It doesn't have the wow appeal of the DeAndre Hopkins for David Johnson trade or the high profile of the Browns signing Austin Hooper. But a guy whose value changed a lot in yesterday's trades was the guy who will step into Hooper's shoes in Atlanta, Hayden Hurst.
Atlanta gave up a second-round pick (and moved up few spots from its fifth-rounder to Baltimore's fourth), so that's a significant outlay for Baltimore's little-used former first-rounder. He'd been supplanted, of course, by Mark Andrews, but it's not as if he can't play. (Fair to wonder if the Falcons gave up too much; Baltimore seems to be winning the trading game thus far.)
Hurst was drafted two rounds earlier, recall, and he was running with the first team in his rookie preseason. But he got hurt in an exhibition game, and that opened the door for Andrews to take over that key, heavily-targeted receiving tight end spot in the Ravens offense. (Nick Boyle also plays full-time, but he's primarily a blocker.)
Prior to getting hurt, Hurst was productive two Augusts ago: 3 for 14 with a touchdown in his debut, then 2 more catches before suffering the injury. He was then Wally Pipped to the bench by Andrews, who's been one of the better receiving tight ends the last two seasons, Lamar Jackson's favorite target.
But it will be intriguing to see him with a chance to start in Atlanta. While Hurst hasn't been heavily used behind Andrews, he's been effective with his limited chances. Last season he caught 77 percent of the passes thrown his way, which is a top-10 rate for tight ends (minimum 20 targets).
| TIGHT END CATCH RATES, 2019 (20-PLUS TARGETS) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Tgt | No | % | Yds | Avg | TD |
| Will Dissly, Sea. | 27 | 23 | 85.2% | 262 | 11.4 | 4 |
| Foster Moreau, Oak. | 25 | 21 | 84.0% | 174 | 8.3 | 5 |
| Ryan Griffin, NYJ | 41 | 34 | 82.9% | 320 | 9.4 | 5 |
| Kyle Rudolph, Min. | 48 | 39 | 81.3% | 367 | 9.4 | 6 |
| Jonnu Smith, Ten. | 44 | 35 | 79.5% | 439 | 12.5 | 3 |
| George Kittle, S.F. | 107 | 85 | 79.4% | 1053 | 12.4 | 5 |
| Tyler Higbee, LAR | 89 | 69 | 77.5% | 734 | 10.6 | 3 |
| Austin Hooper, Atl. | 97 | 75 | 77.3% | 787 | 10.5 | 6 |
| Hayden Hurst, Bal. | 39 | 30 | 76.9% | 349 | 11.6 | 2 |
| Darren Waller, Oak. | 117 | 90 | 76.9% | 1145 | 12.7 | 3 |
| Irv Smith Jr., Min. | 47 | 36 | 76.6% | 311 | 8.6 | 2 |
| Jason Witten, Dall. | 83 | 63 | 75.9% | 529 | 8.4 | 4 |
| Blake Jarwin, Dall. | 41 | 31 | 75.6% | 365 | 11.8 | 3 |
| Charles Clay, Ari. | 24 | 18 | 75.0% | 237 | 13.2 | 1 |
| Kaden Smith, NYG | 42 | 31 | 73.8% | 268 | 8.6 | 3 |
| Hunter Henry, LAC | 76 | 55 | 72.4% | 652 | 11.9 | 5 |
| Nick Boyle, Bal. | 43 | 31 | 72.1% | 321 | 10.4 | 2 |
| Josh Hill, N.O. | 35 | 25 | 71.4% | 226 | 9.0 | 3 |
| Travis Kelce, K.C. | 136 | 97 | 71.3% | 1229 | 12.7 | 5 |
| Darren Fells, Hou. | 48 | 34 | 70.8% | 341 | 10.0 | 7 |
| Ben Watson, N.E. | 24 | 17 | 70.8% | 173 | 10.2 | 0 |
| James O'Shaughnessy, Jac. | 20 | 14 | 70.0% | 153 | 10.9 | 2 |
