My dynasty league holds its annual rookie draft the weekend after the actual NFL Draft. It's a three-round affair in which you can also select unrostered veterans (e.g. Rob Gronkowski) if you wish. But the vast majority of players will be rookies, and that's who I'll be talking about while projecting it.
Two important notes. These are not my rankings, they're how I think the draft will go -- in hopes of aiding others who have rookie drafts coming up -- not necessarily how it should go. And second, it's a dynasty league that starts 1 quarterback, 4-point touchdown passes, points per reception, and you keep everyone for as long as you want. So the fact that J.K. Dobbins might not get on the field much this year is not a reason to downgrade him too much. Patrick Mahomes and Ray Rice didn't play much as rookies. They were fantastic rookie draft picks.
1.01. Jonathan Taylor, Colts.
1.02. Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Kansas City.
1.03. D'Andre Swift, Lions.
I'm pretty sure these will be the top 3 picks. I'm less confident in the order, because there aren't 12 Andy Richardsons in this draft. Taylor goes to a Colts team with a great offensive line and coaching mind running the show. He was a big producer in college. He'll start out behind Marlon Mack, but Indianapolis wouldn't have selected Taylor as early as they did if they didn't plan on that changing. Similar story with Swift (pictured), aside from being a big college producer. He could start this year, given Kerryon Johnson's injury history and general ordinariness. Edwards-Helaire, I kind of think we've discussed him enough here on this site. He might go No. 1, but it's not a lock.
1.04. Cam Akers, Rams.
1.05. J.K. Dobbins, Ravens.
It's possible the wideouts will start with these picks. But I think the three-down potential of Akers and talent/landing spot of Dobbins will get them picked either here or at least no lower than 6-7. Akers' selection is a vote of little confidence in Darrell Henderson. Dobbins goes to a great running team whose starter is 30 and whose backups are seemingly viewed as backups.
1.06. Jerry Jeudy, Broncos.
1.07. CeeDee Lamb, Cowboys.
1.08. Henry Ruggs, Raiders.
Wide receivers will start coming off the board possibly as early as 1.04, possibly as late as 1.07. The depth and lack of a clear No. 1 could push them a little lower than you might expect. Jeudy is my personal favorite due to route-running and Alabama background -- they've got a nice recent track record of NFL success. Negative is I haven't seen enough of Drew Lock to be confident in him, but I think it's risky to overrate that in dynasty. Terry McLaurin was great last year with about the worst quarterbacking imaginable. Everyone dinged A.J. Brown a year ago due to lesser Tennessee passing game and perceived No. 1 Corey Davis. Focus on the player, not the situation. So the fact that there's only one football and other top targets in Dallas shouldn't scare anyone away from Lamb, who's a big college producer and should step right in to Dallas' three-wideout passing game. Slotting Ruggs 3rd because of the iffy nature of big-play speedsters (is he Tyreek Hill or John Ross?) and because Oakland has two quarterbacks who prefer checkdowns to big plays. But I'd be kidding myself to say Ruggs definitely won't be the best of these three wideouts -- obviously Mayock/Gruden thought so.
1.09. DeShawn Vaughn, Buccaneers.
1.10. Jalen Reagor, Eagles.
1.11. Justin Jefferson, Vikings.
1.12. Brandon Aiyuk, 49ers.
If one of running backs not selected earliest jumps his draft position, it's definitely the guy with three-down potential in a Bruce Arians-Tom Brady offense with only Ronald Jones ahead of him. Then I suspect the other three first-round wideouts will go in some order. San Francisco says Aiyuk was their top receiver in the draft, though in fairness everyone says that kind of thing. I liked Jefferson a lot based on college tape; I'm wondering how it's going to work out since both he and Adam Thielen have been big producers in the slot. Both these teams seem to prefer to run the ball, as well. Reagor being selected before both these guys in the actual draft dismayed some Eagles fans, but again, little consensus on these players. Philadelphia has a big void at the position behind Alshon Jeffery (who won't necessarily be in Philadelphia long-term).
2.01. Joe Burrow, Bengals.
2.02. Tee Higgins, Bengals.
2.03. Michael Pittman, Colts.
2.04. Denzel Mims, Jets.
2.05. Zack Moss, Bills.
2.06. Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins.
Annually people wonder why the quarterbacks don't go earlier. Well, it's a 12-team league and there are 32 starting NFL quarterbacks. Everybody has one good starter, and some people have two. Yes if you have an older quarterback you want to land a good young one who will start for the next 7-8 years, but there's not as much urgency as there is to maybe land the next DeAndre Hopkins or LeVeon Bell, who will actually win leagues more than someone like Burrow or Tagovailoa is likely to.
Some like Moss more than I do and maybe he'll get drafted earlier. I think he's an ordinary talent headed for a committee with Devin Singletary, who I like more. Higgins reportedly got first-round consideration from the Ravens. He's a big, talented guy who might take over as Cincinnati's No. 1 wideout sooner rather than later -- could easily have been drafted in the first round over some of those players. Mims seemingly fell a bit and the Jets have no track record whatsoever developing young wideouts (neither does Adam Gase, though he'll be gone soon enough). Pittman's got the nice bloodlines, a nice back story, and also great size and the ability to win in contested situations. He could also go earlier in this draft. It's going to be fascinating.
2.07. Cole Kmet, Bears.
2.08. Laviska Shenault, Jaguars.
2.09. Justin Herbert, Chargers.
2.10. AJ Dillon, Packers.
2.11. Devin Duvernay, Ravens.
2.12. Chase Claypool, Steelers.
Tight ends get 1.5 points per reception in this league. The Bears inspire little confidence they have any idea what they're doing, but Kmet was the top tight end in the class and Jimmy Graham looked pretty washed up for much of last year. Shenault has a worrying history of injuries and surgeries and goes to an organization whose "plan" looks sketchy. I wonder if the Chargers preferred Tua to Herbert; we'll never know. Dillon is huge but adds impressive athleticism to that size -- tops in vertical and broad jump for running backs at the combine. Duvernay and Claypool go to teams that don't have a ton of proven players at wideout.
3.01. Joshua Kelley, Chargers.
3.02. Jordan Love, Packers.
3.03. Van Jefferson, Rams.
3.04. Devin Asiasi, Patriots.
3.05. Adam Trautman, Saints.
3.06. Harrison Bryant, Browns.
3.07. Dalton Keene, Patriots.
3.08. Tyler Johnson, Buccaneers.
3.09. DeeJay Dallas, Seahawks.
3.10. Lynn Bowden, Raiders.
3.11. Darrynton Evans, Titans.
3.12. KJ Hamler, Broncos.
While it was a deep draft for talent, I think this group makes an argument for shopping 3rd-round rookie picks. Many of these guys -- a quarterback who might sit for years, both shot in the dark Patriots tight ends, several other tight ends and wideout selections -- are no more sure things than rookies who won't be selected in this draft. Kelley, who could beat out Justin Jackson in Los Angeles, and Johnson, projected in mocks to go earlier, are among the more intriguing players.
After the draft is over, I'll recap it and we can see how it actually went.