Last week I ran an item about first-round quarterbacks drafted outside the top 10; what kind of fantasy impact can generally be expected from those players. Here's the companion factoid: how quarterbacks selected in the top 10 have worked out. No surprise: a whole lot better.
Among quarterbacks drafted 11-32 in the last 30 years, only a quarter (7 of 28) had a top-10 fantasy season at some point in their NFL careers. But put that same criteria on players drafted in the top 10 picks, and more than half (19 of 34) have done so. Considering four of the exceptions were drafted in the last two years, very possible we see that percentage creep upward. If Baker Mayfield, Daniel Jones, and Sam Darnold all prove worthy of their draft status, we could see that hit rate move up to two-thirds.
For this table I cropped the list at 20 years. Table shows each player's top season passing and rushing stats; those with a top-10 fantasy finish are in bold.
| QBS DRAFTED IN THE TOP 10, 2000-2019, BEST SEASONS | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pk | Draft | Player | Pass | TD | Run | TD | PPR | Rk |
| 1 | 2019 | Kyler Murray, Ariz. | 3722 | 20 | 544 | 4 | 350.5 | 6 |
| 6 | 2019 | Daniel Jones, NYG | 3027 | 24 | 279 | 2 | 291.3 | 20 |
| 7 | 2018 | Josh Allen, Buff. | 3089 | 20 | 510 | 9 | 345.5 | 8 |
| 1 | 2018 | Baker Mayfield, Cle. | 3827 | 22 | 141 | 3 | 313.5 | 16 |
| 3 | 2018 | Sam Darnold, NYJ | 2865 | 17 | 138 | 1 | 231.1 | 24 |
| 10 | 2018 | Josh Rosen, Ariz. | 2278 | 11 | 138 | 0 | 173.7 | 32 |
| 10 | 2017 | Patrick Mahomes, K.C. | 5097 | 50 | 272 | 2 | 496.1 | 1 |
| 2 | 2017 | Mitchell Trubisky, Chi. | 3223 | 24 | 421 | 3 | 325.3 | 15 |
| 1 | 2016 | Jared Goff, LAR | 4688 | 32 | 108 | 2 | 397.2 | 6 |
| 2 | 2016 | Carson Wentz, Phil. | 3296 | 33 | 299 | 0 | 334.7 | 8 |
| 1 | 2015 | Jameis Winston, T.B. | 5109 | 33 | 250 | 1 | 426.5 | 2 |
| 2 | 2015 | Marcus Mariota, Ten. | 3426 | 26 | 349 | 2 | 322.2 | 14 |
| 3 | 2014 | Blake Bortles, Jac. | 4428 | 35 | 310 | 2 | 406.4 | 3 |
| 1 | 2012 | Andrew Luck, Ind. | 4761 | 40 | 273 | 3 | 443.4 | 1 |
| 8 | 2012 | Ryan Tannehill, Mia. | 4045 | 27 | 311 | 1 | 348.0 | 10 |
| 2 | 2012 | Robert Griffin, Was. | 3200 | 20 | 815 | 7 | 363.5 | 10 |
| 1 | 2011 | Cam Newton, Car. | 3837 | 35 | 636 | 10 | 455.5 | 1 |
| 8 | 2011 | Jake Locker, Ten. | 2176 | 10 | 291 | 1 | 183.9 | 29 |
| 10 | 2011 | Blaine Gabbert, Jac. | 2214 | 12 | 98 | 0 | 168.5 | 27 |
| 1 | 2010 | Sam Bradford, St.L. | 3702 | 21 | 124 | 1 | 295.5 | 17 |
| 1 | 2009 | Matthew Stafford, Det. | 4650 | 29 | 69 | 2 | 371.4 | 4 |
| 5 | 2009 | Mark Sanchez, NYJ | 3474 | 26 | 103 | 6 | 324.0 | 10 |
| 3 | 2008 | Matt Ryan, Atl. | 4924 | 35 | 125 | 3 | 428.2 | 3 |
| 1 | 2007 | JaMarcus Russell, Oak. | 2423 | 13 | 127 | 1 | 191.9 | 24 |
| 3 | 2006 | Vince Young, Ten. | 2199 | 12 | 552 | 7 | 257.2 | 12 |
| 10 | 2006 | Matt Leinart, Ariz. | 2547 | 11 | 49 | 2 | 188.3 | 24 |
| 1 | 2005 | Alex Smith, K.C. | 4042 | 26 | 355 | 1 | 347.6 | 6 |
| 4 | 2004 | Philip Rivers, S.D. | 4710 | 30 | 52 | 0 | 362.7 | 4 |
| 1 | 2004 | Eli Manning, NYG | 3762 | 24 | 80 | 1 | 300.1 | 4 |
| 1 | 2003 | Carson Palmer, Cin. | 3836 | 32 | 41 | 1 | 331.9 | 1 |
| 7 | 2003 | Byron Leftwich, Jac. | 2941 | 15 | 148 | 2 | 242.2 | 18 |
| 1 | 2002 | David Carr, Hou. | 3531 | 16 | 299 | 0 | 270.5 | 14 |
| 3 | 2002 | Joey Harrington, Det. | 3047 | 19 | 175 | 0 | 247.9 | 17 |
| 1 | 2001 | Michael Vick, Atl. | 2474 | 20 | 1039 | 2 | 320.7 | 4 |
All of these guys weren't superstars. Some got into the lineup quicker and got a much longer leash than quarterbacks selected later in the round. No one is calling Blake Bortles a successful pick, and Jameis Winston is currently unemployed.
But when 3-4 quarterbacks (including Joe Burrow, pictured) come off the board in the top 10 picks this Thursday, pretty good odds at least 2 of them turn in a top-1o fantasy season in the next few years. There are more guys like Matt Ryan and Matthew Stafford than JaMarcus Russell and Blaine Gabbert.
--Andy Richardson