Fantasy Index

Factoid

Top-10 Quarterbacks

More than half have had noteworthy seasons

Last week I ran an item about first-round quarterbacks drafted outside the top 10; what kind of fantasy impact can generally be expected from those players. Here's the companion factoid: how quarterbacks selected in the top 10 have worked out. No surprise: a whole lot better.

Among quarterbacks drafted 11-32 in the last 30 years, only a quarter (7 of 28) had a top-10 fantasy season at some point in their NFL careers. But put that same criteria on players drafted in the top 10 picks, and more than half (19 of 34) have done so. Considering four of the exceptions were drafted in the last two years, very possible we see that percentage creep upward. If Baker Mayfield, Daniel Jones, and Sam Darnold all prove worthy of their draft status, we could see that hit rate move up to two-thirds.

For this table I cropped the list at 20 years. Table shows each player's top season passing and rushing stats; those with a top-10 fantasy finish are in bold.

QBS DRAFTED IN THE TOP 10, 2000-2019, BEST SEASONS
PkDraftPlayerPassTDRunTDPPRRk
12019Kyler Murray, Ariz.3722205444350.56
62019Daniel Jones, NYG3027242792291.320
72018Josh Allen, Buff.3089205109345.58
12018Baker Mayfield, Cle.3827221413313.516
32018Sam Darnold, NYJ2865171381231.124
102018Josh Rosen, Ariz.2278111380173.732
102017Patrick Mahomes, K.C.5097502722496.11
22017Mitchell Trubisky, Chi.3223244213325.315
12016Jared Goff, LAR4688321082397.26
22016Carson Wentz, Phil.3296332990334.78
12015Jameis Winston, T.B.5109332501426.52
22015Marcus Mariota, Ten.3426263492322.214
32014Blake Bortles, Jac.4428353102406.43
12012Andrew Luck, Ind.4761402733443.41
82012Ryan Tannehill, Mia.4045273111348.010
22012Robert Griffin, Was.3200208157363.510
12011Cam Newton, Car.38373563610455.51
82011Jake Locker, Ten.2176102911183.929
102011Blaine Gabbert, Jac.221412980168.527
12010Sam Bradford, St.L.3702211241295.517
12009Matthew Stafford, Det.465029692371.44
52009Mark Sanchez, NYJ3474261036324.010
32008Matt Ryan, Atl.4924351253428.23
12007JaMarcus Russell, Oak.2423131271191.924
32006Vince Young, Ten.2199125527257.212
102006Matt Leinart, Ariz.254711492188.324
12005Alex Smith, K.C.4042263551347.66
42004Philip Rivers, S.D.471030520362.74
12004Eli Manning, NYG376224801300.14
12003Carson Palmer, Cin.383632411331.91
72003Byron Leftwich, Jac.2941151482242.218
12002David Carr, Hou.3531162990270.514
32002Joey Harrington, Det.3047191750247.917
12001Michael Vick, Atl.24742010392320.74

All of these guys weren't superstars. Some got into the lineup quicker and got a much longer leash than quarterbacks selected later in the round. No one is calling Blake Bortles a successful pick, and Jameis Winston is currently unemployed.

But when 3-4 quarterbacks (including Joe Burrow, pictured) come off the board in the top 10 picks this Thursday, pretty good odds at least 2 of them turn in a top-1o fantasy season in the next few years. There are more guys like Matt Ryan and Matthew Stafford than JaMarcus Russell and Blaine Gabbert.

--Andy Richardson

20 Reader Comments:

Ben Hogevoll

Siletz, OR
2020-04-18T16:10:25Z
I don't think Tagovailoa will go in the first rd.If by chance he does,he will be a huge risk.He has a bad hip,surgeries on both ankles,sprained knee,and hand surgery.Besides all that,no team doctors can check him out.It will be interesting to say the least.

Andy Richardson

Port Chester, NY
2020-04-18T16:25:31Z
Some teams will be scared away, sure. Somebody drafting in the top 10 won’t be. Maybe he slides a little, but I would be surprised if it’s too far.

Richard Loppnow

Ephrata, WA
2020-04-18T17:09:53Z
Poll time, poll time! "Tua will/won't go in the Top 10." Or, "Tua will be drafted 1-10/11-20/21-32/2nd-round-or-lower." I'm with Ben on this one, I think the medicals have him tumbling.

Richard Loppnow

Ephrata, WA
2020-04-18T17:19:21Z
Analysis time: The Bungles are committed to Burroughs. Miami could draft a QB at #5, you'd think the Chargers sure would at #6. Jacksonville's a possibility at #9, tho' seems to me they're more inclined to give Minshew a clean shot for this year. No one (else) drafting 10-22 needs a QB, so it would take many picks for anyone else to trade up into the top 10.

Richard Loppnow

Ephrata, WA
2020-04-18T17:28:44Z
Jordan Love will go before Tua, given GMs are thinking 'Maybe another Mahomes! Maybe another Mahomes!' A GM could fall in love with Herbert the way it happened with Daniel Jones and Josh Allen. Given that I don't think it's definite Miami and Jacksonville will go QB (Miami could decide to see who's there with their next pick), I think odds are well against Tua going in the Top 10.

Richard Loppnow

Ephrata, WA
2020-04-18T17:32:59Z
2 ways I can see it happening. Miami does take Jordan, and the Chargers just don't like Herbert so go ahead and gamble on Tua. Or Jacksonville really does like Tua but decides they can give him a clipboard/classroom year while seeing how Mishew works out this season. If Minshew does have a good year, either he or Tua makes for one really nice trade chip.

