh | 283.4 | 29 | 15 | 24 |
| 2017 | Oakland | 235.1 | 23 | 14 | 24 |
| 2017 | Atlanta | 259.1 | 21 | 12 | 24 |
| 2017 | Jacksonville | 232.3 | 21 | 13 | 24 |
| 2019 | New Orleans | 276.9 | 36 | 6 | 25 |
| 2019 | Kansas City | 293.1 | 30 | 5 | 25 |
| 2018 | Kansas City | 320.4 | 50 | 12 | 26 |
| 2017 | Minnesota | 245.6 | 25 | 8 | 27 |
| 2017 | Baltimore | 202.2 | 20 | 13 | 27 |
| 2019 | Baltimore | 209.4 | 37 | 8 | 28 |
| 2017 | LA Rams | 251.4 | 28 | 7 | 28 |
| 2019 | Minnesota | 233.1 | 26 | 8 | 28 |
| 2019 | New England | 259.6 | 25 | 9 | 28 |
| 2019 | Oakland | 256.9 | 22 | 8 | 29 |
| 2018 | Carolina | 254.4 | 28 | 16 | 32 |
| 2017 | Dallas | 207.9 | 22 | 13 | 32 |
| 2019 | Indianapolis | 207.1 | 22 | 10 | 32 |
| 2018 | Baltimore | 231.8 | 18 | 9 | 32 |
| 2019 | Pittsburgh | 200.9 | 18 | 19 | 32 |
—Ian Allan