Let me try this again. I had an article posted comparing Christian McCaffrey to Ezekiel Elliott to great running backs of the past, and I accidentally deleted most of it when trying to make some edits.
The idea was that a player like McCaffrey gets a lot more interesting in an auction format. If you’re picking first (or maybe second) in a draft, you’ll have to decide whether to take him or not take him. The other 10-11 owners need not bother with that decision.
In an auction, everyone instead must calculate on his actual value. The one owner of the 12 who decides that he’s worth the most gets him (and presumably the other 11 all think he overpaid). That makes the decision-making a lot more complex.
These players coming off huge years can be tough to value. It’s hard to avoid falling into the trap of thinking he might be almost as he was in his big season, when the odds of that happening actually aren’t that great. There are no sure things in fantasy football.
As an exercise on this front, let’s look at what you might call “can’t miss” running backs. I have dug up 30 names of running backs from the last 20 years. All of these players not only put up top-5 numbers (PPR scoring) but did it two years in a row. You take this all-star cast of sure-thing running backs, and then you roll the tape and look at how they fared.
For this experiment, by the way, I’m tossing aside any player who got hurt or retired before the season even began. Just 30 best-of-the-best running backs.
There are two of these backs available in drafts this year: McCaffrey and Elliott.
FOLLOWING UP BACK-TO-BACK GREAT YEARS | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | Run | Rec | Total | TD | PPR | Rk |
2000 | Marshall Faulk, St.L. | 1,359 | 830 | 2,189 | 26 | 459.9 | 1 |
2001 | Edgerrin James, Ind. | 662 | 193 | 855 | 3 | 129.5 | 32 |
2001 | Eddie George, Ten. | 939 | 279 | 1,218 | 5 | 188.8 | 20 |
2001 | Marshall Faulk, St.L. | 1,382 | 765 | 2,147 | 21 | 425.7 | 1 |
2002 | Curtis Martin, NYJ | 1,094 | 362 | 1,456 | 7 | 238.6 | 17 |
2002 | Ahman Green, G.B. | 1,240 | 393 | 1,633 | 9 | 274.3 | 11 |
2002 | Marshall Faulk, St.L. | 953 | 537 | 1,490 | 10 | 289.0 | 10 |
2003 | Priest Holmes, K.C. | 1,420 | 690 | 2,110 | 27 | 447.0 | 1 |
2004 | Priest Holmes, K.C. | 892 | 187 | 1,079 | 15 | 216.9 | 18 |
2004 | LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D. | 1,335 | 441 | 1,776 | 18 | 340.5 | 2 |
2005 | LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D. | 1,462 | 370 | 1,832 | 20 | 368.6 | 2 |
2006 | Shaun Alexander, Sea. | 896 | 48 | 944 | 7 | 148.4 | 33 |
2006 | Tiki Barber, NYG | 1,662 | 465 | 2,127 | 5 | 300.7 | 6 |
2006 | LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D. | 1,815 | 508 | 2,323 | 31 | 483.3 | 1 |
2007 | Larry Johnson, K.C. | 559 | 186 | 745 | 4 | 128.5 | 37 |
