Working on a writeup on the Broncos, Noah Fant looks to me like a player to target for 2020. After a nice rookie season, I think he could be ready to move up into the top 10 among tight ends.
Earlier there was some discussion about Austin Hooper. Fant will definitely be higher on my board than Hooper.
Fant was the second of the two Iowa tight ends selected in the first round, but he had a better season than T.J. Hockenson. Fant caught a 75-yard touchdown against the Browns, and after Drew Lock took over at quarterback, he hit Fant for 48- and 43-catch plays in their first two games together.
The Broncos hired Pat Shurmur to be their new offensive coordinator. I think that will translate into a lot more passing, with plenty of balls going to their tight ends. If you look at Evan Engram and the guys who replaced him last year, I see 81 catches and 6 TDs going to that tight end spot in Shurmur’s offense last year.
And Fant presumably will be more confident and knowledgeable heading into his second year.
As part of his writeup, let’s look at the last 25 rookie tight ends to rank in the top 20 in scoring. How did those guys then do in their next season? Over two thirds of them (17 of 25) ranked higher, and 12 of them put up top-10 numbers.
I haven’t stacked a board yet. At this time of year, I like to take a long look at each team – one team per game. (After the draft, I’ll go back in and take another look). Right now, I’m guess Fant will be in that top 10.
| TOP-20 ROOKIE TIGHT ENDS (the next year) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Rec | Yds | TD | PPR | Rk | Diff |
| 2001 | Bubba Franks, G.B. | 36 | 322 | 9 | 122.2 | 8 | 60% |
| 2002 | • Eric Johnson, S.F. | 36 | 321 | 0 | 68.1 | 24 | -29% |
| 2003 | Randy McMichael, Mia. | 49 | 598 | 2 | 126.8 | 4 | 13% |
| 2003 | • Doug Jolley, Oak. | 31 | 250 | 1 | 62.0 | 30 | -27% |
| 2003 | • Jeremy Shockey, NYG | 48 | 535 | 2 | 113.5 | 9 | -35% |
| 2004 | Jason Witten, Dall. | 87 | 980 | 6 | 223.0 | 3 | 195% |
| 2005 | Chris Cooley, Was. | 71 | 774 | 7 | 190.4 | 4 | 82% |
| 2006 | • Alex Smith, T.B. | 35 | 250 | 3 | 78.0 | 20 | -13% |
| 2006 | • Heath Miller, Pitt. | 34 | 393 | 5 | 103.3 | 13 | -15% |
| 2007 | Owen Daniels, Hou. | 63 | 768 | 3 | 157.8 | 7 | 59% |
| 2008 | Zach Miller, Oak. | 56 | 778 | 1 | 139.8 | 10 | 31% |
| 2009 | John Carlson, Sea. | 51 | 574 | 7 | 150.4 | 13 | 2% |
| 2009 | • Dustin Keller, NYJ | 45 | 522 | 2 | 111.9 | 19 | -6% |
| 2011 | Rob Gronkowski, N.E. | 90 | 1327 | 17 | 330.9 | 1 | 111% |
| 2011 | Aaron Hernandez, N.E. | 79 | 910 | 7 | 216.5 | 3 | 52% |
| 2011 | Jermaine Gresham, Cin. | 56 | 596 | 6 | 151.6 | 14 | 21% |
| 2011 | • Tony Moeaki, K.C. | 33 | 453 | 1 | 84.3 | 33 | -30% |
| 2014 | • Tim Wright, N.E. | 26 | 259 | 6 | 87.7 | 23 | -38% |
| 2017 | • Hunter Henry, LAC | 45 | 579 | 4 | 126.9 | 14 | -4% |
| 2018 | George Kittle, S.F. | 88 | 1377 | 5 | 258.7 | 3 | 143% |
| 2018 | O.J. Howard, T.B. | 34 | 565 | 5 | 120.5 | 15 | 15% |
| 2018 | • Evan Engram, NYG | 45 | 577 | 3 | 126.3 | 13 | -27% |
| 2019 | Mark Andrews, Balt. | 64 | 852 | 10 | 209.2 | 5 | 95% |
| 2019 | Dallas Goedert, Phil. | 58 | 607 | 5 | 148.7 | 10 | 64% |
| 2019 | • Chris Herndon, NYJ | 1 | 7 | 0 | 1.7 | 109 | -98% |
| 2020 | Noah Fant, Det. | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
In the chart, if the guy’s overall production (using PPR scoring) declined, I’ve got him flagged with a black dot.
—Ian Allan