| Jeff Heuerman, Den. | 20 | 14 | 70.0% | 114 | 8.1 | 1 |
| Jacob Hollister, Sea. | 59 | 41 | 69.5% | 349 | 8.5 | 3 |
| Vance McDonald, Pit. | 55 | 38 | 69.1% | 273 | 7.2 | 3 |
| Tyler Eifert, Cin. | 63 | 43 | 68.3% | 436 | 10.1 | 3 |
| Ross Dwelley, S.F. | 22 | 15 | 68.2% | 91 | 6.1 | 2 |
| Delanie Walker, Ten. | 31 | 21 | 67.7% | 215 | 10.2 | 2 |
| C.J. Uzomah, Cin. | 40 | 27 | 67.5% | 242 | 9.0 | 2 |
| Dallas Goedert, Phil. | 87 | 58 | 66.7% | 607 | 10.5 | 5 |
| Jared Cook, N.O. | 65 | 43 | 66.2% | 705 | 16.4 | 9 |
| Cameron Brate, T.B. | 55 | 36 | 65.5% | 311 | 8.6 | 4 |
| Jordan Akins, Hou. | 55 | 36 | 65.5% | 418 | 11.6 | 2 |
| Mark Andrews, Bal. | 98 | 64 | 65.3% | 852 | 13.3 | 10 |
| Zach Ertz, Phil. | 135 | 88 | 65.2% | 916 | 10.4 | 6 |
| Jeremy Sprinkle, Was. | 40 | 26 | 65.0% | 241 | 9.3 | 1 |
| Evan Engram, NYG | 68 | 44 | 64.7% | 467 | 10.6 | 3 |
| Rhett Ellison, NYG | 28 | 18 | 64.3% | 167 | 9.3 | 1 |
| O.J. Howard, T.B. | 53 | 34 | 64.2% | 459 | 13.5 | 1 |
| Ricky Seals-Jones, Cle. | 22 | 14 | 63.6% | 229 | 16.4 | 4 |
| Greg Olsen, Car. | 82 | 52 | 63.4% | 597 | 11.5 | 2 |
| Jimmy Graham, G.B. | 60 | 38 | 63.3% | 447 | 11.8 | 3 |
| Gerald Everett, LAR | 60 | 37 | 61.7% | 408 | 11.0 | 2 |
| Noah Fant, Den. | 66 | 40 | 60.6% | 562 | 14.1 | 3 |
| Jack Doyle, Ind. | 72 | 43 | 59.7% | 448 | 10.4 | 4 |
| Eric Ebron, Ind. | 52 | 31 | 59.6% | 375 | 12.1 | 3 |
| Jesse James, Det. | 27 | 16 | 59.3% | 142 | 8.9 | 0 |
| Anthony Firkser, Ten. | 24 | 14 | 58.3% | 204 | 14.6 | 1 |
| Trey Burton, Chi. | 24 | 14 | 58.3% | 84 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Mike Gesicki, Mia. | 89 | 51 | 57.3% | 570 | 11.2 | 5 |
| Logan Thomas, Det. | 28 | 16 | 57.1% | 173 | 10.8 | 1 |
| Dawson Knox, Buf. | 50 | 28 | 56.0% | 388 | 13.9 | 2 |
| Demetrius Harris, Cle. | 27 | 15 | 55.6% | 149 | 9.9 | 3 |
| T.J. Hockenson, Det. | 59 | 32 | 54.2% | 367 | 11.5 | 2 |
| Ian Thomas, Car. | 30 | 16 | 53.3% | 136 | 8.5 | 1 |
Some of that figure has to do with the kind of routes players are running, or the accuracy of the quarterback they're playing with; the guys at the bottom of the list aren't necessarily dropping lots of balls. But it can be said that Hurst has done well with his opportunities in Baltimore.
Note that Hurst shows up just behind the guy he's replacing on this list. Hooper last year had 97 targets (despite missing 3 games), and on a per-game basis was the third-most productive fantasy tight end (behind Travis Kelce and George Kittle). While he'll certainly be drafted a lot earlier in fantasy leagues, I think Hooper takes a hit in Cleveland. Baker Mayfield and that passing game isn't as good, and they've got a strong short-range target in Jarvis Landry. But Landry underwent a hip surgery in February with a 6-8 month recovery time, so maybe Hooper's busier than I think.
In any case. I think Hurst will fly under the radar a bit in fantasy drafts. I'm interested.
--Andy Richardson