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Factoid

First-round quarterbacks

Long odds outside top 10

Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert. They're the consensus top 3 quarterbacks in this year's draft, and all three will probably be gone in the top 10 picks. But supposedly Jordan Love (pictured) will also go in the first round, and just maybe Jalen Hurts. What's the hit rate on quarterbacks selected in the first round -- but outside the top 10?

There have been a couple of very recent stars, of course: Lamar Jackson, drafted 32nd overall in 2018, and Deshaun Watson, drafted 12th the previous season. But prior to those guys you had to go back a dozen years to really find an NFL superstar, in Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (2005).

The only three other real hits from the last 30 years missed the top 10 by a single pick. Ben Roethlisberger, Jay Cutler and Daunte Culpepper were all drafted 11th overall, and all three had at least one top-3 fantasy finish at some point in their careers.

There have been 28 quarterbacks drafted in the first round -- but outside the top 10 -- in the last 30 years. (To be clear, this is excluding the many quarterbacks selected in the top 10, and also the quarterback hits from the second round on -- guys like Drew Brees, Russell Wilson and Kirk Cousins.)

Of those 28 guys, exactly a quarter (7) have had a top 10 fantasy finish at some point in their careers. One of those guys, Josh Freeman, was never really a star -- just had one productive year. The other 21 featured twice as many quarterbacks who never had a top 20 fantasy finish in their careers as did (14-7).

In the table, quarterbacks with a top-10 fantasy rank at some point in their careers are in bold. Best career ranks for each player are shown.

FIRST-ROUND QUARTERBACKS (PICKS 11-32), 1990-PRESENT
YearPkPlayerFF Rk
201915Dwayne Haskins, Wash.33rd
201832Lamar Jackson, Balt.1st
201712Deshaun Watson, Hou.4th
201626Paxton Lynch, Den.43rd
201422Johnny Manziel, Clev.34th
201432Teddy Bridgewater, Minn.22nd
201316EJ Manuel, Buff.28th
201222Brandon Weeden, Clev.25th
201112Christian Ponder, Minn.22nd
201025Tim Tebow, Den.19th
200917Josh Freeman, T.B.10th
200818Joe Flacco, Balt.12th
200722Brady Quinn, Clev.30th
200611Jay Cutler, Den.3rd
200524Aaron Rodgers, G.B.1st
200525Jason Campbell, Wash.15th
200411Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt.2nd
200422J.P. Losman, Buff.14th
200319Kyle Boller, Balt.25th
200322Rex Grossman, Chi.13th
200232Patrick Ramsey, Wash.23rd
200018Chad Pennington, NYJ13th
199911Daunte Culpepper, Minn.1st
199912Cade McNown, Chi.26th
199726Jim Druckenmiller, S.F.54th
199225Tommy Maddox, Den.16th
199116Dan McGwire, Sea.47th
199124Todd Marinovich, LAR34th

Maybe you've seen the reports about the Patriots supposedly being enamored with Love, or the Chargers or Packers kicking the tires on Hurts. (Maybe in the 2nd? No way are the Chargers taking him at No. 6.)

If those players do get taken in that area of the first round, they look about three times as likely to be the next Tommy Maddox or Christian Ponder as the next Jackson or Watson.

On behalf of those players, if we remove Haskins from the discussion -- too soon to call just one year into his career -- NFL teams have at least hit on two straight such quarterbacks. Those are the only hits in the last decade, though.

--Andy Richardson

12 Reader Comments:

Yaesha Newman

2020-04-16T14:15:21Z
Miami would be insane not to take Tua and it’s not worth the risk for most other teams. Miami could draft him and sit him for a year behind Josh Rosen. Tus could learn how to play safely (see what Nick Saban said) and maybe Miami could get something for Rosen if he plays ok. If he works out, Miami gets a franchise back. They have been a ridiculous organization for so long it’s pathetic.

Andy Richardson

Port Chester, NY
2020-04-16T14:29:33Z
Reports are suggesting they prefer Herbert, but no one really knows. Remember two years ago there were various reports saying the Browns loved Allen, Darnold and Rosen before they took Mayfield. Because of where they're picking Miami has every reason to throw up smokescreens. I agree that Tua should be their pick, but I'll concede that medical considerations may be a factor.

Bruce Sadler

Lakeland, FL
2020-04-16T14:56:37Z
Wonder if they have the same medical staff that said Drew Bress shoulder was bad .That making the decision on Tua

Bill Rehor

Culver City, CA
2020-04-16T15:23:21Z
To be fair - Chad Pennington may never have put up strong fantasy numbers, but an NFL team would be pretty happy to get his career out of a guy late in the first round.

Andy Richardson

Port Chester, NY
2020-04-16T15:32:36Z
Yeah - I’m not calling all these players busts. Just pointing out there aren’t a lot of franchise quarterbacks picked in that area of the draft. If I narrowed it to just the second half of the round - say picks 16-32 - it looks even worse. I’d agree that Pennington is a little underrated.

Vin Kmetz

2020-04-16T16:31:29Z
Just because the unexpected is what happens... I'm saying the Dolphins overwhelm Cincy with an offer to move up and get Burrow... let someone else develop Herbert and find out if Tua is a healthy, legit NFL QB. they have the draft goods to do it and Cincy needs much more than a QB...The draft value chart says that moving from #5 to #1 would cost the #18, and one of Miami's 2nd rd (39)....the Bengals could do a lot more for themselves at 5, 18, 33 and 39, then at just 1 and 33...

Yaesha Newman

2020-04-16T17:37:35Z
Miami’s unusual situation with picks. It’s ideal moment to take a gamble on something big. Even if it’s a total bust they still could have a decent or great draft if the other picks work out. If they trade for Burrow it’s all eggs in one basket. Or closer.

Brack Varnon

Houston, TX
2020-04-16T19:40:56Z
NE has won 11 straight AFC East titles, and 17 of the last 19.

The two times they didn't, who was the QB of the team that did?

Drew Paterson

Ferndale, WA
2020-04-16T19:47:18Z
Pennington?

Brack Varnon

Houston, TX
2020-04-16T20:00:28Z
yessir '02 Jets '08 Dolphins

no Brady injury and we might be looking at 17 straight for Pats

Ian Allan

Seattle, WA
2020-04-16T20:21:03Z
That's a nice trivia question. We may need to have Brack sit in for the regular Trivia Question of the Day proper. The Pennington question would be an upgrade over the obscure Bourne question that was posted today.

James Costello

Portland, ME
2020-04-16T21:58:57Z
Statistics like these should be used by GMs when making their draft pick. Do I take a quarterback with a low hit probability, or the best ranked player? I looked up only two. Dee Ford was drafted immediately after Manziel, and Kenny Clark was immediately after Lynch. Both went to the pro bowl. You can’t whiff on those early picks
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