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Factoid

Top-10 Quarterbacks

More than half have had noteworthy seasons

Last week I ran an item about first-round quarterbacks drafted outside the top 10; what kind of fantasy impact can generally be expected from those players. Here's the companion factoid: how quarterbacks selected in the top 10 have worked out. No surprise: a whole lot better.

Among quarterbacks drafted 11-32 in the last 30 years, only a quarter (7 of 28) had a top-10 fantasy season at some point in their NFL careers. But put that same criteria on players drafted in the top 10 picks, and more than half (19 of 34) have done so. Considering four of the exceptions were drafted in the last two years, very possible we see that percentage creep upward. If Baker Mayfield, Daniel Jones, and Sam Darnold all prove worthy of their draft status, we could see that hit rate move up to two-thirds.

For this table I cropped the list at 20 years. Table shows each player's top season passing and rushing stats; those with a top-10 fantasy finish are in bold.

QBS DRAFTED IN THE TOP 10, 2000-2019, BEST SEASONS
PkDraftPlayerPassTDRunTDPPRRk
12019Kyler Murray, Ariz.3722205444350.56
62019Daniel Jones, NYG3027242792291.320
72018Josh Allen, Buff.3089205109345.58
12018Baker Mayfield, Cle.3827221413313.516
32018Sam Darnold, NYJ2865171381231.124
102018Josh Rosen, Ariz.2278111380173.732
102017Patrick Mahomes, K.C.5097502722496.11
22017Mitchell Trubisky, Chi.3223244213325.315
12016Jared Goff, LAR4688321082397.26
22016Carson Wentz, Phil.3296332990334.78
12015Jameis Winston, T.B.5109332501426.52
22015Marcus Mariota, Ten.3426263492322.214
32014Blake Bortles, Jac.4428353102406.43
12012Andrew Luck, Ind.4761402733443.41
82012Ryan Tannehill, Mia.4045273111348.010
22012Robert Griffin, Was.3200208157363.510
12011Cam Newton, Car.38373563610455.51
82011Jake Locker, Ten.2176102911183.929
102011Blaine Gabbert, Jac.221412980168.527
12010Sam Bradford, St.L.3702211241295.517
12009Matthew Stafford, Det.465029692371.44
52009Mark Sanchez, NYJ3474261036324.010
32008Matt Ryan, Atl.4924351253428.23
12007JaMarcus Russell, Oak.2423131271191.924
32006Vince Young, Ten.2199125527257.212
102006Matt Leinart, Ariz.254711492188.324
12005Alex Smith, K.C.4042263551347.66
42004Philip Rivers, S.D.471030520362.74
12004Eli Manning, NYG376224801300.14
12003Carson Palmer, Cin.383632411331.91
72003Byron Leftwich, Jac.2941151482242.218
12002David Carr, Hou.3531162990270.514
32002Joey Harrington, Det.3047191750247.917
12001Michael Vick, Atl.24742010392320.74

All of these guys weren't superstars. Some got into the lineup quicker and got a much longer leash than quarterbacks selected later in the round. No one is calling Blake Bortles a successful pick, and Jameis Winston is currently unemployed.

But when 3-4 quarterbacks (including Joe Burrow, pictured) come off the board in the top 10 picks this Thursday, pretty good odds at least 2 of them turn in a top-1o fantasy season in the next few years. There are more guys like Matt Ryan and Matthew Stafford than JaMarcus Russell and Blaine Gabbert.

--Andy Richardson

Fantasy Index