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Ian Allan

Can't-miss running backs

Will McCaffrey, Elliott come up big again?

Let me try this again. I had an article posted comparing Christian McCaffrey to Ezekiel Elliott to great running backs of the past, and I accidentally deleted most of it when trying to make some edits.

The idea was that a player like McCaffrey gets a lot more interesting in an auction format. If you’re picking first (or maybe second) in a draft, you’ll have to decide whether to take him or not take him. The other 10-11 owners need not bother with that decision.

In an auction, everyone instead must calculate on his actual value. The one owner of the 12 who decides that he’s worth the most gets him (and presumably the other 11 all think he overpaid). That makes the decision-making a lot more complex.

These players coming off huge years can be tough to value. It’s hard to avoid falling into the trap of thinking he might be almost as he was in his big season, when the odds of that happening actually aren’t that great. There are no sure things in fantasy football.

As an exercise on this front, let’s look at what you might call “can’t miss” running backs. I have dug up 30 names of running backs from the last 20 years. All of these players not only put up top-5 numbers (PPR scoring) but did it two years in a row. You take this all-star cast of sure-thing running backs, and then you roll the tape and look at how they fared.

For this experiment, by the way, I’m tossing aside any player who got hurt or retired before the season even began. Just 30 best-of-the-best running backs.

There are two of these backs available in drafts this year: McCaffrey and Elliott.

FOLLOWING UP BACK-TO-BACK GREAT YEARS
YearPlayerRunRecTotalTDPPRRk
2000Marshall Faulk, St.L.1,3598302,18926459.91
2001Edgerrin James, Ind.6621938553129.532
2001Eddie George, Ten.9392791,2185188.820
2001Marshall Faulk, St.L.1,3827652,14721425.71
2002Curtis Martin, NYJ1,0943621,4567238.617
2002Ahman Green, G.B.1,2403931,6339274.311
2002Marshall Faulk, St.L.9535371,49010289.010
2003Priest Holmes, K.C.1,4206902,11027447.01
2004Priest Holmes, K.C.8921871,07915216.918
2004LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D.1,3354411,77618340.52
2005LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D.1,4623701,83220368.62
2006Shaun Alexander, Sea.896489447148.433
2006Tiki Barber, NYG1,6624652,1275300.76
2006LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D.1,8155082,32331483.31
2007Larry Johnson, K.C.5591867454128.537
2007LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D.1,4744751,94918367.82
2008Brian Westbrook, Phil.9364021,33814271.88
2008LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D.1,1104261,53612277.66
2010Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac.1,3243171,6417240.113
2011Adrian Peterson, Min.9701391,10913206.915
2012LeSean McCoy, Phil.8403731,2135205.316
2012Arian Foster, Hou.1,4242171,64117306.13
2013Arian Foster, Hou.5421837252108.546
2013Ray Rice, Balt.6603219814182.122
2014Marshawn Lynch, Sea.1,3063671,67317306.34
2015Marshawn Lynch, Sea.41780497382.761
2015Matt Forte, Chi.8983891,2877216.78
2019LeVeon Bell, NYJ7894611,2504217.016
2019Todd Gurley, LAR8572071,06414223.414
2019Alvin Kamara, N.O.7975331,3306250.79
2020Christian McCaffrey, Car.??????
2020Ezekiel Elliott, Dall.??????

The hit rate isn’t as high as you might expect. Only half of the 30 running backs put up top-10 numbers. So if you just set aside McCaffrey and Elliott – their real-life qualities and the offenses they’re playing in – the overall numbers suggest that if they finish with top-10 numbers, they’ll be coming in better than expected. If you pay for one of these guys with the expectation they’ll be top-5 backs, you’re being optimistics – it’s a “win” for your scouting department if they deliver top-5 numbers.

About the same number of backs finished 1st or 2nd as guys who didn’t even rank in the top 20. That’s the topsy-turvy nature of the position.

If you want to look at previous years, those numbers are below. (The hit rate,it seems, used to be a little higher.)

"CAN'T MISS" BACKS (1970-1999)
YearPlayerRunRecTotalTDPPRRk
1973Floyd Little, Den.9794231,40213259.22
1974Floyd Little, Den.3123446561100.639
1974Larry Brown, Was.4303888187161.614
1976Lydell Mitchell, Balt.1,2005551,7558283.52
1976Chuck Foreman, Min.1,1555671,72214311.21
1977O.J. Simpson, Buff.557138695085.554
1977Chuck Foreman, Min.1,1123081,4209234.04
1977Lydell Mitchell, Balt.1,1596201,7797290.92
1978Lawrence McCutcheon, LAR42076496273.674
1978Chuck Foreman, Min.7493961,1457217.512
1978Lydell Mitchell, S.D.8205001,3205219.011
1978Walter Payton, Chi.1,3954801,87511303.51
1979Tony Dorsett, Dall.1,1073751,4827235.213
1979Walter Payton, Chi.1,6103131,92316326.01
1980Walter Payton, Chi.1,4603671,8277270.75
1980Earl Campbell, Hou.1,934471,98113294.02
1981Walter Payton, Chi.1,2223791,6018249.115
1981Earl Campbell, Hou.1,3761561,53210249.214
1982Ted Brown, Min.5152077223121.215
1982Billy Sims, Det.6393429814156.16
1983Chuck Muncie, S.D.8863961,28213248.210
1983William Andrews, Atl.1,5676092,17611342.62
1984Marcus Allen, Oak.1,1687581,92618366.52
1985Eric Dickerson, LAR1,2341261,36012228.019
1985Walter Payton, Chi.1,5514832,03411327.23
1985Marcus Allen, Oak.1,7595552,31414383.22
1986William Andrews, Atl.21435249135.998
1986Marcus Allen, Oak.7594531,2127209.218
1986Walter Payton, Chi.1,3333821,71511274.56
1987Joe Morris, NYG6581147723106.236
1988Herschel Walker, Dall.1,5145052,0197296.93
1988Eric Dickerson, Ind.1,6593772,03615329.62
1989Eric Dickerson, Ind.1,3112111,5228230.211
1989Herschel Walker, 2TM9154231,33810233.88
1989Roger Craig, S.F.1,0544731,5277243.76
1991Neal Anderson, Chi.7473681,1159212.57
1991Barry Sanders, Det.1,5483071,85517328.52
1991Thurman Thomas, Buff.1,4076312,03812337.81
1992Barry Sanders, Det.1,3522251,57710246.79
1992Thurman Thomas, Buff.1,4876262,11312341.32
1993Thurman Thomas, Buff.1,3153871,7026254.22
1993Emmitt Smith, Dall.1,4864141,90010307.01
1994Thurman Thomas, Buff.1,0933491,4429248.28
1994Emmitt Smith, Dall.1,4843411,82522364.51
1995Emmitt Smith, Dall.1,7733752,14825426.81
1996Barry Sanders, Det.1,5531471,70011260.07
1996Emmitt Smith, Dall.1,2042491,45315282.35
1996Ricky Watters, Phil.1,4114441,85513314.51
1997Emmitt Smith, Dall.1,0742341,3084196.815
1997Curtis Martin, N.E.1,1602961,4565216.613
1997Ricky Watters, Phil.1,1104401,5507245.07
1998Terrell Davis, Den.2,0082172,22523385.51
1999Terrell Davis, Den.21126237238.787
1999Marshall Faulk, St.L.1,3811,0482,42912403.91

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