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Factoid

Kyler Murray

Cardinals QB one of century's best rookies

In a few days a quarterback will be taken No. 1 overall, so a brief look back at one of the best quarterbacks taken No. 1 overall this century. Based on their rookie seasons, anyway. It happened just last year, with Kyler Murray.

No one knows how Murray's career will turn out of course, but we can say for sure how well his rookie season did, at least in the fantasy realm. Since 2000, only three rookies have been better. And considering how those three guys' careers have turned out, maybe Murray will end up being better than any of them.

Murray passed for 3,722 yards and ran for 544 more. The guys who finished with more fantasy points (1 point for every 10 rushing or 20 passing yards, with 4-point TD passes and 6-point TD runs) than him in their first seasons? One is currently unemployed, one retired early, and one has seen his talent sapped by injuries -- he's drifting around the league as a journeyman backup.

ROOKIE QUARTERBACKS, FF POINTS (2000-PRESENT)
YearPlayerYdsTDP2 PtYdsTDPts
2011Cam Newton, Car.405121270614445
2012Andrew Luck, Ind.43742302555366
2012Robert Griffin III, Was.32002008157364
2019Kyler Murray, Ariz.37222035444351
2015Jameis Winston, T.B.40422212106349
2016Dak Prescott, Dall.36672302826340
2012Russell Wilson, Sea.31182604894333
2018Baker Mayfield, Clev.37252721310311
2019Daniel Jones, NYG30272422792291
2019Gardner Minshew, Jac.32712133440288
2016Carson Wentz, Phil.37821621502284
2013Geno Smith, NYJ30461203666273
2011Andy Dalton, Cin.33982001521271
2015Marcus Mariota, Tenn.28181932523270
2017DeShone Kizer, Clev.28941104195261
2010Sam Bradford, St.L.3512180631260
2012Christian Ponder, Min.29351812532258
2006Vince Young, Ten.21991215527257
2018Josh Allen, Buff.20741016318257
2014Derek Carr, Oak.3270210920257
2008Matt Ryan, Atl.34401611041254
2012Ryan Tannehill, Mia.32941222112250
2001Chris Weinke, Car.29311101286239
2008Joe Flacco, Balt.29711411802237
2012Brandon Weeden, Clev.33851401110236
2014Blake Bortles, Jac.29081114190233
2014Teddy Bridgewater, Min.29191422091233
2004Carson Palmer, Cin.2897182471232
2018Sam Darnold, NYJ28651701381231
2003Byron Leftwich, Jac.28191401082220
2004Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt.26211701441219
2013Mike Glennon, T.B.2608190370210
2017Deshaun Watson, Hou.16991922692204
2009Mark Sanchez, NYJ24441221063203

And 2019 was a pretty good year for rookie quarterbacks. Daniel Jones and Gardner Minshew weren't Week 1 starters, but both also finished with impressive campaigns. Between their passing and rushing production, both also finished as top-10 rookie quarterbacks over the last 20 years.

A quick glance at the list shows that it's too soon to say any of three will go on to be superstars, NFL or fantasy. The presence of not only Griffin but also Marcus Mariota, DeShone Kizer and Geno Smith in the top 20 makes that clear.

So we'll see. But these are the kind of rookie numbers that Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert and Tua Tagovailoa will be chasing this season, should they wind up in the starting lineup. Burrow, who will be chosen No. 1 overall and was the most productive runner of the three, looks like the best bet.

--Andy Richardson

Fantasy Index