James Costello

Portland, ME
2020-04-18T17:49:56Z
I’d be more concerned about Tua’s Wonderlic score. His was very low and I’d be interested in knowing how other QBs fared with similar scores

Ben Hogevoll

Siletz, OR
2020-04-18T18:23:01Z
James,Lamar Jackson had the same score last year that Tagovailoa which was a woeful 13 correct out of 50 questions.Fitzpatrick is tied for 3rd with 48.Only one person has ever had a perfect score and that was a Bengals punter who also went to Harvard as did Fitz.
I am not sure the Wonderlic score is really that important.

Ben Hogevoll

Siletz, OR
2020-04-18T18:33:55Z
2020 Wonderlic scores Stanley40-Fromm36-Burrow34-Luton29-Love27-Herbert25-Godon25-Lewerke25-Eason23-Morgan23-Hurts18 Tagovailoa 13 first time 19 second time.

James Costello

Portland, ME
2020-04-18T18:44:01Z
I’m thinking Wonderlic scores could translate to football IQ

Andy Richardson

Port Chester, NY
2020-04-18T19:25:47Z
I remember Vince Young had a low Wonderlic. But so did Dan Marino. McNair, McNabb and Bradshaw all had 15 or lower, and they were very good QBs. Blaine Gabbert and Drew Henson were in the 40s. I think teams give it some weight but I don’t think it’s the biggest consideration.

I figure maybe a quarter of the reported stories this time of year are true. Not to be all paranoid but I definitely believe agents for one player will spread steroids about others that help their clients, just as I believe teams enamored of certain players will leak reports to drive their stock down.

Andy Richardson

Port Chester, NY
2020-04-18T19:27:15Z
Steroids = stories lol. Agents spreading steroids, thanks autocorrect

Paul Desimone

Hayward, CA
2020-04-18T19:54:43Z
The Wonderlic is a cognitive ability test. It reveals a person's problem-solving abilities. It does not measure intuitiveness on a football field. It does not gauge when to drop a pass off to a back, when to throw and how much to put on it on a deep crosser to your Z receiver. It does not tell a QB when to pull it down and run. The Wonderlic indicates scholastic aptitude, but absolutely nothing as to football traits. It's a test which has become standard for businesses screening employees. But it's not going to tell a GM whether or not to draft Tua before Justin or not.

Ian Allan

Seattle, WA
2020-04-18T20:07:13Z
Wonderlic scores are pretty much meaningless, I think. For teams thinking about selecting one of the four notable quarterbacks, they get to meet with them and put them in front of the greaseboard, having them draw up and explain plays -- the different responsibilities of the 22 players on the field. That's far more telling than grading that which players are best at algebra and logic questions. (Which one of these shapes is different? Which word doesn't belong? Etc.)

Ben Hogevoll

Siletz, OR
2020-04-18T23:23:54Z
When you say pretty much meaningless,I hope that would also apply to my spelling?

Drew Paterson

Ferndale, WA
2020-04-18T23:39:34Z
I didn't know Drew Henson had a 40! Of course, he left Michigan early and played for several years in the Yankees farm system before retiring from baseball and declaring for the NFL draft in 2003 or 2004. He probably took the Wonderlic then, so he had a couple more years to mature and possibly improve his cognitive abilites. One of the best raw QB's I ever saw. The way he looked at Michigan, playing along-side Brady as a Fr-So and eventually succeeding him, I would have drafted him #1 overall if he had stuck around for his senior season. If you asked me which Michigan QB would be more successful back then, I wouldn't have chosen Brady!

Ian Allan

Seattle, WA
2020-04-19T03:55:57Z
You're in luck, Ben. The Wonderlic includes no spelling. A lot of goofy little logic problems. I have a copy of one nearby. Sample questions include: PAIN is the opposite of .... poison, torment, agony, comfort, punish. VOCATION WORK -- Do these words have similar meaning, contradictory or neither same nor opposite. A boy is 6 years and is sister is twice as old. When the boy is 10 years old, what will be the age of his sister? Final question: Gasoline is 15 center per gallon (this is an old version of the test, apparently). How much gas can you buy for a dollar? The test is fun to take -- to see how you score. And if a player scores really high or really low, it might cause you to potentially look into that player more. But I don't think the test itself is much of a measure of a player's ability to play football.

Drew Paterson

Ferndale, WA
2020-04-19T04:10:35Z
How much time do you have to answer the 50 questions? Something like 10-12 minutes I believe. Hence, there's a component to this that involves quick thinking and processing ability. A well-rested, clear-headed, player should be a able to get 20 right easily, especially if he's been coached. If not, then you have to wonder. In Tua's case, coming from a program like Alabama, he should have had access to Wonderlic coaching. Too much partying the night before?

Andy Richardson

Port Chester, NY
2020-04-19T13:59:37Z
Story yesterday that the initially reported scores for both Tua (who apparently had a 19) and Herbert (39) were bogus. I'm with Ian. Can totally see how on a timed test where you're trying to answer quickly you can be fooled into answering 20 on the brother-sister questions rather than 16. Unclear how making a math error indicates you won't recognize a zone blitz.

Bruce Sadler

Lakeland, FL
2020-04-19T22:11:39Z
Why do they have those questions and not football related questioned to certain situation and how to read defenses . What the best play would be used .Who really cares if the player can tell me that bobby is on a train in Memphis Tenn and suzy get on a plane in LA ,CA . Have to find out how much faster the train has to go to reach Boston ,MA before the plane gets there . Has anything to do with football
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