It's happening. Tom Brady is leaving the New England Patriots and signing up with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. No truth to the idea that they're changing their name to the Tom Brady Buccaneers, but some enterprising company will probably make up a hat or shirt along those lines. Now what?
I've grudgingly settled on the idea that Brady could be fantasy viable. There are just too many instances of old-man quarterbacks changing teams and putting up strong numbers in their new homes to ignore. Peyton Manning, Brett Favre and Joe Montana weren't as old as Brady when they did so, but it's a new era and we know that Brady keeps himself in shape. He'll absolutely work hard all offseason to get in the best shape possible, proving to everyone he can still play at a high level. Motivation and determination won't be a problem.
In Tampa Bay, his weapons are awesome, he's got a really smart offensive coach, and there will be a couple of pretty weak defenses in his own division. I'm not betting against Brady putting up very good passing numbers -- not top 5 or maybe not top 10; I don't think he'll throw for 5,000 yards, and there won't be any rushing production. But he should probably be one of the first 15 quarterbacks drafted in fantasy leagues.
The big question for me is whether Mike Evans and Chris Godwin will be as awesome with Brady doing his thing, spreading it around to all his targets, as they were with Jameis Winston last year. Tampa Bay's passing game will likely be a hybrid of what Arians has in mind and a system Brady is comfortable with -- they're not going to shoehorn an aged passer into a completely unfamiliar system. Brady will likely have a capable No. 3 and a couple of viable tight ends to throw to, and the team will likely upgrade at running back, perhaps with a James White type of option. (I heard a Todd Gurley trade rumor yesterday; that would be interesting.)
Last year Evans and Godwin were both top-15 fantasy wideouts. Can that happen again?
Table below shows Brady's top 2 wideouts in each of his 19 Patriots seasons. (I'm including 2008, which he missed all of; fair to say Randy Moss and Wes Welker would have done as well with Brady that season as they did with Matt Cassel.) In his 19-year Patriots career (as a starter), he had multiple top-25 fantasy wideouts five times -- 2007, 2008, 2009, 2012 and 2014. So the last time was six years ago.
Top-15 wideouts over that span are in bold; top-25 guys are in italics.
| BRADY'S TOP WIDEOUTS, 2001-2019 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Rec | Yds | TD | PPR | Rk |
| 2019 | Julian Edelman | 100 | 1117 | 6 | 258.8 | 7 |
| 2019 | Phillip Dorsett | 29 | 397 | 5 | 100.8 | 71 |
| 2018 | Julian Edelman | 74 | 850 | 6 | 207.9 | 21 |
| 2018 | Chris Hogan | 35 | 532 | 3 | 106.2 | 70 |
| 2017 | Brandin Cooks | 65 | 1082 | 7 | 221.2 | 15 |
| 2017 | Danny Amendola | 61 | 659 | 2 | 138.9 | 44 |
| 2016 | Julian Edelman | 98 | 1106 | 3 | 234.3 | 14 |
| 2016 | Chris Hogan | 38 | 680 | 4 | 130.9 | 60 |
| 2015 | Julian Edelman | 61 | 692 | 7 | 174.5 | 35 |
| 2015 | Danny Amendola | 65 | 648 | 3 | 150.7 | 46 |
| 2014 | Julian Edelman | 92 | 972 | 4 | 228.6 | 15 |
| 2014 | Brandon LaFell | 74 | 953 | 7 | 212.6 | 22 |
| 2013 | Julian Edelman | 105 | 1056 | 6 | 251.7 | 14 |
| 2013 | Danny Amendola | 54 | 633 | 2 | 129.4 | 55 |
| 2012 | Wes Welker | 118 | 1354 | 6 | 291.4 | 7 |
| 2012 | Brandon Lloyd | 74 | 911 | 4 | 195.1 | 25 |
| 2011 | Wes Welker | 122 | 1569 | 9 | 335.9 | 2 |
| 2011 | Deion Branch | 51 | 702 | 5 | 151.2 | 44 |
| 2010 | Wes Welker | 86 | 848 | 7 | 212.8 | 18 |
| 2010 | Brandon Tate | 24 | 432 | 3 | 103.4 | 71 |
| 2009 | Randy Moss | 83 | 1264 | 13 | 289.4 | 2 |
| 2009 | Wes Welker | 123 | 1348 | 4 | 285.4 | 4 |
| 2008 | Wes Welker | 111 | 1165 | 3 | 250.1 | 10 |
| 2008 | Randy Moss | 69 | 1008 | 11 | 235.8 | 12 |
| 2007 | Randy Moss | 98 | 1493 | 23 | 385.3 | 1 |
| 2007 | Wes Welker | 112 | 1175 | 8 | 280.9 | 10 |
| 2006 | Reche Caldwell | 61 | 760 | 4 | 163.5 | 34 |
| 2006 | Troy Brown | 43 | 384 | 4 | 109.2 | 64 |
| 2005 | Deion Branch | 78 | 998 | 5 | 207.8 | 22 |
| 2005 | David Givens | 59 | 738 | 2 | 146.1 | 41 |
| 2004 | David Patten | 44 | 800 | 7 | 166.5 | 34 |
| 2004 | David Givens | 56 | 874 | 3 | 161.4 | 36 |
| 2003 | Deion Branch | 57 | 803 | 3 | 156.4 | 36 |
| 2003 | David Givens | 34 | 510 | 6 | 121.0 | 53 |
| 2002 | Troy Brown | 97 | 890 | 3 | 207.4 | 23 |
| 2002 | David Patten | 61 | 824 | 5 | 174.0 | 36 |
| 2001 | Troy Brown | 101 | 1199 | 5 | 272.0 | 6 |
| 2001 | David Patten | 51 | 749 | 4 | 169.6 | 35 |
A more concerning take on the numbers is that Brady has had one top-10 fantasy wideout since 2012 -- Edelman last year. If you're selecting Evans or Godwin, that's what you're looking for from those guys: top-10 type production. That's where they'll be drafted. It's debatable whether Brady will be able to deliver that kind of production for either player.
Perhaps you look at that and say, see, Brady's right: the offense around him has deteriorated more than he has. If he'd had better receivers the last few years, he could still put up elite numbers, for him and for them. His No. 2s the last few years have been Phillip Dorsett, Chris Hogan, Danny Amendola and Brandon LaFell. He'll have a way better No. 2 in Tampa Bay.
We'll find out. My suspicion is that both Evans and Godwin will be fantasy starters; 1,000-yard wideouts, top-25 type guys. But if both are drafted as top-10 or 15 receivers, at least one will be selected too early.
--Andy Richardson