In a few days a quarterback will be taken No. 1 overall, so a brief look back at one of the best quarterbacks taken No. 1 overall this century. Based on their rookie seasons, anyway. It happened just last year, with Kyler Murray.
No one knows how Murray's career will turn out of course, but we can say for sure how well his rookie season did, at least in the fantasy realm. Since 2000, only three rookies have been better. And considering how those three guys' careers have turned out, maybe Murray will end up being better than any of them.
Murray passed for 3,722 yards and ran for 544 more. The guys who finished with more fantasy points (1 point for every 10 rushing or 20 passing yards, with 4-point TD passes and 6-point TD runs) than him in their first seasons? One is currently unemployed, one retired early, and one has seen his talent sapped by injuries -- he's drifting around the league as a journeyman backup.
ROOKIE QUARTERBACKS, FF POINTS (2000-PRESENT) | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | Yds | TDP | 2 Pt | Yds | TD | Pts |
2011 | Cam Newton, Car. | 4051 | 21 | 2 | 706 | 14 | 445 |
2012 | Andrew Luck, Ind. | 4374 | 23 | 0 | 255 | 5 | 366 |
2012 | Robert Griffin III, Was. | 3200 | 20 | 0 | 815 | 7 | 364 |
2019 | Kyler Murray, Ariz. | 3722 | 20 | 3 | 544 | 4 | 351 |
2015 | Jameis Winston, T.B. | 4042 | 22 | 1 | 210 | 6 | 349 |
2016 | Dak Prescott, Dall. | 3667 | 23 | 0 | 282 | 6 | 340 |
2012 | Russell Wilson, Sea. | 3118 | 26 | 0 | 489 | 4 | 333 |
2018 | Baker Mayfield, Clev. | 3725 | 27 | 2 | 131 | 0 | 311 |
2019 | Daniel Jones, NYG | 3027 | 24 | 2 | 279 | 2 | 291 |
2019 | Gardner Minshew, Jac. | 3271 | 21 | 3 | 344 | 0 | 288 |
2016 | Carson Wentz, Phil. | 3782 | 16 | 2 | 150 | 2 | 284 |
2013 | Geno Smith, NYJ | 3046 | 12 | 0 | 366 | 6 | 273 |
2011 | Andy Dalton, Cin. | 3398 | 20 | 0 | 152 | 1 | 271 |
2015 | Marcus Mariota, Tenn. | 2818 | 19 | 3 | 252 | 3 | 270 |
2017 | DeShone Kizer, Clev. | 2894 | 11 | 0 | 419 | 5 | 261 |
2010 | Sam Bradford, St.L. | 3512 | 18 | 0 | 63 | 1 | 260 |
2012 | Christian Ponder, Min. | 2935 | 18 | 1 | 253 | 2 | 258 |
2006 | Vince Young, Ten. | 2199 | 12 | 1 | 552 | 7 | 257 |
2018 | Josh Allen, Buff. | 2074 | 10 | 1 | 631 | 8 | 257 |
2014 | Derek Carr, Oak. | 3270 | 21 | 0 | 92 | 0 | 257 |
2008 | Matt Ryan, Atl. | 3440 | 16 | 1 | 104 | 1 | 254 |
2012 | Ryan Tannehill, Mia. | 3294 | 12 | 2 | 211 | 2 | 250 |
2001 | Chris Weinke, Car. | 2931 | 11 | 0 | 128 | 6 | 239 |
2008 | Joe Flacco, Balt. | 2971 | 14 | 1 | 180 | 2 | 237 |
2012 | Brandon Weeden, Clev. | 3385 | 14 | 0 | 111 | 0 | 236 |
2014 | Blake Bortles, Jac. | 2908 | 11 | 1 | 419 | 0 | 233 |
2014 | Teddy Bridgewater, Min. | 2919 | 14 | 2 | 209 | 1 | 233 |
2004 | Carson Palmer, Cin. | 2897 | 18 | 2 | 47 | 1 | 232 |
2018 | Sam Darnold, NYJ | 2865 | 17 | 0 | 138 | 1 | 231 |
2003 | Byron Leftwich, Jac. | 2819 | 14 | 0 | 108 | 2 | 220 |
2004 | Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt. | 2621 | 17 | 0 | 144 | 1 | 219 |
2013 | Mike Glennon, T.B. | 2608 | 19 | 0 | 37 | 0 | 210 |
2017 | Deshaun Watson, Hou. | 1699 | 19 | 2 | 269 | 2 | 204 |
2009 | Mark Sanchez, NYJ | 2444 | 12 | 2 | 106 | 3 | 203 |
And 2019 was a pretty good year for rookie quarterbacks. Daniel Jones and Gardner Minshew weren't Week 1 starters, but both also finished with impressive campaigns. Between their passing and rushing production, both also finished as top-10 rookie quarterbacks over the last 20 years.
A quick glance at the list shows that it's too soon to say any of three will go on to be superstars, NFL or fantasy. The presence of not only Griffin but also Marcus Mariota, DeShone Kizer and Geno Smith in the top 20 makes that clear.
So we'll see. But these are the kind of rookie numbers that Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert and Tua Tagovailoa will be chasing this season, should they wind up in the starting lineup. Burrow, who will be chosen No. 1 overall and was the most productive runner of the three, looks like the best bet.
--Andy Richardson