Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert. They're the consensus top 3 quarterbacks in this year's draft, and all three will probably be gone in the top 10 picks. But supposedly Jordan Love (pictured) will also go in the first round, and just maybe Jalen Hurts. What's the hit rate on quarterbacks selected in the first round -- but outside the top 10?
There have been a couple of very recent stars, of course: Lamar Jackson, drafted 32nd overall in 2018, and Deshaun Watson, drafted 12th the previous season. But prior to those guys you had to go back a dozen years to really find an NFL superstar, in Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (2005).
The only three other real hits from the last 30 years missed the top 10 by a single pick. Ben Roethlisberger, Jay Cutler and Daunte Culpepper were all drafted 11th overall, and all three had at least one top-3 fantasy finish at some point in their careers.
There have been 28 quarterbacks drafted in the first round -- but outside the top 10 -- in the last 30 years. (To be clear, this is excluding the many quarterbacks selected in the top 10, and also the quarterback hits from the second round on -- guys like Drew Brees, Russell Wilson and Kirk Cousins.)
Of those 28 guys, exactly a quarter (7) have had a top 10 fantasy finish at some point in their careers. One of those guys, Josh Freeman, was never really a star -- just had one productive year. The other 21 featured twice as many quarterbacks who never had a top 20 fantasy finish in their careers as did (14-7).
In the table, quarterbacks with a top-10 fantasy rank at some point in their careers are in bold. Best career ranks for each player are shown.
| FIRST-ROUND QUARTERBACKS (PICKS 11-32), 1990-PRESENT | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Pk | Player | FF Rk |
| 2019 | 15 | Dwayne Haskins, Wash. | 33rd |
| 2018 | 32 | Lamar Jackson, Balt. | 1st |
| 2017 | 12 | Deshaun Watson, Hou. | 4th |
| 2016 | 26 | Paxton Lynch, Den. | 43rd |
| 2014 | 22 | Johnny Manziel, Clev. | 34th |
| 2014 | 32 | Teddy Bridgewater, Minn. | 22nd |
| 2013 | 16 | EJ Manuel, Buff. | 28th |
| 2012 | 22 | Brandon Weeden, Clev. | 25th |
| 2011 | 12 | Christian Ponder, Minn. | 22nd |
| 2010 | 25 | Tim Tebow, Den. | 19th |
| 2009 | 17 | Josh Freeman, T.B. | 10th |
| 2008 | 18 | Joe Flacco, Balt. | 12th |
| 2007 | 22 | Brady Quinn, Clev. | 30th |
| 2006 | 11 | Jay Cutler, Den. | 3rd |
| 2005 | 24 | Aaron Rodgers, G.B. | 1st |
| 2005 | 25 | Jason Campbell, Wash. | 15th |
| 2004 | 11 | Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt. | 2nd |
| 2004 | 22 | J.P. Losman, Buff. | 14th |
| 2003 | 19 | Kyle Boller, Balt. | 25th |
| 2003 | 22 | Rex Grossman, Chi. | 13th |
| 2002 | 32 | Patrick Ramsey, Wash. | 23rd |
| 2000 | 18 | Chad Pennington, NYJ | 13th |
| 1999 | 11 | Daunte Culpepper, Minn. | 1st |
| 1999 | 12 | Cade McNown, Chi. | 26th |
| 1997 | 26 | Jim Druckenmiller, S.F. | 54th |
| 1992 | 25 | Tommy Maddox, Den. | 16th |
| 1991 | 16 | Dan McGwire, Sea. | 47th |
| 1991 | 24 | Todd Marinovich, LAR | 34th |
Maybe you've seen the reports about the Patriots supposedly being enamored with Love, or the Chargers or Packers kicking the tires on Hurts. (Maybe in the 2nd? No way are the Chargers taking him at No. 6.)
If those players do get taken in that area of the first round, they look about three times as likely to be the next Tommy Maddox or Christian Ponder as the next Jackson or Watson.
On behalf of those players, if we remove Haskins from the discussion -- too soon to call just one year into his career -- NFL teams have at least hit on two straight such quarterbacks. Those are the only hits in the last decade, though.
--Andy Richardson