2007 | LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D. | 1,474 | 475 | 1,949 | 18 | 367.8 | 2 |
2008 | Brian Westbrook, Phil. | 936 | 402 | 1,338 | 14 | 271.8 | 8 |
2008 | LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D. | 1,110 | 426 | 1,536 | 12 | 277.6 | 6 |
2010 | Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac. | 1,324 | 317 | 1,641 | 7 | 240.1 | 13 |
2011 | Adrian Peterson, Min. | 970 | 139 | 1,109 | 13 | 206.9 | 15 |
2012 | LeSean McCoy, Phil. | 840 | 373 | 1,213 | 5 | 205.3 | 16 |
2012 | Arian Foster, Hou. | 1,424 | 217 | 1,641 | 17 | 306.1 | 3 |
2013 | Arian Foster, Hou. | 542 | 183 | 725 | 2 | 108.5 | 46 |
2013 | Ray Rice, Balt. | 660 | 321 | 981 | 4 | 182.1 | 22 |
2014 | Marshawn Lynch, Sea. | 1,306 | 367 | 1,673 | 17 | 306.3 | 4 |
2015 | Marshawn Lynch, Sea. | 417 | 80 | 497 | 3 | 82.7 | 61 |
2015 | Matt Forte, Chi. | 898 | 389 | 1,287 | 7 | 216.7 | 8 |
2019 | LeVeon Bell, NYJ | 789 | 461 | 1,250 | 4 | 217.0 | 16 |
2019 | Todd Gurley, LAR | 857 | 207 | 1,064 | 14 | 223.4 | 14 |
2019 | Alvin Kamara, N.O. | 797 | 533 | 1,330 | 6 | 250.7 | 9 |
2020 | Christian McCaffrey, Car. | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
2020 | Ezekiel Elliott, Dall. | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
The hit rate isn’t as high as you might expect. Only half of the 30 running backs put up top-10 numbers. So if you just set aside McCaffrey and Elliott – their real-life qualities and the offenses they’re playing in – the overall numbers suggest that if they finish with top-10 numbers, they’ll be coming in better than expected. If you pay for one of these guys with the expectation they’ll be top-5 backs, you’re being optimistics – it’s a “win” for your scouting department if they deliver top-5 numbers.
About the same number of backs finished 1st or 2nd as guys who didn’t even rank in the top 20. That’s the topsy-turvy nature of the position.
If you want to look at previous years, those numbers are below. (The hit rate,it seems, used to be a little higher.)
"CAN'T MISS" BACKS (1970-1999) | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | Run | Rec | Total | TD | PPR | Rk |
1973 | Floyd Little, Den. | 979 | 423 | 1,402 | 13 | 259.2 | 2 |
1974 | Floyd Little, Den. | 312 | 344 | 656 | 1 | 100.6 | 39 |
1974 | Larry Brown, Was. | 430 | 388 | 818 | 7 | 161.6 | 14 |
1976 | Lydell Mitchell, Balt. | 1,200 | 555 | 1,755 | 8 | 283.5 | 2 |
1976 | Chuck Foreman, Min. | 1,155 | 567 | 1,722 | 14 | 311.2 | 1 |
1977 | O.J. Simpson, Buff. | 557 | 138 | 695 | 0 | 85.5 | 54 |
1977 | Chuck Foreman, Min. | 1,112 | 308 | 1,420 | 9 | 234.0 | 4 |
1977 | Lydell Mitchell, Balt. | 1,159 | 620 | 1,779 | 7 | 290.9 | 2 |
1978 | Lawrence McCutcheon, LAR | 420 | 76 | 496 | 2 | 73.6 | 74 |
1978 | Chuck Foreman, Min. | 749 | 396 | 1,145 | 7 | 217.5 | 12 |
1978 | Lydell Mitchell, S.D. | 820 | 500 | 1,320 | 5 | 219.0 | 11 |
