Fantasy Index

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Factoid

Passing trend

Pass completions getting safer, shorter

With the way the game keeps evolving, I think we’ll see plenty of easy short completions this year. That’s the direction the game is headed.

In the last 20 years, 24 teams have completed at least 68 percent of their passes in a season. Remarkably, almost half of those teams (11) have come from the last two years.

I’ve got them highlighted below, with the teams from last year in bold and the teams from 2018 tagged with black dots.

Drew Brees (pictured) has been the leader of this group.

OFFENSES COMPLETING 68 PERCENT
YearTeamPct
2018•New Orleans73.4%
2017New Orleans72.0%
2019New Orleans71.9%
2011New Orleans71.3%
2018•Philadelphia70.5%
2016Minnesota70.4%
2019Oakland70.2%
2018•Minnesota70.1%
2016New Orleans70.0%
2016Atlanta69.6%
2015Washington69.5%
2013San Diego69.5%
2009New Orleans69.5%
2018•Atlanta69.4%
2019San Francisco69.2%
2014New Orleans69.2%
2015New Orleans69.0%
2014Dallas68.9%
2007New England68.8%
2004Minnesota68.8%
2001St. Louis68.8%
2018•Oakland68.7%
2012Atlanta68.6%
2019Minnesota68.5%
2013New Orleans68.5%
2006Houston68.4%
2012Denver68.4%
2013Denver68.3%
2018•Houston68.2%
2009Minnesota68.2%
2011Green Bay68.1%
2015Seattle68.1%
2010New Orleans68.1%
2018•LA Chargers68.0%

While completions are going up, however, it’s rare to see many teams trying to consistently push the ball downfield for long gains.

In the same 20-year period, 33 teams have averaged at least 13 yards per pass completion in a season. Only four of those teams have come from the last two years. The Bucs and Titans led the way in this area last year (Tampa Bay gunning it in Bruce Arians’ offense, while Tennessee using Derrick Henry to set up deep balls off play action.)

It’s just a different game now.

AVERAGING 13 YARDS PER COMPLETION
YearTeamYPC
2013Philadelphia14.2
2012Carolina13.8
2011NY Giants13.7
2011Green Bay13.7
2005Pittsburgh13.6
2015Arizona13.5
2004Denver13.5
2014Cleveland13.4
2019Tampa Bay13.4
2004Indianapolis13.4
2008Carolina13.4
2006Philadelphia13.3
2009San Diego13.3
2012Tampa Bay13.3
2019Tennessee13.3
2018•Kansas City13.3
2001Atlanta13.3
2016Atlanta13.3
2010San Diego13.2
2013San Francisco13.2
2013Seattle13.1
2018•Tampa Bay13.1
2006Dallas13.1
2011Carolina13.1
2011New England13.1
2011Oakland13.1
2009Philadelphia13.1
2010Pittsburgh13.1
2004Pittsburgh13.0
2008Atlanta13.0
2011Philadelphia13.0
2005Carolina13.0
2015Tampa Bay13.0

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index