DeAndre Hopkins has passed his physical. He’s now a member of the Arizona Cardinals. Are huge numbers going to follow? Kliff Kingsbury ran pass-crazy offenses in college, and they’ve got Kyler Murray at quarterback.
Optimism tends to be the general vibe that I get. I think they’ll be plenty of folks out there who’ll be eager to select Hopkins. I tend to be more of a cautious, pessimistic type.
Arizona didn’t put up huge passing numbers last year, and the track record of elite receivers on new teams is remarkably low.
Since the merger in 1970, 20 wide receivers have put up top-10 numbers (using PPR scoring), then moved to new teams. Only one of those players then finished high than 15th in his first season with his new team, and he played long before most of us had ever heard of fantasy football – Harold Jackson, back in 1972.
Only five others of these receivers finished in the top 20 in Year No. 1 with their new team (all ranking between 15th and 18th). That’s a remarkably low hit rate – 70 percent of these top-10 receivers ranked outside the top 20 after being transplanted into new offenses.
Of these 20 receivers, Jackson's numbers were up just a little bit, but the other 19 all declined. (Again that's assuming PPR scoring -- comparing the different between the first season with the new team and the last season with the original club.)
| TOP-10 WIDE RECEIVERS ON NEW TEAMS | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Old | New | No | Yds | TD | Diff |
| 1972 | Bob Grim | Min. | NYG | 5 | 67 | 1 | -90% |
| 1973 | • Harold Jackson | Phil. | LAR | 40 | 874 | 13 | 3% |
| 1975 | Ron Jessie | Det. | LAR | 41 | 547 | 3 | -26% |
| 1976 | John Gilliam | Min. | Atl. | 21 | 292 | 2 | -64% |
| 1978 | • Harold Jackson | LAR | N.E. | 37 | 743 | 6 | -2% |
| 1981 | John Jefferson | S.D. | G.B. | 39 | 632 | 4 | -57% |
| 1992 | Drew Hill | Hou. | Atl. | 60 | 623 | 3 | -38% |
| 1994 | • Anthony Miller | S.D. | Den. | 60 | 1,107 | 5 | -16% |
| 1998 | Yancey Thigpen | Pitt. | Ten. | 38 | 493 | 3 | -60% |
| 2000 | Keyshawn Johnson | NYJ | T.B. | 71 | 874 | 8 | -19% |
| 2003 | Peerless Price | Buff. | Atl. | 64 | 838 | 3 | -39% |
| 2004 | Keenan McCardell | T.B. | S.D. | 31 | 393 | 1 | -70% |
| 2005 | Muhsin Muhammad | Car. | Chi. | 64 | 750 | 4 | -51% |
| 2010 | Brandon Marshall | Den. | Mia. | 86 | 1,014 | 3 | -26% |
| 2013 | Wes Welker | N.E. | Den. | 73 | 778 | 10 | -28% |
| 2014 | Eric Decker | Den. | NYJ | 74 | 962 | 5 | -29% |
| 2015 | • Jeremy Maclin | Phil. | K.C. | 87 | 1,088 | 8 | -11% |
| 2017 | • Brandin Cooks | N.O. | N.E. | 65 | 1,082 | 7 | -10% |
| 2018 | • Jarvis Landry | Mia. | Cle. | 81 | 976 | 5 | -17% |
| 2019 | Antonio Brown | Pitt. | N.E. | 4 | 56 | 1 | -95% |
| 2020 | DeAndre Hopkins | Hou. | Ariz. | ? | ? | ? | ? |
I’m not sure if Hopkins will be in my top 10. I haven’t yet tried to stack an overall board. I don’t think he’ll hit on many downfield passes. I think he’ll be catching short balls underneath, with few chunk plays. He’s a pretty sweet player, of course, but if you were trying to pick an over-under on where he might close for the 2020 season, about 15th might seem about right.
—Ian Allan