1978 | Walter Payton, Chi. | 1,395 | 480 | 1,875 | 11 | 303.5 | 1 |
1979 | Tony Dorsett, Dall. | 1,107 | 375 | 1,482 | 7 | 235.2 | 13 |
1979 | Walter Payton, Chi. | 1,610 | 313 | 1,923 | 16 | 326.0 | 1 |
1980 | Walter Payton, Chi. | 1,460 | 367 | 1,827 | 7 | 270.7 | 5 |
1980 | Earl Campbell, Hou. | 1,934 | 47 | 1,981 | 13 | 294.0 | 2 |
1981 | Walter Payton, Chi. | 1,222 | 379 | 1,601 | 8 | 249.1 | 15 |
1981 | Earl Campbell, Hou. | 1,376 | 156 | 1,532 | 10 | 249.2 | 14 |
1982 | Ted Brown, Min. | 515 | 207 | 722 | 3 | 121.2 | 15 |
1982 | Billy Sims, Det. | 639 | 342 | 981 | 4 | 156.1 | 6 |
1983 | Chuck Muncie, S.D. | 886 | 396 | 1,282 | 13 | 248.2 | 10 |
1983 | William Andrews, Atl. | 1,567 | 609 | 2,176 | 11 | 342.6 | 2 |
1984 | Marcus Allen, Oak. | 1,168 | 758 | 1,926 | 18 | 366.5 | 2 |
1985 | Eric Dickerson, LAR | 1,234 | 126 | 1,360 | 12 | 228.0 | 19 |
1985 | Walter Payton, Chi. | 1,551 | 483 | 2,034 | 11 | 327.2 | 3 |
1985 | Marcus Allen, Oak. | 1,759 | 555 | 2,314 | 14 | 383.2 | 2 |
1986 | William Andrews, Atl. | 214 | 35 | 249 | 1 | 35.9 | 98 |
1986 | Marcus Allen, Oak. | 759 | 453 | 1,212 | 7 | 209.2 | 18 |
1986 | Walter Payton, Chi. | 1,333 | 382 | 1,715 | 11 | 274.5 | 6 |
1987 | Joe Morris, NYG | 658 | 114 | 772 | 3 | 106.2 | 36 |
1988 | Herschel Walker, Dall. | 1,514 | 505 | 2,019 | 7 | 296.9 | 3 |
1988 | Eric Dickerson, Ind. | 1,659 | 377 | 2,036 | 15 | 329.6 | 2 |
1989 | Eric Dickerson, Ind. | 1,311 | 211 | 1,522 | 8 | 230.2 | 11 |
1989 | Herschel Walker, 2TM | 915 | 423 | 1,338 | 10 | 233.8 | 8 |
1989 | Roger Craig, S.F. | 1,054 | 473 | 1,527 | 7 | 243.7 | 6 |
1991 | Neal Anderson, Chi. | 747 | 368 | 1,115 | 9 | 212.5 | 7 |
1991 | Barry Sanders, Det. | 1,548 | 307 | 1,855 | 17 | 328.5 | 2 |
1991 | Thurman Thomas, Buff. | 1,407 | 631 | 2,038 | 12 | 337.8 | 1 |
1992 | Barry Sanders, Det. | 1,352 | 225 | 1,577 | 10 | 246.7 | 9 |
1992 | Thurman Thomas, Buff. | 1,487 | 626 | 2,113 | 12 | 341.3 | 2 |
1993 | Thurman Thomas, Buff. | 1,315 | 387 | 1,702 | 6 | 254.2 | 2 |
1993 | Emmitt Smith, Dall. | 1,486 | 414 | 1,900 | 10 | 307.0 | 1 |
1994 | Thurman Thomas, Buff. | 1,093 | 349 | 1,442 | 9 | 248.2 | 8 |
1994 | Emmitt Smith, Dall. | 1,484 | 341 | 1,825 | 22 | 364.5 | 1 |
1995 | Emmitt Smith, Dall. | 1,773 | 375 | 2,148 | 25 | 426.8 | 1 |
1996 | Barry Sanders, Det. | 1,553 | 147 | 1,700 | 11 | 260.0 | 7 |
1996 | Emmitt Smith, Dall. | 1,204 | 249 | 1,453 | 15 | 282.3 | 5 |
1996 | Ricky Watters, Phil. | 1,411 | 444 | 1,855 | 13 | 314.5 | 1 |
1997 | Emmitt Smith, Dall. | 1,074 | 234 | 1,308 | 4 | 196.8 | 15 |
1997 | Curtis Martin, N.E. | 1,160 | 296 | 1,456 | 5 | 216.6 | 13 |
1997 | Ricky Watters, Phil. | 1,110 | 440 | 1,550 | 7 | 245.0 | 7 |
1998 | Terrell Davis, Den. | 2,008 | 217 | 2,225 | 23 | 385.5 | 1 |
1999 | Terrell Davis, Den. | 211 | 26 | 237 | 2 | 38.7 | 87 |
1999 | Marshall Faulk, St.L. | 1,381 | 1,048 | 2,429 | 12 | 403.9 | 1 |